We are at war and most UK politicians appear to be in denial about that fact. That worries me, because the consequences are enormous.
It can, of course, be said that this is Putin's war. And, of course, it is. It would not be happening without him. But let's also be clear. This is not only his war. He has allies.
Internationally Russia has support for what it is doing, and not just from the usual culprits like Belarus and Notth Korea. There are others who are all too keen on the maintenance of fiercely oppressive regimes that show scant regard for human rights who are happy to support him.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are at the forefront of these, and just happen to be willing to help him by restricting oil supplies.
These two are not alone though. India may not be far behind.
And quite where China stands s hard to guess since it can pursue its own agendas, but it too is far from friendly towards western democracy.
Add these alliances up and Putin is not alone in the world. Add into the mix the many developing countries who are dance sitting and have no great love for the vestiges of western imperialism from which they still suffer, and for which few apologies have been given, and to presume that the world is united against Putin would be a dangerous assumption to make.
That, however, may not be be biggest threat we have to worry about. The real threat in the UK, the US and maybe elsewhere might be domestic. To ignore the reality of the Putin - Trump - Johnson - Farage axis right now would be very dangerous.
Trump is still expressing his admiration for Putin. That he shares Putin's contempt for democracy, truth and human rights is also apparent.
Meanwhile, embeddedness of Russia within the Conservative Party and its pantheon of support has now became plain for all to see. The extension of that influence into the City can no longer be disguised. That we have a government that has been profoundly linked to Putin is beyond doubt.
Farage was openly questioning what he framed as the injustice of sanctions on oligarchs on GB News last night. His support for Putin has always been as clear as Trump's.
But past support is not the threat we face now. The threat is to come. It is easy to see how this will unfold.
This war will, unless radical action is taken, lead to a massive cost of living crisis in the UK, USA, and beyond. Biden is already saying there is nothing he can do about this. Politicians here would appear to be of similar mind, although that there is nothing they can do is not true (and there is a blog to come on this). But for now what matters is that they think this. That is enough for the Putin - Far right - Farage axis to swing into action.
As is always the case with fascists, the narrative that they will spin will be simple. They will be saying that the pressure on the cost of living in the UK is all down to sanctions. It is not, of course. Brexit and Covid are also major factors. But truth was never a matter of concern to them.
Then they will say that we are suffering these sanctions to support a neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine. We are not, of course. There are neo-Nazis in Ukraine, but no more than here, and maybe less.
And then they will play the blatant racist card, which is that not only are we suffering a cost of living crisis as a result but that refugees will flood the country if this continues. This will be closely linked to a suggestion that all these refugees will be taking away people's jobs.
So, they will claim that parties committed to democracy are selling the UK short, all to support eastern Europeans who, they will claim, are in any event Russian in many cases (again, not true).
What will they propose? The plan will be typically simple. It will be:
1. Peace with Russia.
2. Agreement to Russian occupation of Ukraine.
3. An end to sanctions.
4. Support for the exclusion of the Baltic states from the EU and NATO.
5. A demand for the demilitarisation of Finland, and maybe Sweden too.
6. An end to net-zero and climate change measures as fossil fuel is burned to restore energy supplies.
7. A ban on refugees, and a possible enforced return of those from Ukraine to that country, which will now be declared peaceful.
The plan will not, of course, address the real concerns of ordinary people in the UK, but then that will never be its intention. The plan will exist to let the far right take power without the intention of conceding it again, which is a point we have already seen to have been nearly reached by Johnson.
The democrats in the UK need to wake up to this. The plan is easy to imagine. It is easy to anticipate that as the cost of living escalates in this country it could be delivered with an initially willingly compliant electorate supporting it. Fascists usually get to power via the ballot box.
Unless the UK's democrats react now we could lose to this agenda, so easily.
What to do? That is really for another blog, but a taster here will do.
First, recognise we are at war. Demand a national government as a result. The opportunity for this is short, but exists.
Second, put in place price controls on energy, food and other critical supplies.
Third, work with other democracies to ensure each of them has access to essential supplies at real cost, not those promoted by market speculation.
Fourth, ban profiteering.
Fifth, introduce wartime taxation measures that are sharply redistributive, as was the case in World War 2. Those with broadest shoulders and the greatest gains from democracy must be seen to pay more for this.
