I won't be the first, or last, to say this, but I wake this morning with a sense of dull dread.
The idea that we are to have a general election campaign that will inevitably lead to the election of a Labour government that is dedicated to delivering austerity and failed government services to the people of this country is not something to lift the spirits.
Of course we need to be rid of the Tories. After fourteen years they are beyond hope in their hopelessness. Bereft of talent and ideas, associated with corruption, racism, gerrymandering, culture wars, indifference to the rule of law and callousness to the least well off, of course they have to go.
But Labour is little better.
Its economic policies are identical to those of the Tories, and will fail us all at least as badly as they have done.
As with the Tories, they will outsource most economic decision making to the Bank of England, and they have proved themselves totally incompetent and utterly sadistic in undertaking that task.
When it comes to schools, education, social care, the justice system, the environment and anything else we care about the answer will always be the same. They will say there is no money, and they will wring their hands as talented people walk away, unable to tolerate for any longer the impossible task asked of them.
They will claim everything is contingent on growth but there is nothing in their agenda that will deliver it.
Most especially, they will not tax the wealthiest more, and redistribute the proceeds to those who need more money, which is the best possible way to inject growth into the economy. The result is that inequality will not be addressed and stagnation will continue.
They will not talk about Brexit. It is the elephant in the room at this election.
Nor will Labour restore our human rights, trade union laws, or go near electoral reform, all of which are essential if this is to be a proper Labour government.
As for the environment, nothing of consequence will happen. Labour now sings big business tunes, and tackling climate change is not on their playlist.
Nor is tackling sugar or ultra processed food going to happen for that exact same reason, and both are preconditions for improved health.
Meanwhile, the tackling of money laundering in the City will be as quietly forgotten as enhanced worker rights will be once Labour is in office. Starmer has the same memory capacity for promises made as former Post Office CEOs do for information they were given.
The LibDems remain neoliberal. They are better on Brexit than the others. They can be used to record a protest vote. But I am darned sure that everything they do and say will be designed to win wealthy blue wall votes in Surrey. There won't be much in the way of radicalism from them as a result.
The Greens have still not sorted out their economics, although that's not a major impediment when they have no chance of putting them into effect right now. At least they are biased to ordinary people.
And the SNP is in a mess. Let's not pretend otherwise. The most effective alternative political force in UK politics lost its way because of the comfort of its leadership in playing politics in Holyrood where, ultimately, all the odds are stacked against it. It should have continually told Scotland that its aim was to be rid of Holyrood, rather than enjoy the trappings of power it provided. No wonder that support for independence has remained solid but that for the SNP has not. What will happen in Scotland cannot be known, but Labour is not the answer to any known question in that country.
The situation is not much better in Wales. Plaid Cymru has created its own problems too, and Labour post Mark Drakeford looks out of touch.
In Northern Ireland Sinn Fein will be in the ascendancy. As in Ireland, there will be denial of that fact.
Troublingly, the public has rumbled all this. They say all the politicians are the same. They are right. Too many are. Almost all who will be elected are adherents to the neoliberal ideology that has spectacularly failed us all for decades. It will fail us again.
This election will see us rid of the Tories, probably forever in their One Nation pretence. But it will not deliver change. Things will not get better for most people. How can anyone get excited about that?
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What follows, given the oversight of the tory “electoral commission” can be thought of as “philisophical reflections” – which apparently is OK.
So the major parties have no polices. That said, Politico noted that the BoE will cut interest rates a couple of times in the next few months – which will, assuming anybody in their right mind (a philisophical expression) votes for LINO (shorthand for Labour) give a temporary boost to LINO and allow Reeves to preen somewhat.
There are independents. 50 odd are standing mostly with a focus on local stuff. How far they get is anybody’s guess. Various web sites exist to support them and I encourage readers to seek them out. Or indeed contact me, I have a full list of all candidates and would be happy to engage with readers of this august organ in philisophical discussions on democracy and its shortcomings in the UK.
