I sincerely hope that Opposition and other MPs take control of the House of Commons agenda today.
I hope they do pass legislation to prevent a No Deal Brexit and to provide time to negotiate an alternative.
I hope some Tories do have the courage to vote against their party.
I wish those Labour MPs who vote with the government - and some will - would have the courage to quit their party.
And I hope Boris Johnson does follow through with an election, because he is leading a government that is collapsing, come what may.
What will happen as a result? Who knows? I do not.
But I am quite sure he would rather not have an election now.
On 7 November he could ask for endorsement for what he'd done. And voting Brexit Party would make no sense as we'd already be out. But on 14 October they're in play precisely because the issues are unresolved.
On the other hand, on 7 November there will be clear signs of Brexit chaos. Because there will be some. No one can pretend otherwise. So that would be a bad date for that reason.
But if he could have hung on until next spring, as I think he'd prefer, then the chaos would have reduced (let's be clear, that's inevitable: there are always learning curves and we'll be through some of it) and the Brexit Party would have been neutered.
But 14 October? And only an 11 point lead, which 2017 suggests to be pretty small (not that history need repeat itself, but his honeymoon will be over by 14 October)? I'm not sure this is really his desire. I do think that this does imply a government out of control. And that this does imply that there is a realisation that contempt for conventions is ultimately not possible. This is a sign of weakness by the Cummings standard in that case. And that I welcome.
And will he win? I reiterate that I do not know. But I am fairly sure of some outcomes.
The first is that the SNP will take most of Scotland again, with only one or two Tories left there, and then on the Borders. The LibDems will be the second Scottish Party and Labour will get just one seat north of the border.
Norther Ireland will see the highest ever vote for non-Unionist Parties.
And in England and Wales? My suspicion is the LibDems are the Remainer's choice in many Tory seats. In my own area what looked like a rock solid Tory seat looks like a marginal after the recent council elections.
Add this LibDem revival in England and SNP trend in Scotland together and in principle I'd say the Tories start the campaign many seats down, whatever the polls imply.
So, it will be down to a Labour / Tory fight for pro-Brexit seats, most especially but not entirely in the North. Labour's got to have a phenomenally good campaign. They start on a back foot with the Tories willing to run deficits and Labour apparently not. And Corbyn's lost his Glastonbury appeal. That means that there is no chance of a Labour win in my opinion, or anything remotely like it. So the question is whether it can stop Johnson forming the next administration.
Expect the anti-SNP line in England to be very strong in that case. That worked for the Tories when it was suggested voting Labour would deliver Alex Salmond. I think it will be tried again. The claim will be ‘vote Labour, lose Scotland', even if it's the Tories who will be dong just that.
There's a long campaign to come.
My hope? A coalition on the broad left. It's the best that can be hoped for. That, and nothing for the Brexit Party, but with them having a big enough share to really harm Johnson.
And after that? A coalition agreement committing to electoral reform, the Green New Deal and Europe.
I can live in hope.
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This really is the $64,000 question – the answer to which could change the course of the nation’s history. You’ve covered most of the main issues. So, for what it’s worth, I’ll just throw in my meagre 2 cents’ worth.
While hope springs eternal, it’s difficult to see a left alliance unseating the Tories. Johnson appears to be a lot more canny than Corbyn. Plus he has master strategist & eminence grise Dominic Cummings** (presumably also advice from Lynton Crosby, Steve Bannon & Trump even), the MSM and a shed-load of money behind him (surely time to ban private financing of political parties?). While ‘The People v Parliament’ trope & ‘Brexit’ will resonate in many constituencies, he’s shifting the agenda to a domestic one backed by fiscal policies, as you state above. Smart strategic move.
The Tories learned a lot from New Labour and Alistair Campbell’s Millbank operation. And they’ve also learned from Momentum’s use of Social Media.
I listened to Corbyn speaking in Salford yesterday and he just doesn’t ‘do it’ (at least not for me). He looked tired and bereft of chutzpah, while Boris exudes energy and his own style of charisma.
However, our FPTP system can throw up unexpected results. In the end it’s not the number but where the votes fall.
(** I thought this blog offered an interesting insight into Cummings’ possible thinking – https://unherd.com/2019/08/dominic-cummings-is-no-chicken).
I would add to your ban on private financing, a ban on political ads on Facebook.
Can see there being some kind of Cambridge Analytica 2.0 waiting patiently behind the scenes for Cummings to put to work.
Damian Collins outlines urgent pre-election legislation as follows;
https://cherwell.org/2019/09/02/damian-collins-emergency-legislation-needed-for-a-snap-general-election/
I would disagree that Boris exhudes energy and charisma. He looks like he has had enough already – it is hard work being PM and I can’t see him looking forward to 6 weeks of campaigning.
The key for Labour is to scrap their fiscal credibility rule. They simply cannot afford to be outmaneuvered by the Tories on this.
“I am quite sure he [Johnson] would rather not have an election now.”
