Nicola Sturgeon has survived the challenge to her authority whatever the Tories now do with a vote of no-confidence. The Hamilton enquiry has exonerated her with regard to the ministerial code. The previous political vote in the Scottish parliament on her conduct will now be easy to dismiss as partisan. The threat to Sturgeon's premiership is over.
But let me suggest something else that is obviously afoot. I have not the slightest doubt that some sort of agreement between the SNP and Greens is on the cards now. The deal is that there will be a coalition of some form in the next parliament, come what may, whether the SNP gets a majority or not.
This matters, a lot. Not only is it following the precedent set by Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand - which gives enormous cover to this arrangement - but it also guarantees a pro-independence majority for the next Scottish government in the election- whether the SNP gets that majority on its own, or not. And that neuters the Westminster claim that without such a majority a second referendum is not possible.
I am not Sturgeon's biggest fan. She is too right-wing, proposed the Growth Commission and its awful suggestions on currency and other issues, and has been too timid on many issues. But my very strong suspicion is that she has outflanked all her opp0nnets today, with the help of the Greens. The cause of Scottish independence has taken a step forward this afternoon that is going to leave all others trailing behind.
And the opposition in Westminster should take note. This is how to do politics.
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But the polls are now in favour of the union
No they are not
” . . . Sturgeon outmanoeuvres everyone . . . “??
“The Hamilton enquiry has exonerated her with regard to the ministerial code.”
Yes?
More like a further breakdown in trust in politicians from the public.. she is toxic and so is the SNP. Why would you hang your hat on this crowd?
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/03/support-for-independence-boomerangs.html
I posted on here in January that reports of her demise might be greatly exaggerated. I thought we should wait for the evidence, all the evidence including hers. My comments didn’t seem to go down too well. There were those swearing by “Wings”, Robin McAlpine and other nameless sources who “really knew” what was going on and that it was a “fact” that she had lied, misled parliament and broken the ministerial code. Well Mr Hamilton, a man of impeccable credentials, doesn’t agree.
The other report, fatally compromised by selective leaks, including evidence given in confidence, constant briefings by unionist MSP’s to the media, certain in their conclusions even before all the evidence has been heard is now a partisan farrago, damaged goods.
Meanwhile, down in Westminster, a fascistic government escapes proper scrutiny by the media and opposition and worse, is celebrated and encouraged. How low politics and political commentary has sunk in the UK.
Whatever happened was not edifying, and I would extend that to both sides
She will win now
She may get Scotland independence
But Scotland will not then need a dominant SNP of the style it now has
Think ANC in South Africa
Agreed. After Independence there will be a re-alignment, I think. The SNP are a wide coalition from right to left and may fracture. The Unionists will either be totally irrelevant or they will re-think their positions vis a vis the UK parties of which they are branch offices and become independent Scottish parties of right and left, abandoning their visceral hatred of the SNP which we have seen in spades most recently, particularly from the Tories.
I hope the Greens will win more seats and perhaps some independents on the left so that the government, probably a coalition, will move decisively to the left. And, with luck, a more effective and constructive opposition holding the government to account on substance.
Thanks Richard – yes there are some who now wonder how a desireable Scotland can be built with only an efficient, strong, well led, one party state to provide government. The ANC comparator is apt, but … we have a long tradition of ‘democracy’ under our belt and we have over twenty years of running, for better and/or worse, our own parliament. One valid accusation which could be levelled at the SNP is its cautious avoidance of proposing and building proto-institutions which an operational country will need to create. The most publicly glaring of which is a currency. Another is a supposed new Investment Bank whose existence is like a secret but which ought to be right now argued over in its relationship(s) with 32 local authorities. This is the time for confidence and nation building such as Commonweal has described. This is nearer and nearer the time of asking the world to accept Scotland as a new independent nation and we should be offering that world and our voters the choice of acceptance of what we intend.
The problem is deeper, and applies on both sides of the border; indeed everywhere. Our parliamentary politics is based on ‘party’, and as David Hume understood better than anyone, ‘party’ is the source principally of factionalism. It is striking to me that it is often claimed that the problem of ‘party’ is entryism; currently it is supposed to be a problem of the left. It is the nature of all parties. All parties live, develop and survive on entryism. Margaret Thatcher was an entryist. Boris Johnson is a cynical opportunist selected to lead, for his banal amiability by ghastly Brexit entryists like Cummings and the ERG. ‘Party’ is not the solution for democracy, it is the central problem.
I do not claim to possess the answer to ‘party’, but that does not mean the problem does not exist …..
It is worth adding something significant, that I think is being overlooked. The Conservatives, having failed to bring down the First Ministers, are already retriangulating. Their new argument is that Scottish democracy, the Scottish Parliament and devolution has failed; the system is corrupt. Scottish Conservatism never, ever wanted Holyrood to exist. Their silence on this matter over the last twenty years is solely a function of stark political fear, facing extinction. Now they see an opportunity out of the Salmond affair to destroy the devolution settlement. This may seem like an act of desperation; but they are desperate.
