This is my latest video on YouTube. In it, I argue that Labour will only have months to keep the electorate happy after the general election, and if they don't, the backlash could be severe and long-lasting.
The audio version is:
The transcript is:
How long will Labour's honeymoon with the UK electorate last?
It's very clear from opinion polls that right now, Keir Starmer and his cohort are running high in people's opinion. But will that last once they get into office?
I've been talking to quite a wide variety of people, and to be candid, no one who has much experience of the UK political scene thinks that Keir Starmer is going to be everyone's favourite by early 2025.
Why's that? Well, Rachel Reeves is going to deliver a budget in September 2024, we're pretty sure, a couple of months after she gets into office, and it's going to be deeply uninspiring.
Is she going to be offering more money for the NHS? Probably not.
Is she going to offer the funds to solve the junior doctor's pay dispute, which they've reasonably been pursuing because their pay has been devalued over such a long period of time? No, she's probably not.
Is she going to give money to resolve the problems in education? No, she's probably not.
I could keep going.
The point is that everyone's going to suddenly realise that because Rachel Reeves is saying she will raise no new money, and she has to follow the same fiscal rule that Jeremy Hunt did, she's going to deliver a programme which is basically identical to everything that the Tories have done.
And I call that austerity.
Other people call that austerity.
And I think you'll call that austerity.
And that's absolutely the last thing that this country needs.
And yet that's what Labour's going to do.
So what happens when, I think by next January - give it that long -people are suddenly looking at Labour and saying, “this party is going to make no difference to my life, despite the fact we've just given them a whacking great majority, or even a moderate majority”. They're going to be deeply, deeply disenchanted with what Keir Starmer is doing.
And the backlash will be significant, at two levels. One of those levels will be amongst the general public. That's you, and that's me. We're going to say, this isn't what we signed up for, even if we did vote for Labour. And that's going to mean that other political parties are going to be coming back into the scene big time.
And we don't know who that will be, because frankly, most of those other political parties, most especially the Tories, are still going to be in a big, mighty mess as a consequence of what's going to happen in the general election.
The other thing that's going to happen is that a very large number of Labour back bench MPs are going to be very annoyed with their party leadership.
Remember that a great many MPs who are going to be elected for Labour this time will never make it to ministerial office. Around a hundred and twenty MPs on average are ministers at cabinet level or below cabinet level or as parliamentary private secretaries or whatever else at any point of time.
Suppose Labour gets 450 MPs. That's going to leave them well over 300 sitting around on the back benches, who will wonder whether they'll ever get ministerial office and ever have a chance to affect political change. And because so many of them will be quite sure that's never going to happen, they're going to begin to cause trouble.
That happened, of course, with the Tories last time. We've seen the problem with Conservative leaders managing their backbenches over recent years. Well, we're going to see that happening with Labour as well. So, at two levels, Labour is going to be in deep political trouble fairly soon into the life of this new Parliament.
Unless, and that's a very big unless, some change happens. What's that change going to be? Keir Starmer's going to have to realise that if he's going to make a second term in office, he cannot afford a collapse in his popularity very early in this term in office, or his days will literally be numbered from 2025 onwards.
He'll be a lame duck from the start.
The only change he can make is to say to Rachel Reeves, “Sorry, you're not a good Chancellor. You've got to go. We need somebody who understands that Labour has to deliver for the people of this country, or it is nothing at all.”
That's what Labour has to do, or its honeymoon is going to be incredibly short.
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I met Rachel Reeves at an event when I lived in Leeds West around 2015. My instant instinctive reaction was that she was utterly Tory. Nothing since has altered my initial opinion. Let’s see what the public make of her and Blue Labour over the coming 18 months or so.
Agree with much. But not the conclusion. Starmer is an owned man. In matters economic he does what he is told. Can he fire Reeves – sure. Then it’s Reeves II (of which there is no shortage). The other problem is the overall illiteracy in matters economic of most (all?) politicos. LINO backbenchers may well be unhappy, do they know enough to do anything about it? to articulate an alternative? Nothing I have heard from them suggests so.
Agree with the timing Jan 2025 – Starmer with a popularity rating of Sunak.
Thank you and well said, Richard.
Further to big majorities and disenchanted MPs, my former manager was a Treasury junior minister under Major. She heads one of my professional bodies this year. My former manager says big majorities, regardless of the political weather, are a problem as MPs who will never become minister get bored, into scrapes, make trouble and enjoy making trouble.
You say, “Keir Starmer and his cohort are running high in people’s opinion”. I really don’t think so.
Yes, people may vote labour (and who can blame anyone if the alternative is Tory). Some may simply not vote. But I think a great many people do not like Labour. It’s just that they are, marginally, better than the alternative.
We agree
Rachel Reeves has said that any increase in public spending is dependent on”econcomic growth”. Growth forecasts are 0.4% for 20024 and 1% for 2025, so if she sticks to her absurd “fiscal rules” she will only have chicken feed for the NHS and meagre crumbs if any for anything else (if they are lucky, some hope). What a shambles and a public putting up with this tragic nonsense!
They will plan to hit the ground running.
The summer break may be postponed.
Lots of pie in the sky announcements.
The first hundred days and the annual party meeting to showboat the new NuLabour… Brittannia Unleashed.
Honeymoon comes to a premature end anyway with the escalation of War – for which plenty of money will instantly be found..
All in on Ukraine and Gaza genocide, other misadventures further afield.
Body bags and worse will wake people up
Even if England wins Euros
(unlikely but hey, there is always a statistical hope !)
Mass Protests and General Strikes are the only hope.
The summer recess will happen
So will the party conferences
Or so Labour candidates tell me
Who has heard of these Private Equity Firms – KKR , Apollo , Silverlake and Blackstone amongst others ? they have one thing in common , they are American . These American Businesses along with others like Google , Microsoft etc have taken over large swathes of the British Economy . This is the Elephant in the room that so far no Political Party has stood up to , be it Labour or the Conservatives . Labour will be handed the next baton to look after .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uK7DINiVuPA&t=122s
I urge everyone to watch this , it is shocking , unbelievable and at the same time fascinating . Angus Hanton presents so many facts on this and believes this is just the beginning….. The 51st State of America …
But, we are still a state. We can regulate their activities here, if we wish.
51st state of America ?
I don’t think so.
Israel has occupied that position for quite a while.
Please watch it Richard , it is fascinating but shocking . i am not articulate enough to present the conversation one way or the other but the Gentleman being interviewed is. It has been going on steadily for the last 15 years i think he said and he was of the same opinion as you have just written .
American Businesses have taken over great swathes of the British Economy to the point of , his views not mine that Microsoft ‘s Wealth is greater than the whole of the Footsie’s top 100 companies combined . That is very powerful and means America has great an influence over what happens in the UK .
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jun/10/apple-ai-product-launch
This is another important area that American has stolen a march on the UK . Again according to Angus Hanton , we have little to no capability in this area . Any small company in the UK in this field would likely be quickly swallowed up.