I have gathered from Twitter, rather than from comments here, that people want to know what they can do to draw attention to the fact that we are facing mass unemployment in the UK, with multiple further consequences to follow, as I have laid out in recent blog posts.
At one level the honest answer is that people need to hope you don't become one of the unemployed, because it's not going to be fun.
At another level, that is not, I know, the answer that people are seeking. Those asking are aware that this is a collective as well as a personal issue. A response at this collective level is always harder to offer. Eventually I have little doubt that this will involve mass protest, but for now it does not.
So there are three responses. The first is, share the message. Share my posts. Or do some short comments on Twitter or Facebook along the lines of this:
Economists think that not less than 3.5 million people will be unemployed by the end of this year. Others think it could be as high as 6 million. Either way it's going to be an absolute disaster. Please ask your MP what they're planning to do about it.
So what to write to the MP? I suggest this (and if you don't know who your MP is it's pretty easy to find out: type your postcode in here and it should tell you and provide an email address)
Dear X
It's been drawn to my attention that the Office for Budget Responsibility is suggesting that at least 3.5 million people are likely to be unemployed in the UK very soon. I know other reputable economists are forecasting unemployment for as many as 6 million people. It does not seem to matter which of these estimates is right: either is a disaster and something in this range seems certain. I am then writing to ask what you intend to do about this.
I stress that question is personal: I am aware, for example, of what the government has proposed and so do not need it repeated to me. I am seeking your opinion in what is happening locally in this letter so that I can understand what you are going to do about this crisis.
Might you answer the following questions for me?
1) How many people do you think will be unemployed in XXXX (constituency name) if even the lower of these two estimates proves to be correct?
2) Do you have any suggestion to make as to the likely age range, gender or skill set of those who are likely to lose their jobs in this constituency so that the consequences can be planned?
3) Do you know which industries or sectors will be hit hardest by the downturn and so make most people redundant in (constituency name)?
4) How many new jobs will the government be supporting in your constituency? Can you specify which scheme will be supporting those jobs, for how long they will last, who will be eligible to apply for them and which employers or organisations have agreed to create these job opportunities?
5) Can you suggest what job opportunities there might be for those who will not qualify for a government supported post?
6) How many vacancies do you think there might be per person seeking to find work in your constituency over the next year?
7) Might you advise what the average universal credit claim is per week within our constituency?
8) Could you live on that universal credit payment if you were to lose your job and meet all your existing financial commitments?
9) If a constituent can not achieve that goal because, for example, their mortgage could not be paid, what would you advise that they do? What would you also advise if this unemployment is long term, as the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts suggests it might be for many people?
10) Can you tell me how many of those who might become unemployed in (constituency name) you think might lose their homes due to inability to pay their rent or meet their mortgage commitment?
11) Can you tell me where you think those people might be rehoused if this happens, which given current Universal Credit rules seems likely in a great many cases?
12) Can you tell me what you think the impact of even the lower of these estimated unemoployment figures might be on child poverty in XXXX (constituency name) will be? Please specify this in terms of the number of children who will now suffer poverty and please advise how their needs will be met?
13) Do you think our local authority has all the resources it now needs to meet the needs of those who will now become unemployed in our area? Have you checked with them? Might you supply a copy of their confirmation that they can cope?
14) Likewise, do you think our local NHS services, including GPS and mental health services, have all the resources they now need to meet the needs of those who will now become unemployed in our area? Have you checked with them? Might you supply a copy of their confirmations that they can cope?
15) Similarly, do you think all our local schools have all the resources they now need to meet the needs of those children of those who will now become unemployed in our area? Their needs are very particular to deal with the disruption that this will create in their lives. Have you checked with them? Might you supply a copy of their confirmations that they can cope?
16) Can you please detail all the meetings and actions you have taken to address these issues locally.
17) Finally, might I ask what policy proposals you (not your party, but you individually) are proposing to deal with all the issues noted in this letter? Our community is going to need leadership to get through this crisis. What are you going to do to provide this?
I look forward to your reply.
I am sending a copy of this letter to my local councillors and to the leader of our local authority so that they too might comment.
