Unlike many, I am not inclined to celebrate the return of power-sharing in Northern Ireland as yet.
I heard Sam Coates on Sky last night saying that the EU are still in the dark about what the supposed new agreement between the UK government and the DUP might mean, and I think there is very good reason for caution as a result. If there was no reason for checks on food and other items moving from GB to Northern Ireland, I cannot see why a provision for such checks was included in the Windsor Agreement, and I cannot see what changes might be taking place now that the EU can agree as a result. But I might be wrong, of course: maybe a route has been found.
That said, I think that Sinn Fein is now right to say, as it is reported that they have in the Guardian, that:
a united Ireland is “within touching distance” as the party prepares to claim the post of Northern Ireland first minister for the first time.
This is a seismic change that fundamentally challenges the whole basis on which Northern Ireland was created. It was always meant to be a protestant enclave; now it will have majority rule by a nationalist. To diminish the significance of that would be impossible.
Sinn Fein does, however, overstate its case. It is the most popular party in Ireland now, but the reality is that the powers that be there, represented by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, are doing all they can, including entering into their own power-sharing agreement, to keep Sinn Fein out of government. The fact that the coalition government between these two normal enemies is a miserable failure is not helping their cause, but Irish reunification may not be on the cards just yet.
That said, the day when it will happen has to now be on the horizon. I won't deny that I would be pleased to see that happen.
Next will be Scotland. Wales might take a little longer. But the days of the Union are over: the imperialism inherent within it will be its downfall. The only question is how long it will take for that to happen.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Is Irish reunification really possible?
Irish unification is possible of course but I don’t think that Ireland the island has ever been a unified independent country before. There will be a historian out there who knows.
It only became part of the UK in 1801
/this has had me checking my dimly remembered history of Irish pales and plantations… 🙂
It may only have become officially part of the UK in 1801 but the English colonisation of Ireland was in full swing from the 16th century onwards. It had started even earlier in the 12th C with an Anglo-Norman attempt to conquer the island. That’s where the expression ‘beyond the pale’ came from; enclaves controlled by the English were within the pale (‘fence).
The union of 1801 was really just formalising the de facto English control by the ‘protestant ascendancy’.
Wikipedia seems quite sound on this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Ireland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Norman_invasion_of_Ireland
Accepted
I share your doubts Richard about this so-called breakthrough. I don’t think for a moment these changes to the trading rules will be allowable within the Windsor agreement, and therefore acceptable to the EU.
Let’s face it, with a “government” Luke this whose idea of a policy is the Rwanda scheme, what do you expect?
And anything the DUP lunatics say should be discounted straight away.
As for Irish unity, I’m sure you’re right, with the one caveat being that why would the Irish, now living in a reasonably successful, forward looking country, want to take on the challenge of sorting out Ulster after it’s been wrecked like the rest of the UK, by the cancer of the English political right?
They’re not that keen
But the EU will be and will provide the funds
If they can reunify Germany, they can reunify Ireland.
Infact, as there qre so many cultural, sporting and community cross border links already in place, this should be a pot easier. There is no east german type structure to dismantle and replace, it is more integration than replace.
If that’s the case Richard, I’m happy for the decent majority in Ulster who’ll be able to escape from our hopeless politics and be in the EU to boot.
As for the ghastly hard-line unionists, serves them right. My fear is that they would either stay in N.I and resist with violence, or, god help us here in benighted Britain, leave and come here en masse. As if we don’t have enough right wing lunatics already.
Agreed.
The DUP have just put a border back in Ireland.
An unintended positive consequence of brexit.
Like all those jobs in the of city going to the continent. Shame.
My experience, based upon almost 30 years of living in Northern Ireland, is that anything that comes out of the DUP’s political mouthpieces is either a lie or an untruth.
What has the DUP junta really gained is what anyone with their heads screwed on straight here will be asking. We can all be assured that whatever it is will not be of benefit to the people they are paid to represent but to Themselves Alone.
As to reunification. That is, to my mind, a red herring. What is sorely needed here is more localised, rule of law based, democratic governance. The same goes for every county in Ireland. The eventual political form that takes may look like reunification down the line but local political empowerment for local individuals within local communities is what is needed first.
Thanks
Agreed on the DUP and the need for actual government
Thank’s Richard, excellent summary.
I think a big factor in speeding up Irish unification is Sinn Fein winning the next Irish elections and forming a government that it can dominate. Power sharing in NI is shared so the DUP are always going to put brakes on things, but a Sinn Fein FM is absolutely huge – no longer is it a “Protestant state for a Protestant people”.
The GFA mandates the British NI Secretary to hold a border poll “if polling shows a majority for unification”. I couldn’t see that ever happening under a Tory NI secretary, but certainly under a Labour one.
However, Starmer says he’ll “campaign for the union” if a border poll is called – presumably after a Labour NI secretary has called one! Notwithstanding the Downing St Declaration of 1993 stating that the UK government has “no selfish and strategic interests in NI” and the official policy of neutrality in NI affairs. I presume when Starmer says “he’ll fight for the union” it is to burnish his credentials with the older male “blue wall” voters (who many have never voted Labour – and never will) he is courting. Forget anyone else. It’s all very silly.
Starmer has very little option to side with the Unionist and factions, just to be consistent.
Though “Fighting for the Union” does lead to some quite horrible mental images of Starmer supporting the UDA, very possibly such conservative positioning comes naturally to him.
If he did not advocate unionism he’d the have to reconsider the Labour Party’s position in Scotland regarding independence.