Actually I think some elements of the Holyrood system have been robust; others are weak. The weaknesses are a product of what the Devolution settlement brought with it from the parliamentary structure in Westminster; which is notoriously antiquated, and no longer fit for modern purpose. Holyrood should have been more robust in following newer ideas and models. On the actual Hamilton and Select Committee reports, Alan Little of the BBC is the only BBC commentator, and one of the few journalists I have heard who actually understands the real issues. Sir John Curtice is another thoughtful critic. The media has been an unmitigated disaster throughout. The principal problem is that the two investigations were separate, and became conflated; a problem created ‘on the hoof’ by and within the Select Committee, for reasons I leave the reader to reflect on.
Thanks
Graham Hewitt writes of James Hamilton’s impeccable credentials to which should be added his admirable tact and integrity. At no point during his process did he make revealing statements to the media or take to Twitter to make comment. In short he was a model of tact, diplomacy and professionalism.
Compare and contrast with the behaviour of the Holyrood committee’s Labour, Tory and Lib Dem members who were available for media comment and opinion opportunities throughout. They used these opportunities to present clearly partisan views with a view to political point-scoring and damage infliction before all the evidence had been heard, and then broke the Parliamentary Code relating to work on Committees by issuing a press release revealing the Committee’s findings ahead of the Parliamentary session to discuss their report and ahead of the scheduled release of Hamilton’s report.
The behaviour throughout of the leader of the Scottish Tories at Westminster has been reprehensible: calling for a vote of no confidence in the First Minister before she had given her evidence and been cross-examined, and continuing to call for such a vote after Hamilton’s report was published. Then, last night, he repeatedly refused to answer the question whether he now accepts Hamilton’s report. This is not about finding solutions to complex issues or understanding how and why Hamilton’s conclusions were reached. Instead, unable to win the debate,
he has shown that his aim was simply crude political assassination. I’m well aware that the SNP Gov has been inept in its handling of the entire sorry tale, but, if the quality of governance is to be improved, it requires opposition politicians who are frankly more focused and mature.
There really is no evidence yet as to which member or members of the Committee leaked a conclusion. One will say it was in this or that party’s interest to leak. It might be said it was in the SNP’s interest to leak. Will there be an investigation?
Sam – if you are going to make a comment at least try to be credible
The way that Mr Wightman has been peddling like fury it is true that the Scottish Greens are already operating in cahoots to keep the NS crew in power.
I think the National Interests (the UK’s) that ScotsGov is the factotum of are the ones who have delivered her ‘victory’.
Have you had time to appraise David Davis’s putting on record what is studiedly ignored by the MSM across the land and much English speaking mass media?
I withhold reaching a judgment on Arden who I understand was fashioned in the Blairite Cauldron, at least until she does something that meets with the genuine public disapproval of the rest of the 5+1 Eyed.
The Twitter threads seem to be awash with people claiming to cancel SNP membership and some only pledging to vote for the SNP because that is where they resided their commitment under its previous Leader or Independence. That is what the NS manoeuvre has achieved – a degradation of that monolithic will of the Scots to Independence.
I won’t believe the romcom coalition in Holyrood will fare any better in delivering any real such dream, just as the rose garden bromcom sold to the gullible didn’t ten years of Austerity ago in Westminster.
As for other foul deeds upon genuine seekers of Independence and independent investigative Journalism – I will not speak of here. There are plenty of apt Macbeth quotes to choose from that would chime at events in Scotland today.
How do you feel about 3 NEC members of the SNP audit committee resigning because P Murrell (SNP CEO and husband of N Sturgeon) will not hand over the books? Do you seriously think these are the people to steer Scotland to independence?
I have already answered that
I thin k the SNP will, as a matter of fact, lead Scotland to independence
I think that more important than this issue now
But as I have also made clear, I then seriously hope the SNP splits for the good of Scotland. I would not then be in a Sturgeon camp
The current situation is far from ideal. But think the bigger picture, please.
There’s no doubt that the Scotgov’s handling of the Salmond issue was shabby. However, the enquiry set up to investigate was highjacked by the unionist opposition in such a partisan way as to render its findings totally compromised. Furthermore, it showed callous disregard for the women who were allegedly assaulted by Salmond in their scramble to smear the SNP and derail the independence movement.
The Scottish press coverage was lamentable, acting as cheerleaders for the bloodhounds. The contrast with their English brethren’s treatment of the UK Govt’s incompetence re the pandemic and Brexit couldn’t be more stark. Starmer’s insistence that Ms Sturgeon should resign for “breaching the ministerial code.” whilst giving the Tories a free pass for actually breaking the law. makes him look extremely foolish. Jackie Baillie, Labour’s attack dog in Scotland, was left floundering on Ch 4 news last night under questioning from Krishnan Gurumurthy.
There will be a substantial pro independence majority in the new Scottish Parliament after 6th May which will ensure that there will be a second referendum. There is no leader on the Unionist side who commands any respect among the Scottish electorate; they will be dreading the prospect of the referendum campaign.