Sixth, consider rationing to ensure the needs of all are really met at prices they can afford.
Seventh, appreciate that debt is not an issue. Money is always available to do anything of which we are capable.
Eighth, work with other countries in alliance to fight fascism.
Populism can be beaten. But right now its chances of victory are rising by the day. And so far democratic politicians are showing no awareness of this. As a result I am very worried.
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This post seems so way over the top that I’m not sure how to respond, but for once I don’t agree with anything you’ve said here. I’ve cut out most of the detail of my reply as it boils down to the following.
We are not at war. Ukraine has been invaded, not the UK. Russia has threatened NATO if it intervenes and so far NATO has desisted. We have imposed sanctions on Russia as punishment for their aggression. The consequences of those sanctions are what will cause economic harm to the West and the rest of the world, especially if Russia imposes export bans because it is not allowed to trade in dollars. In other words, they are our own political choice.
If politicians admit they can do nothing about inflation, people will not vote for them and apathy may let in the right wing and their simple solutions, but the solutions you are describing, whilst they might benefit ordinary people look very much like those a populist politician might propose. Most especially a “national government” which no-one voted for to “protect democracy”.
Our democracy does need protection, all the time, but this kind of over-reaction doesn’t help. Call me a nazi or a Putin sympathiser if you like (I’m not) and ban me if you must, but this is complete over-reaction.
You are entitled to disagree with me
I am entitled to conclude that you have misread the threat we face
Note that already the cost of living crisis is blamed on Ukraine, when much is Brexit and Covid
This is not overreaction. This is just foresight
The list is over the top and adds to th cheering on of a war on both sides. The approach of the West to the end of the Cold War has been evident since 1990. The push eastwards of NATO and the Eu has not brought the same level prosperity to all but the same levels of inequality that neoliberalism has established in the West. Does the promise of ” not an inch further eastwards” mean nothing. After Ww1 Keynes wrote the Economic Consequences of the Peace foretelling future conflict. I see similarities in the peace imposed on Russia as similar with the damage of the Chicago Boys reforms sowing the seeds of economic damage and the neo-con armaments industry following militarily. Do we not remember Cuba when the US felt threatened by missiles on its borders? Like most wars there are no good guys.
Another Putin apologist for the banned list
You are clearly at war with reality!! ..
Actually, come to think of it, wasn’t this also also your genius plan to win the wars on Covid, climate change, and the pedestrianisation of Norwich city centre?
Pardon??????
Err the bit about Norwich was made up.. but serves to highlight the point you are OTT.. it’s as if at every opportunity your mantra is the great reset for a socialist big state govt.
I am firmly in favour of a mixed economy
I am emphatically opposed to the far right
You clearly are not and that signifies that you are amongst those I am suggesting will exploit this situation
Of course you are trolling me in that case
The far right has the added advantage that much of what they do will be supported by those on the far left who have swallowed the Russian propaganda that Ukraine is a neo-Nazi state. Some on the left seem to have an emotional attachment to the state that had the first “Marxist” revolution, a revolution that, as Karl Popper pointed out, bears very little resemblance to the revolution Marx actually predicted.
Why we can’t have this all the time, regardless of war?
What’s not to like, what’s not to keep?
A naive question on profiteering.
Petrol stations have large storage tanks of fuel. These are replenished by tankers. When the price of oil goes up prices at the pump go up quickly afterwards. Hasn’t the fuel in the stations tanks already been bought at the previously lower price?
Is this is profiteering or are the mechanisms more complex?
I think you will find the tanks are not that big
And they price at replacement cost
A fatuous question by me then, still a breath of fresh air compared to some of the.comments today!
🙂
The rise in energy costs is an existential threat. The price rise kicked off in August last year & was tubo charged end-Feb. The effects of the rise in energy prices have yet to feed through to the general economy – when it does – it will feel like war (more hungry cold people, prices rocketing, civil unrest).
I agree broadly with the measures proposed. They will not happen under a tory-gov.
