The far-right has been held at bay in France.
Having been given due warning of an impending disaster, centre and left-wing parties cooperated to ensure that the far right did not win the majority of seats in the French Parliament. Instead, the far right came third, with the centre grouping around the ideas of President Macron coming second and the left-wing grouping around Greens, socialists, communists, and others forming the largest group in the Parliament.
The final result is not in as I write. What is clear is that none of these groups will have the ability to form a majority government in France, and even the left-wing group, as the largest in Parliament, will be around one hundred seats short of that target.
I am not sufficiently expert in French politics to predict how these groups might work together now. That the centre and left need to do so is, however, obvious if they are to fulfil their combined ambition of holding the right wing at bay. Whether that is possible is another matter altogether. Macron's group is neoliberal to its core. The left-wing groups are inherently deeply opposed to precisely what that centre group wishes to promote. The consequence will be a profoundly uncomfortable relationship.
It has been suggested that Macron might appoint a technocratic Prime Minister to former government that can last for at least a year until further elections can be held to resolve this situation. There is, however, already doubt about whether such a government could survive.
At the heart of all this there would seem to be a rejection by the French of the entire political system that has delivered to them successive Macron presidencies.
I doubt if everyone voting far right in France is as racist or out of touch with reality as the party to whom they have lent their support. Instead, they are fed up with a system that has failed them, particularly in rural France.
I strongly suspect that many of those who have voted for the centrists have done so to preserve a status quo that has served them well. They are declining in number.
Those who have voted for the left will not all be driven by shared conviction. Some, too, will want to change a failing system, but this time, they will approach the issue from the perspective of the city dweller (to possibly overly simplify things).
Whichever way it is looked at, the French now share the massive disquiet that the British do in their electoral system and democracy. This chart comes from an article by Martin Wolf in the FT, published yesterday:
Sentiment in the UK is, of course, tainted by the corruption and failure of the Tories. The same might also be said of the SNP.
At the same time, it is more deep-seated than that. Labour has not, in any way, won hearts and minds for its policies, as is going to become apparent very soon. The rise of Reform makes that clear. The fact that the Greens could win in both rural and city seats is also indicative of this trend.
Although Labour will be in as much denial of the fact as Macron and his associates will be in France, the entire political infrastructure of countries like France in the UK is now at risk of collapse, with the obviously rotten status quo being rejected, but with the required new direction of travel being unclear to many in the electorate.
The reason is probably obvious to everyone but those in these centre parties, which have existed to serve the interests of a powerful elite.
After decades of observing actual behaviour, nobody believes that growth is going to deliver outcomes favourable to everyone in the UK, and most probably in France.
Almost everyone believes there is a fundamental failure in the societies of these countries. Wealth and power are too concentrated amongst a few. With this wealth and power being aggregated in the largest cities, almost everyone outside them feels left behind, because they are.
In addition, what is obvious is that these societies are being split between those who have, and those who have not, with the number who have not rising inexorably, whilst those who have would appear to be ever better off. Inequality is growing, in other words, and none of the parties of the centre are willing to do anything about it, as Labour has already made very clear in comments made by Wes Streeting yesterday.
The demand in France is not for compromise. I am not sure it is in the UK either. And in neither case is there a desire for the status quo. The demand is for radical change. What is clear in that case is that the centre cannot hold because it has failed. The question is, what comes next?
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
I agree electors in France and the UK largely feel divorced from what the main parties offer. A danger is that people see voters for the RN in France and Reform in the UK as beyond the pale in terms of their views when as you suggest, many simply feel left out. Now we have Labour acting as if they have a mandate when with only 34% of the vote they do not. But then I recall arguing with people in 1983 that the Conservatives did not have a mandate though at 42.4% that was rather higher than Labour have now!