Best regards
Name
Address
Phone
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I will write to my MP but I can predict with almost 100% certainty that, as a Tory MP, I will get a ‘standard’ reply following the party line as dictated by his boss, Mr Cummings. All other e-mails/letters etc. on other subjects have resulted in a similar response.
But, I will try.
Craig
I am sending the letter – but am as optimistic as you…
‘I will write to my MP but I can predict with almost 100% certainty that, as a Tory MP, I will get a ‘standard’ reply following the party line as dictated by his boss, Mr Cummings. All other e-mails/letters etc. on other subjects have resulted in a similar response.’
Ditto!
But I will try too. One has to be engaged even if one knows in advance what the outcome is likely to be.
When I write, I will probably add something about the economic effect of Brexit – after all we have no idea what our foreign trade arrangements will be from the 1st of January
If we can, it is better to write our own letters than replicating a standard one. But if we don’t have the time, then the use of the above letter is helpful.
In the case of Dominic Cummings going to Durham etc. MPs noted that letters received from constituents were original rather than having a common source. MPs understood that what they were hearing was a much more heartfelt and credible sense of concern and distress. It was less easy for them to brush off.
On Radio 4 this morning a young (20s) Uighur female, told the story of her growing up in a Uigher village in China and how it changed over the years. She is now in Turkey but her parents and siblings have all been locked up for periods of around 15 years each. Their crime? to have some kind of Muslim thought or discussion – very ordinary people in a small village.
It brought home to us the situation much more vividly than almost all of the reports on the news.
If we use personal examples of relatives, friends, ourselves, staring into the chasm of being unable to find any sort of useful work it is likely to have a better effect on the MP concerned.
Let us do our best.
Agreed
Chop, change and start afresh by all means
Thanks for this. Copied and sent to my MP and shared with friends
I can see the rationale for sending this letter to your MP if they are a Tory. Is there any point sending to my local Labour MP?
Why not?
It’s not clear what they think
Richard: the reply from my local, Tory, MP:
”Thank you for contacting me regarding the future of UK unemployment in the aftermath of the
COVID pandemic.
The Coronavirus outbreak is the biggest public health emergency for a generation and, like you, I
am deeply concerned about the economic impact it is having on people in our constituency. I have
an enormous amount of sympathy for anyone who finds themselves without work and I know that
it is going to be very difficult for a lot of people as a result of the crisis.
I am proud that the Government has acted on an unprecedented scale to provide £160 billion of
support for individuals and businesses at this extremely difficult time. Businesses have been
supported with tax cuts, grants, and loans.
Public services have received vital extra funding and people have been supported through the
Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme. Crucially, the
safety net of the welfare system has been strengthened to support the most vulnerable. This
economic response has been one of the most generous and comprehensive globally, and I am
encouraged that this support has benefitted the poorest working households the most. Crucially,
this approach has protected many jobs throughout the lockdown.
Now it is time to go further to help begin our economic recovery and I welcome the Chancellor’s
announcements to support, create and protect jobs. I am especially concerned about the impact of
the crisis on young people and am worried that they will be hardest hit. The new Kickstart scheme
will support young people into work and will see the Government directly pay employers who
create good quality jobs for any young person aged 16-24 at risk of long-term unemployment. The
scheme will cover the cost of their salary, as well as an administration cost, and will sit alongside
support for traineeships, apprenticeships and Sector-Based Work Academies to support young
people into employment. I am encouraged that specific support is being targeted at young people
and I will follow this closely.
I am also pleased that the Department of Work and Pensions is doubling the number of Work
Coaches in Job Centres to 27,000 by March 2021, as well as creating a new, online one-to-one Job
Finding Support offer. This will provide invaluable support for those looking for work.
These measures form just part of a comprehensive plan for jobs which provides up to £30 billion of
support. I completely recognise the severity of the situation our economy finds itself in but I am
confident these measures will help to prepare for the challenge ahead and I hope to see that,
despite the adversity the Coronavirus crisis has presented, we are able to bounce back stronger
than before.
Regarding the many questions you pose, you are asking about events yet to take place. I do not
want to engage in crystal ball gazing about what the economic outlook will be in coming months.
My sole focus is working with colleagues and the Government to turbocharge our economy as we
emerge from lockdown and not only preserve existing jobs but create new ones also.”
Boilerplate repetition of government policy then and no hint of local content
Disappointing