In terms of food:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/11/uk-farmers-warn-soaring-gas-costs-could-cut-food-production?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
There is an alternative route that is trivial to implement: go balls out for renewables. Not just the big stuff – but small-scale embedded. The article linked to mentions protected crops such as cucumbers as bing affected by energy prices. Oddly, I have a proto renewable energy project in Ireland – all about cucumbers. Via renewables, we can provide zero-carbon energy at a lower cost (& stable for circa 20 years) to the growers. & no subsidies -the project has its own business case. This example could be quite easily replicated, the issues are not technical or equipment related – they are all organisational.
I remember the queues for petrol in the 1970s (yes I to pushed my car to the pumps). That was all war related. Inflation of the 1970s was also war related. We have a similar situation now. But, this time around we have deployable alternatives that could address the problems we now face. Which leaves the open question: can society organise itself to address these problems? I am not hopeful, given the current line up of political clowns & chancers.
I agree with all that Mike
The performance of the Home Secretary defies adequate critical description. In a grotesque new low, in Parliament Prit Patel completely erroneously invoked the Windrush scandal to justify the abject failure of her refugee policy and its execution; and present its swift and disaster as proof of its triumphant success. I do not think I have ever seen anyone so ostentatiously displaying their worst failings, their profound inadequacy in office, as vindication of their infallible judgement. It beggars belief.
I can anly assume Patel was not deserted by the Conservative benches on the spot, only because the sensible among the lobby fodder were baffled and bewildered by her incoherent argument. Patel’s blustering, churlish, dismal performance at the Despatch Box, time after time, is quite beyond shameful; but then, clearly she has no shame.
Here is what the Windrush generation and supporters said about Patel, in 2020: In a letter to the Home Office, prominent Windrush campaigners and support organisations described remarks made by the Home Secretary, who had attacked those attempting to stop Windrush deportation flights, as “deeply insulting and patronising”; going on to say her remarks were were “‘ill-judged and ill-informed’ – and accused her of using their name to try to score political points.
They reacted after Patel used a newspaper interview to hit out at more than 80 black public figures who called for the cancellation of a deportation flight to Jamaica of several convicted criminals. The coverage included quotes from Home Office sources criticising lawyers acting on behalf of people targeted for deportation.” (Guardian, 4th December, 2020).
Patel assumed we would all forget her toxic history of failure, punctuated only by bullying Home Office staff (Sir Alex Allen Report. He resigned when Johnson failed the standards test, but we knew that would happen. A BBC Summary of the Allen Report is here – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55015488). We haven’t forgotten. We will not forget. It is time Britain required a political penalty for the abject failure of politicians. Patel is a catastrophic disaster in office, and a humiliating embarrassment for Britain, throughout the world.
Patel must go.
I totally agree John but she does seem to be popular in the Tory party and its supporters and that is even more worrying to me at least.
Patel is the lead minister for immigrant bashing in the government and its what that hard core Conservative base, and quite few socially conservative ‘Labour’ voters want to hear. I’ll never accept that Brexit was not based primarily on anything other than xenophobia and just plain racism. With darker adjectives from those behind the campaign. One only has to look at their campaigning messages and what they focused on. Most people couldn’t spell sovrinty, let alone tell you what it actually means. That Patel comes from an immigrant background is especially nauseating. However, having lived, travelled and worked in India and East Africa I am sadly well aware that racism is not restricted to white Anglo-Saxons.
We have a group in power who are entirely prepared to lie through their teeth on a daily basis and say whatever they think will enable them to cling to power. Whilst rewarding their mates. That they are burning £8bn plus of PPE, much of it corruptly or incompetently acquired should be headline news but they get away with it.
Richard’s piece might sound alarmist but listening to today’s Right (and their echo chamber on the hard Left), its a pretty reasonable projection of where events may well be taking us.
Wow!
The naivety from some on display here is very worrying.
Having spent a lot of time with historian Tim Snyder’s writings on the growth and practice of fascism in the 1930’s/40’s I can only support Richard’s blog on this issue.
Even if some of the more sceptical of you here read his short book ‘On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from Twentieth Century’ (2017) I think you might wake up a little – it’s only 126 pages long.
Fascism feeds off the hardship of the masses – their hardship in this country already created by Covid, BREXIT and austerity seems likely to get worse. To think that there are no forces at work ready to exploit this situation is simply ignorance personified. It is also a potential death wish for our society and for your loved ones and even yourselves.
This is not a time to be naïve – believe you me.