The job for us who support MMT starts in earnest now. We must ensure that a notion of anything other than a new Scottish currency from day one of Indy is buried. The unionists will flood the lap dog media with scaremongering about how Scotland is ” too wee, too poor and too stupid” to be independent. We must prepare to refute those arguments positively and decisively. I’ve no doubt that the unionists will play the orange/monarchist card in an attempt to split the Indy vote and it could turn ugly. There is, unfortunately, a substantial lumpen minority who still view the world from a 17th century perspective, and who will fall for such “divide and rule” tactics..
However, the whole world is watching now and, hopefully, the sensible majority will consign the bigotry to the dustbin of history once and for all.
Yesers are are trapped, captive voters with no options but SNP or spoiled ballots. Here in rural Aberdeenshire, the Yesers I know are sick at how Ms Sturgeon appears to have acted. They will hold their noses and vote SNP on the Constituency ballot, but all bets are off for the List vote. Come Independence, I have little doubt many SNP voters would leave for more natural political allegiances. I fear Ms Sturgeon knows this as well as any and she has already shown herself more inclined to power than independence. It’s a brave pundit who says where we go from here.
The inevitable party breakdown post independence will be driven by far bigger and more positive forces than the current rather petulant attitude you are describing in rural Aberdeenshire, an area which is in any case hardly representative of Scotland as a whole, as is your own circle of acquaintances. Threatening the SNP List vote is a pointless self harming gesture in what is now an existential fight between Scotland and the British state. How much self indulgent nonsense do you think we can afford in a fight to defeat and ultimately dismantle the British state – to everybody’s advantage ?
I’m the researcher for the author of this rebuttal that the SNP are not left-wing. Huge fan of Richard Murphy but like most not living here, he has missed this kind of evidence:
https://leftfootforward.org/2021/01/allan-dorans-what-has-the-snp-done-for-us-here-are-7-ways-weve-tackled-inequality/
John Robertson
Ayr
Scotland
I spend a lot of time talking to people in Scotland
Many think the SNP) has failed to deliver on inequality
You don’t
I tend to agree with those who think it could have done more, on many issues
We will have to disagree
Richard
We could all always do more.
I’d like the SNP to be more left-wing but they have done so much more than Scottish Labour despite decades just minding the shop.
You know that full fiscal powers would be needed to do much more.
‘I spend a lot of time talking to people in Scotland. Many think the SNP) has failed to deliver on inequality.’
Might you try looking at the evidence as eg the JRF do rather than talking to a few people whose agenda might be colouring what they say to you?
John
Richard
Not sure why your initial response to me was so cold and unfriendly given my polite starter.
John
You made a claim I disagree with
I said so
I am not quite sure what was inappropriate about that
I agree with your disagreeing.
(Fancy meeting you here, John.Last time we spoke you said I was an embittered old geezer. Two out of three on that.)
To address the fundamental causes of inequalities, including health inequalities all the devolved governments need control of welfare and economic policies. More could be done in Scotland using the Council Tax. Why the SG ever accepted the present income tax policy is beyond me.
Some time ago, curious why the SG did not campaign loudly and strongly on the great injustice that Scotland could not properly address the fundamental causes of health inequalities, I wrote to Phillipa Whitford on the matter. I did not get a reply. Then I wrote to my local SNP MP and was told in reply that the political will was not there. That would be the most significant obstacle, if true. I think it is true.
Fir the record, I am not sure I am agreeing with you either
John Robertson,
The SNP is a progressive force in Scotland but they do have, in senior positions, quite a few economic dinosaurs who support the Growth Commission, who talk about “tax and spend”, keep the deficit under control etc.
The measures to mitigate some of the WM imposed austerity are welcome but they are a sticking plaster over a gaping wound. Where does Allan Dorans stand on MMT for example?
Where does he stand on some of the authoritarian measures introduced by the SNP? E.g., OBAF Act
I live in Ayr and wold look forward to discussing these matters with you when Covid restrictions allow.
In the meantime, Saor Alba.
Hi Gerry
I’d be delighted to meet when we can, over a pint?
I agree entirely that the SNP has many dinosaurs in it and come the great day I’ll be joining those pushing for their retirement.
I’m weak myself on economic matters such as MMT but open to being educated.
I can’t agree that the measures listed in the Left Foot Forward piece are no more than sticking plaster. Would you have us do nothing until we can do everything?
John
One thing that came out – regardless of the Salmond court case – was the appearance, at least, of support for women and I guess Sturgeon will maximise that advantage.
I did jury service a few years ago where I learned two things – one that a well balanced and thoughtful jury can come to a good decision and the other: that there was his story, her story and the truth.
(the second trial I took part in demonstrated why a jury can get things badly wrong and that may not be improved by giving all the decision making power to a judge – but at least a judge will have to provide his reasoning on the record)
Back to Scotland – I wish it well in getting away from Westminster – if it weren’t for the midges, I might even be tempted to move there.