I would not assume Boris Johnson means it simply because he said it. I tend to assume that Johnson is sent out to “make smoke”, and then I reflect on what Cummings may be doing. Most Conservatives are tribally following Party interest, even over country (or have confused the two; an endemic Conservative failure); Cummings, I surmise has no interest in Party or Parliament: he is intent only on delivering a no-deal Brexit, ‘period’.
I therefore do not subscribe to the view that an election is simply to be desired. Whatever you think of Tony Blair, I suspect everyone should pause and reflect on his description of an election as an ‘elephant trap’.
When the lectern appears on the road in Downing Street, if there is no obvious cause for national celebration; it is almost always the public signal that something is going badly wrong in government. Cummings has a problem, and his standard response is to ‘up’ the stakes. Do not look where he wants you to look.
In order to prevent no-deal I would tend to see more value in seizing control of the order paper in the House of Commons, passing legislation to postpone Brexit (the fear both may have come to pass I think has rattled Downing Street), and then defeating the Government when Johnson offers a general election: because he needs a two-thirds majority, and can’t command it. I would rather conecntrate minds on what Johnson-Cummings do then, and tease it out from there? Do not simply follow the trail Cummings is setting. If he is setting it, this is what he wants and you may be assured he has a clear goal, whether you yet see it or not.
I am eyes wide open, I assure you
Forgive me Richard, I was not ‘singling you out’; perhaps I could better have expressed the context of the thought – I was directing my words to all readers.
Cummings’ greatest strength is that he knows what he is trying to achieve; and goes for it by the most direct, ruthless route accessible. Just as he seeks to predict the opposition moves, it is possible to have at least some sense of his techniques. My problem is that I have much less sense of the organisational focus of the anti-no deal parliamentarians. The problem here is, I think that they have managed to figure out an energised strategy only in direct response to the relentless ruthlessness of Cummings. I am not sure how far ahead they have plotted the moves beyond their first objective; or can hold the coalition together when events unfold fast. Thus, although Labour (and all oppostion parties) may not rise to the crude Boris Johnson election bait (assuming they already possess the order paper and can pass the Brexit delay legislation). I am not clear where they think they go from there, or as a coaltion of interests can seize the initiative and deliver the objective of removing a no-deal Brexit (or even whether all of them can resist an election).
I would remind everyone that an election is the ground Cummings will choose to fight; and he has a far, far better record of success in that field than anyone else on either side. Cummings is a also a risk-taker, a quite different species to conventional politicians (even those blowhards who wish the reputation of risk-takers without the least understanding of what this means).
I agree with your logic
But will he win through?
Seriously….is Johnson that courageous?
So far Cummings is writing the script. It is the only one Johnson possesses; he has never been known for ‘ideas’, strategy or even tactics. He brought Cummings in. Forgive me repeating this: “Johnson’s Government will quite likely implode thereafter; but from Cummings perspective; so what, if no-deal Brexit is done?”
Boris seems to be continuing as PM in the same vein as Foreign Secretary.
The 14th October is a Jewish Holy day. I’m fairly sure this would exclude Jews from voting if a GE were held on that date.
Wow…..
I should add that Cummings is not expected to be in Downing Street the day after 31st October. He intends to go immediately in November (see the Times, 10th August; ‘Purge of Civil Servants’); he only accepted Johnson’s offer in order to achieve Brexit, preferably with no-deal, certainly by 31st October. Cummings focus is Brexit; nothing else.
Johnson’s Government will quite likely implode thereafter; but from Cummings perspective; so what, if no-deal Brexit is done?
Agreed
And his daddy will keep him, no doubt
Boris of one hundred days?
🙂
Hmmm…………………
The Johnson I saw outside No. 10 last night on the news looked uncomfortable to me – behind the blond mop he looked a little hunted, uncertain even – like a nervous messenger boy delivering the bill.
I think he’s shitting his pants. And he ought to be.
But will Parliament hold? Well – let us see.
And if not, when enough people have been hurt, enough chaos has been rendered maybe – just maybe – we will live to see our days and our country renewed.
Johnson may be realising that despite being pm he is now a prisoner of Cummings.
I know the queen signed off the prorogue bill but did she give him as much as he wanted I wonder? Surely he wanted to prevent what is going on now.
And Hammond seems to be on fire now. The quiet man indeed
So let us take stock.
The new PM at only his second appearance has been shown not to have the confidence of the House at the FIRST time of testing it.
Of course that means he probably didn’t have it at his first appearance and so not when he went to see the Queen to claim the premiership or when he sent that crazy cat Mogg to rubber stamp a prorogation. He didn’t, doesn’t and She should never have accepted his assurance that he had such a confidence. Perhaps that decision will now weigh heavy on the crown.
What next? It seems that having disenfranchised a large proportion of his party the House has suddenly been reshaped WITHOUT a election.
So while we are enthused and believe that all is well … there is a twist that could be played out yet, that a wild beast will be unleashed – a gnu. In effect a parliamentary coup again at the hand of the Queens acceptance.
The only winning move is to make it illegal to have a hard brexit. Followed by an election which the country can decide on the government that will present new options. That is the only way the EU could consider changing the time limit on A50 any further.
I’m not taking anything for granted so am going for a final booze cruise for my xmas stock.