And for those who talk about the UK having a socialist Government – when did we ever have one? Why do some of you talk in terms of phantoms and choose not to deal with the monsters we have in reality?
We’ve had nearly over 40 years of Thatcherism – not socialism and look at where we are. Isn’t it about time some of you actually opened your eyes and dealt with it?
And BTW – Amazon, car loans, Just Eat, Facebook, eBay, Apple, Air BnB, Location Location Location, Snapchat etc., – these are not forms of democracy OK? They’re just outputs from markets.
Whilst you track your investments, track energy prices online, check your credit rating, order your food and goods on line or look at the latest cute kitten picture on wherever – just what is your Government up to eh?
Phew!
I recommend On Tyranny
I recommend the illustrated edition of 2021. The first rule, in the Prologue at the very beginning: do not obey in advance. All 20 are there spread over two pages. Some of them hinge on individuals thinking for themselves and not simply believing what they are told. It is hard work to do, but it is what must be done. Especially now. I would add a corollary: do not believe anything Johnson or any member of his cabinet say or write; they are all inveterate liars.
Some complacent replies to your post but I think you are right. There is a huge risk to this country. Farage is demanding a referendum on energy. It will be taken seriously by the usual suspects, who will use their influence to ensure it is featured on current affairs programmes where carefully chosen guests will discuss the idea and propound its virtues. Malignant politicians will turn it into a culture war. The climate crisis will be marginalised and populist support will be roused for fossil fuels. Expect fracking to be a hot issue. Expect the BBC to indulge fully in false equivalence. Those who dare put up the green defence will be harangued as woke lefties. The privileged elite. Energy will be the prerogative of the hard working masses. The clamour for a referendum will be exacerbated by extreme right wing interests and all the while it will sit nicely with the objectives of Putin’s Russia. Just like Brexit. And hatred and division will be the consequence. Forget carbon zero. The coarsening of public debate will further undermine democracy as tolerance for dissent is actively suppressed. Democracy is most certainly under threat. Your analysis is prescient.
Thanks
I agree, and your illustration is apt
On the question of whether we are at war, in an era when few conflicts are officially declared wars I think we are at war. We are using all means at our disposal to defend a fellow democracy from its invader, as we did in 1939 in defence of Poland. We did not send forces to Poland then as any intervention there would have been pointless and suicidal just as direct intervention on the ground and in the air to support Ukraine now would be, assuming that Russia would deploy nuclear weapons. If we were to recognise that we are at war we could introduce rationing etc.
Are your critics making a “category error“? Are they failing to recognise the difference between peace and war? Are we not really at war, diplomacy having failed? I think we are. I believe and hope that time will show that the graver mistake was Putin’s, and that he will lose as a result of it. If we are at war, then we must adjust our feelings and actions accordingly. We did not believe that Russia would repeat their behaviour in Chechnya. They did. We know how they will follow it up.
The creation of the NHS was a result of wartime thinking. No doubt it needs to continue to be developed, but without the Second World War I don’t think it would have existed.
Words matter. If we had described Covid as what it was from the start, plague rather than pandemic, we might have recognised the lessons of history and treated it appropriately. As it was, we comforted ourselves, and made matters worse.
They are making that mistake
Thanks for your analysis Richard and the views of others. It is good to see varied opinions and different viewpoints on your blog. I appreciate the work you put into your research.
Ron
The British Government’s handling of the Ukraine refugee crisis has been to create a hostile environment for those fleeing war by dressing up a wall of blank refusal, by the typically devious, evasive false cover of a “Visa” scheme that is supposed to look like mere sensible administration.
Unable to help themselves, this cynical cabal of Johnson-Patel and their acolytes, has now attempted to open up the refugge flow to Britain, not through high public standards and basic human compassion; but the usual blowhard ‘best-in-the world’ empty propagandising; but much worse, by creating a ‘refugee market’, offering £350 per month to those prepared to take refugees: free enterprise is now both fake, and ‘everything’. The lawyers and tax-accountants will already be dusting off the shelf-£100 companies, and forensically reviewing the tax loop-holes, to see if they can muscle-in on the action. Classical neoliberalism in action – use state funds to subsidise a phony private sector.
Britain today: Oligarchs and Charlatans have embedded their teeth in British life, business, culture and politics, and taken ot over – like nothing more than tapeworms.