What comes next? Eventually global heating will focus the minds of the majority of human beings who are poor at joined-up thinking. It will dawn on them that politicians who effectively argue the following are the pits:-
“We’re going to beat the government into being more efficient with austerity then the rich can also pay less taxes! Of course they’ll then give the party more donations for doing their will, an efficient Magic Money Tree circle!”
The ‘left’ – which should contain a spectrum from old Labour through the Greens to many LibDems – will have to form a Democratic Socialist Alliance, or some similar. Ideologues on the Left (and there are palpably very few these days, at least vote attractors) will have to hold their noses and join or be further marginalised. The Greens will be under attack from LINO (accusing them of harbouring expelled antisemites?, single issue extremists as per Prevent listing?)) and it is hoped they won’t trim to the centre right. There will not be one party of the Left, certainly not if Starmerification is to be avoided. I am not optimistic.
LINO is not on the left
Let’s stop pretending it is
It is a centre-right party
I have no illusions as to what LINO is. I have experienced its manifestation in our constituency: manipulation of admin to close off opposition, multiple chair holding at all levels to close off movement of ideas, inventive chairing to dissuade activists, closeness to influencers like Smeeth, closeness to the Woodcock and Mann types, besties with Gurinder Singh Josan, labelling and isolating anyone passionate and left-wing.
Revolution?
Revolution merely tends to replace one elite with another, often even more authoritarian.
France’s situation is reminiscent of the French Revolution. The elite, deaf and blind to the people until, perhaps, it will be too late.
As “democracy” is doing at the moment.
Uneven slow burn global collapse of societal and economic structures. Created by a combination of runaway fossil fuel industrial corporate ecocide and the storm wake of decades of uneven globalising neo liberal growth. Additionally, just as economically viable fossil fuel exploitation is in its Endgame the need for power is increasing exponentially with the uncontrolled expansion of AI resulting in a rise in land and resources grabbing conflicts.
Also, there is already a rolling systemic breakdown in the ability of global health systems to effectively triage the rising tide of illness and disability caused by widespread poverty. Further to this Big Pharma may be seeing a profiteering opportunity in the treatment and use of vaccines for the many disabling sequelae of Covid, for instance, but such a purely capitalist response is bound to lead to their own destruction. Who will be left to teach medicine to a new generation when all of the overworked frontline healthcare workers are disabled or dead ? Something’s gotta give and soon.
The 5th Republic is on its last legs
There are plenty of people unhappy in their towns and cities – the ghettoes. It’s just that the farmers are able to have more effective protests. They have the tractors full of shit they can cover the government offices in – which are in towns.
Quite simply the French have rejected what we British have embraced. Global Neoliberalism and dumbing down. What we swallowed hook line and sinker with Maggies handbag fantasy politics – that the State Money is the same as the Household Money – and taxes pay for public spending.
Sarkozy failed, Macron has too. He has failed to deliver for his Banker Masters – there is no mass privatisation of public services and relieves going on. There is no ever extending retirement age; public services and housing are still having to be provided. Such benefits of being a French citizen are rooted in the French psyche.
I think it deliberately mis-identified as just parochialism, which is then conflated into ‘populism’ – and then the bogeyman ‘rightist’ movement and voila! Fascism . French are as anti-fascist and anti-Nazi, as most normal people, but you tell them they can’t be afforded their basic needs and services because of ‘foreigners’ and ‘EU’ – they will obviously respond to such siren voices.
What would we do? What did we do?
We have a continuing ever more noxious neofascist governments in the U.K. for the 5th decade in the row. Regardless of the sheepskins they came dressed in! With a population Pavlovianly trained to have buttons that petty dictators like Farage can easily push, primed by the mainstream and social media!
Manny the Macaroon has gone stale and needed to be replaced as Europe is readied for the next ultimate sacrifice, once again.
Melenchon might be the one that could save that 5th Republic – their supposed JC equivalent socialist democrat, he has shown pro-Palestine support.
