No one is surprised that this government made mistakes when dealing with coronavirus. Everyone would have done. Dealing with the unknown is always going to be a problem.
But equally, no reasonable person would have expected this government to make so many mistakes with regard to coronavirus.
From the moment when they ignored the compelling evidence to shut down the country; to their so obvious failure to anticipate the economic crisis coming when presenting the budget in March; to adopting herd immunity as a strategy because Cummings really did not believe that people cared about old people dying; to failing to manage track and trace so many times that it's almost impossible to track the failings; to making a complete mess of schooling, exams, university admissions and much more, the Laust of debacles just grows. And what is so apparent about these failings is not that some mistakes happened but that so many were basic political blunders that had almost nothing to do with Covid-19 at all. Instead they revealed basic political inability to deal with a crisis, when that competence is the basic test of political leadership.
I think it pretty fair to say that only the most wide-eyed of Tory believer would really think that Johnson's government has done well over the last few months. But the real questions is what happens next.
No one knows if schools can successfully reopen when the Covid 19 R rate is already likely to be over 1.
The same can be said of the supposed return to work that is claimed will happen next week.
The start of the university year poses at least as many challenges, and is also an exercise in mass migration that is bound to increase risk.
And in the middle of all this the people tasked with tackling this crisis at what was Public Health England are now wondering what their own future holds as, no doubt, most within any responsibility wait to discover if they have a job left under the new regime of Baroness Dodo Harding. It takes the most massive arrogance, or the greatest level of incompetence, and maybe a mix of both, to think that reorganising the entity tasked with managing public health when the next wave of a pandemic is near certain is a good idea that is bound to bring the best out of the staff who will actually have the task of dealing with this situation.
And on top of this, all the signs are that it is going to be government policy to move straight from ‘flash the cash' to full on austerity to balance the books, starting with a budget still scheduled for this autumn.
Then just add Brexit to the mix.
And in all that remember the two things that this government has proved itself capable of over the last few months. They are delay and U-turns.
The original reaction to Covid-19 was deferred.
The number of U-turns is now staggering. School related climb-downs and the very welcome move to defer the date when evictions from rented housing might take place are just the latest in a long line in the only identifiable trait that can be discerned within government behaviour, barring incompetence, during the course of this year.
So, let's imagine the autumn. How long will schools stay open before it is apparent that socially distanced, en-masse education with current resources in the middle of increasing R rates is not possible?
How soon after the tuition fees have been cleared will it also be before universities admit that face to face teaching of students may not be possible after all?
And as for the furlough scheme, as the redundancy notices increase as September progresses, what chance then that there will be no U-turn when the surest sign that one might happen is now the confident claim that none is on the cards?
That, though, still leaves the big one, which is Brexit. It's as if this has almost been forgotten. In time honoured fashion it is assumed that an EU deal can be done. And it is true, the EU has an amazing ability to deliver deals when it wants, and between its own members. But we're not a member. And there is no incentive to do a deal for the remaining members, at all. This, after all, is a situation not of their choosing from which they will suffer little harm if all goes wrong for a few weeks.
But that's not true for the UK. We face food shortages at the worst possible time of the year when our dependence on imports reaches at least 70% of UK food supply.
That risk of shortages will be accompanied by substantial short term food price inflation in all likelihood as panic buying commences. People will also appreciate that come what may, food prices will, because of tariffs, be more in January than they were in December. And they won't be happy. And then, just to add to matters, as the peak demand for NHS services happens there will be maximum disruption in NHS labour supplies. On top of which there are also likely to be medicine shortages. And there will not need to be many for the Daily Mail to get very angry.
Talking of which, the Mail is already very angry. And it has very clearly already switched sides on Brexit, to which it is now very obviously opposed.
What's going to happen this autumn? U-turn, after U-turn, after U-turn, right down to the point where I think it possible that an extension to the Brexit transition period might be applied for by a government by then so deep in uncontrolled panic mode that even its most treasured policy will be abandoned.
And if that is not the case? If Brexit does continue? Heaven help us, is the answer. The Mail has read the runes correctly and swapped sides at the right moment. It realises how ugly a great many issues will turn out to be this autumn, with people dying as a result of the prevarication and indecision that will be witnessed. But nothing will be as bad as imposing a No Deal Brexit in the middle of all this.