The principle of self determination doesn’t change much across the 12miles of the North Channel.
Virtually the only substantive difference between Sarwar and Yousaf is in the attitude to Indy, which is why the SNP found it so easy to displace the SLabs, in the first place.
If a border poll is called Starmer says he’ll “campaign for the union” .
As a lawyer he should know he can’t, that Westmnster has no role to play in any campaign for Irish Reunification.
The Good Friday Agreement states quite clearly that it “is for the people on the island of Ireland alone . . . without external impediment to exercise their right of self-determination, freely and concurrently given,North and South, to bring about aunited ireland, if that is their wish”.
So only Irish people, groups, political parties etc, North and South can by rights obtained in the GFA, camapign for or against a United ireland.
Agreed
Once the English imperialists lost control of the majority of Ireland in 1921 they caved in rather than face the protestant militias in the North who were wellarmed and determined. Since then, the English ruling class found the North a pain in the backside and probably will be glad to get rid of the problem at last. Roll on a united Ireland.
I’ve got to say I’m sceptical about all this.
We are being told now that the Unionism can be ended because everyone (unionist and nationalist) is apparently fed up.
The rampant neglect of the Tory government has apparently broken unionionism and united the Irish people.
I am profoundly doubtful.
I’ve long held the view that any demise of the UK would start in N Ireland as its politics and violent recent past make it the most unstable part of the UK. Today’s proposals will take time to digest and understand, but it’s clear that the DUP would most likely support it, as any refusal would prolong the democratic hiatus in NI, diminish its position in NI politics and hasten its demise. The big unknown factor is not the DUP itself, but the numerous factions, many of them with extremist views, who saw the DUP as the “political voice” of those views. How the DUP will respond to these factions once the Deal is digested is anyone’s guess.
Whatever spin the DUP deployed to justify disrupting NI governance, the 2-year suspension of the Stormont Assembly was basically down to the DUP’s despairing attempts to retain its grip on power in the face of an electoral drift towards Sinn Fein. The resumption of shared-power governance will be eventful now that the DUP is no longer the dominant party, but the first priority has to be to get Stormont running smoothly again. It’ll take some time before constitutional matters come to the fore, but Scotland will be watching with interest, not just to gauge Westminster’s reaction to developments, but also with some concern that we might get inundated by Orange extremists if re-unification gets onto the agenda in NI (Arlene Foster has already threatened moving to Scotland if that happens). We’ve got enough unionists of our own without importing more of them!
The border between the south and north of Ireland and the rest of the UK is not simply a matter for the UK government or the DUP to decide or agree.
Having agreed to one deal with the EU in the Northern Ireland Protocol in 2019 (a deal which Boris Johnson clearly had no interest in understanding or implementing) and then renegotiated it just a year ago in the Windsor Framework, the UK government appears to be proposing to amend that bilateral arrangement.
Perhaps I missed it but I’ve not seen anything from the other party – the EU – agreeing with these new proposals. Is it this is within the latitude that the Windsor Framework affords?
The EU won’t be very interested in how any deal is presented politically. But they will be very interested in how any deal is actually implemented, particularly if there is any significant risk of goods leaking into the EU single market without proper review as they cross the external border.
I agree with all that
Bilateral action here when trilateral is needed will not help..
It does seem that, yet again, this UK government have made a unilateral decision to not just ignore the majority in Northern Ireland who wish to stay in the EU but also override an international agreement, with this Command Paper. However, I can only assume from the tacit approval given to it by Dublin yesterday that PM Sunak is moving the all of GB back into full EU trade alignment which negates the need for harsh border controls on the Irish Sea.
Yesterday was a lesson in just how effective a mass mediated campaign of spin is in disguising the actual truth.
I wonder what The People of Ireland want?
A vote by ‘The People’ of Ireland to decide their own fate. Perhaps?
That is the last thing the tory/union cabel would want.
Which is why it should happen, now.
Electronically even?
Local polls on Irish reunification taken by local papers The Irish News or The Belfast Telegraph always come out in a majority yea or nay predictably along strict sectarian lines either for or against.
Purely anecdotal and based on my surroundings, a DUP stronghold, where most status quo voters have applied for or long since gained Irish citizenship, there is now the 50 + 1 majority in favour of reunification needed to call a border poll on the ground here. That does not mean the British government have any intent of ever calling one no matter what their political rhetoric is on upholding the GFA in all its parts. This everyone here knows as the truth of it. They will just keep moving the referendum goalposts and delaying.
This is why I wrote previously about the need to concentrate on strengthening local politics here in Ireland. Irish reunification can only occur from the bottom up as long as the British government remains in charge and Unionists of all stripes continue to owe their primary political allegiance and earning capacities to Westminster, London and it’s ruling classes.
Thanks
I appreciate your commentary
“Purely anecdotal and based on my surroundings, a DUP stronghold, where most status quo voters have applied for or long since gained Irish citizenship, there is now the 50 + 1 majority in favour of reunification needed to call a border poll on the ground here.”
Really curious over what information you base this conclusion on. Getting an Irish passport to get you through a queue at Malaga airport a bit quicker is not a clear indicator being in favour of unification. The millions of GB residents that hold a new one now are testament to that.
Every credible poll in recent years has pro-UK mid to high 40’s, pro-UI low to mid 30’s and the Don’t Know’s around the 20 mark. It hasn’t really shifted despite Austerity, Brexit, Johnson and general Tory misrule. I’m just curious how you draw your conclusions above.