However, I do not like the look of his sinister possible partners (NPF includes a certain Raphaël Glucksmann). Just more satraps of US globalist neocon hawks supporting and perpetuating global conflicts and perpetuating unipolar imperialism – France as one of the oldest extant colonialists, is daily losing more of its remaining exploitable conquests. Which means more war to retain and gain such illegally owned resources.
I’ll leave it at that – I recommend Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) for his considerable commentary on such geopolitical matters.
Here is George Monbiot’s take on Starmer’s victory, with suggestions of what comes next
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3zWYMCwy8I
Thanks
He is good
The various parties worked well and quickly to halt the RN in france, the big question for now is can Mèlenchon and Macron put aside their many differences and egos and accept the political landscape in France has changed, probably for a long time. The left offered a small manifesto which was similar to the RN, minus the racism, it was welcomed by the public and is something that could be built upon.
Neoliberalism is failing everyone, everywhere, we need, they need, to rekindle the mixed economy system offering a fairer society France need to look to its famous words Lègalitè Fraternity Liberty and remember what they mean.
Here’s the rich folks’ austerity recipe numptie Labour Party supporters have voted for:-
“Reeves has said the government will borrow only to invest within its fiscal rules, and that overall public debt should fall year-on-year as a share of gross domestic product by the fifth year of official forecasts.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/07/unite-sharon-graham-rachel-reeves-fiscal-rules-growth-borrow-invest
A tiotal disaster in the making
The Manifesto commits to shredding £2.5 billion in the current 5-year term: “We have not allocated all additional revenue to potential spending. This is a prudent approach in line with our commitment to economic stability.”
I know that
But what does ‘shredding’ mean?
(Replying to myself because I can’t see an option for Richard’s question.)
I used “shredding money” as the obverse of the usual “printing money” phrase. Sorry for the confusion.
Thanks
She was always going to double down at this stage as she can continue to blame the Tories for her own lack of substantive actions for years.
And her artificial rules are all about camouflaging that lack of action.
In any case she can not justify shape shifting so soon.
I doubt if she ever will.
She has not amended her position one iota since she set out her growth mantra in 2013 – identical to her views now.
This is a person with a very fixed and conventional view, and quite probably a one trick pony. I suspect her BoE experience has welded her into neoliberal orthodoxy.
I can’t imagine the immense dissonance any new crisis that requires Keynesian scale interventions might bring her, as she evidently does not regard the climate crisis as sufficient to require immediate action.
In France (& the Uk) there is a profound lack of (political) imagination. In France (like the UK), the ability for local gov to act have been eviscerated (budget cuts). This makes it difficult/impossible to do even trivial things – let alone – e.g. organise local communities for energy, transport even something daft like… jam making (as I write there are tonnes of friut rotting on trees in the valley of the Aveyron).
Or let’s try this – Massif Central – Rockwool factory – MWhs of free heat each day/every day – there could be massive greenhouses all fed from free heat – & a railway line direct to Paris – fruit/veg year round – employment right in the middle of rural France. Lots more examples. The problem is the structure of politics – “the professional politico” knows lots about politics – very little about lived realities of citizens and the possibilities little & large. There are any number of actions that could be taken – but gov is not interested.
Much to agree with
It seems pretty clear to me that the vast majority of people on this planet, whether they be British, French, or a lost tribe in the Amazon, all want pretty much the same thing – clean water, food, shelter, good health, a good education for their children, to be safe and secure and to just get on with their lives with the minimum of hassle. All of this would be possible for all if it were not for the greed, selfishness and inhumanity of a relatively small minority. What drives the mindset of this minority has always been an anathema to me
Much to agree with
In a nutshell, Beveridge and Keynes.
I want your videos to keep on having the text beneath so I can read them in bed while my wife is asleep without disturbing her.
As to content, I leave that to you because you know more than I do and are in closer touch with what happens in the real world of economics and politics. I don’t presume to suggest subjects upon which you should opine.
Keep them short(ish). Writing essays is for a different space. Goodness knows which space, but not this one. 🙂
Thanks Andy