One can only hope that by then U-turns will be so normal that the government will be ready for another one. But that's as good as hope gets to be right now. And that's not good.
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More info here about that leaked Gov doc seen by the Sun (which for obvious reasons I don’t read): https://www.thenational.scot/news/18670653.snp-hit-vote-leave-leading-uk-brexit-disaster/
I was under the illusion that the two horrible risk multipliers were Brexit and Covid until news that HMG have added bad wave of flu and floods to the mix. What next? Feral rabid dogs as pets are dumped in the recession? Asteroid strike? I return to my spreadsheets with a feeling of foreboding.
The big U turn will be to quietly drop the ‘level up’ elements of policy. The cuddly gloss slapped on electoral statements to hide the ugly face of modern conservatism. It is still the party guided by the dogma of Maurice Cowling.
It will be the poor who pay the price for Covid – all of it. It will they who lose their jobs in hundreds of thousands, it will be they who lose their income and homes (40k eviction cases awaiting adjudication). It will be they who are coerced into zero hours, minimum wage positions in order to support the wealthiest who own and run the businesses that exploit them. In theory they could appeal to the courts for justice but the Legal Aid cuts mean that British justice is the sole province of the wealthy. It will be the poor who suffer the as the march towards private health care continues under Baroness Harding. It will be the aged poor who will be subjected to the eugenicist tendencies of Demonic Cummings as the blatant fiddling of statistics hides the fact from the public gaze.
But one U turn will not happen. The stubborn, bone headed, illogical stance on the Brexit trade talks.
We now have a state of affairs where a very large part of the UK electorate can no longer tell truth from fiction. This loss of connection with reality doesn’t augur well for the future of the country.
It seems to me that the only thing this Govt. is good at is U-turns
So lets look forward to the end of year E U-turn
Looking on the positive, at least U turns are happening,nothing would be worse than a government hell bent on not U turning,especially one that is getting so many things wrong.
As to Brexit, a U turn is unlikely ,for some reason Boris & Co seem fully committed to us leaving the EU at the end of the year,come hell or high water….the latter of which being entirely possible by the sounds. I put it down to an irrational fear of Nigel Farage and hardline Brexiteers, who lurk like some a bogey man in the minds of the Tory faithful. To be seen to relent in any way on the referendum has become an crazy obsession. We do not have to be out of the EU by the year end,a proper “deal” will take many years,so let’s just get on with it and extend the deadline till we have a satisfactory trade deal. It’s taken us 40 years to intergrate, we cannot sensibly leave in 2. Boris has drawn a mental line in the sand,he needs to get over his fears and do the sensible thing, most of the electorate whether pro or against Brexit would agree this is not an issue worth committing economic suicide over,only the Tories seem intent on this course of action.
I would add that there will be Tory funders who look forward to economic chaos,this is when the hedge funds and venture capitalists get to make a killing. We can’t let them do this to us.
I’m even more pessimistic than Richard. To me all the signs are that this Government (i.e. No 10) has a single Objective which is, Brexit without an agreement. Number 10 is stuffed full of ex Leave staff. Dealing with Covid is merely a crosswind to be steered through to achieve the ultimate goal. U-turns and the reputational consequences are just noise in the rigging and of little significance. Once achieved Boris will stand down and Dominic will leave with the other SPADs to collect their rewards from their financial backers and the UK population (Including the Tory Party who have been complicit in this policy coup) will be left to deal with the devastation. If you want to regard Beirut as a metaphor for what is to come, feel free!
“No one knows if schools can successfully reopen”
The Germans have re-opened schools, so have the French. So have around 20 other countries around the world. In Sweden and Taiwan they never closed them and all the data from there suggests no impact on infection rates.
So how can you say ‘no one knows’?
“We face food shortages at the worst possible time of the year”
Is this more of the ‘starvation is a real possibility’ nonsense you were peddling earlier during the coronavirus outbreak? What food shortages are you predicting now?
Just because the Germans can do it does not mean we can
And it’s not me who says starvation is a risk – the Cabinet Office does
Don’t you mean ‘U bends’?
I mean after all, Boris and Co are all so full of ‘S**t.