The above should be regarded as an exercise in irony (just in case electoral commissioners are reading)
All very true. Have to admire your following turn of phrase though very journalistic:-
“Starmer has the same memory capacity for promises made as former Post Office CEOs do for information they were given.”
If only it could go on an a general election billboard throughout the country!
Thnak you
In the para about the SNP, I think you mean “rid of Westminster”, rather than “rid of Holyrood”.
No, I mean what I say. Holyrood, as it is, is a sham to be rid of. Scotland needs the real thing.
I fear you’re wrong on Sinn Fein for 2 reasons.
Firstly, a Westmimster election is a non-sequitur since the party refuses to take up any seats won.
Secondly, they are in no way, shape or form a neoliberal party but probably the only socialist party that will win any seats in the upcoming election.
Big picture, it doesn’t matter in a Westminster election but I think it’s somewhat sloppy of you to lump them in with the narrative of your piece.
A narrative with which I otherwise completely concur!
I didn’t think I had lumped them in. I was highlighting, I thought, their exceptional nature. Apologies if I failed by using too few words.
No worries Richard, as I said I think you’re spot on with your analysis of the parties who will take their seats when they get elected to Westminster.
My only hope is that Sinn Fein put up enough candidates in the next Irish general election to win an outright victory and finally end our own tory hell with FF and FG.
I don’t know if your British readers are aware of this, but in the last general election our then incumbant lost the election, but the parties ending in places 2 and 3 concocted a deal to form a coalition and split being PM between them!
I am very aware of it
“but the parties ending in places 2 and 3 concocted a deal to form a coalition and split being PM between them!”
That is really weird.
Hi Richard,
I wonder about Brexit and its importance in this election. Candidates certainly have to face up to, and address, its impacts, without a doubt, but listening to other content, such as that from Anand Menon and his team at UK In A Changing Europe, suggests that rejoining is a non-starter. Every speaker from a member state that’s been on there recently that I’ve heard has said the European Commission and the member states have moved on. They aren’t interested. It doesn’t come up in discussion anymore. The UK made a decision eight years ago and that’s that, as far as they’re concerned. In addition, the terms for rejoining, if it ever got to that, would, of course, be very different to the terms on which the UK left. There’s seems little doubt about that. That doesn’t mean the UK and the EU can’t speak to each other, but any party like the Lib Dems that campaigns to rejoin, risks going down a cul de sac (pardon the pun in a European language), it seems to me.
Ralph,
Why would the EU want the UK back????
The EU seems to be better than OK since BREXIT which is more than can be said for the UK.
I think they would, on different conditions
My partner is an ex-European Commission official. She retired recently and was given a very nice volume – the Official History of the European Commission up to 1972. On the few last pages it notes that in retrospect, allowing the Uk to join what was then the EC – ………..was a mistake. The official History.
UK, England whatever – you aint getting back in. Get used to it.
(Scotland, on the other hand is a different case!).
An interesting Labour case is whether they will reinstate Dianne Abbott. Starmer’s instinct will be not to – and so avoid Mail headline ‘Labour re-admits far left anti semite’.
This, despite more than a year of internal ‘independent’ investigation – following her apology for saying black people suffered more daily racism than Jewish or Irish etc.
How on earth Starmer will be able to say he had to parachute in another of his own faction because the investigation into her case was ‘not yet completed’ – but his recent record suggests thats what he will do, despite the risk of her standing and getting elected as an independent.
I tweeted about this earlier today
“following her apology for saying black people suffered more daily racism than Jewish or Irish etc.”
Please remember I am a Yank but I must take-up for Ms. Abbott and admit that her statement has a loud ring of truth to my North American ears especially in North America.
It does with me too
But she got the politics of it all wrong
This election campaign reminds me of drought times in my home country down under, when you live in hope for some clouds. Then the clouds might thicken, and even drop some rain on the parched soils. Sometimes you get some rain with some small green shoots breaking through the dusty ground, only to be scorched once more by the sun, that seems to win the battle more often than not.
It is only when a general soaking rain comes, and there is follow up that the pastures return to their life giving role.
A bit like the politics in the UK in the moment. Not enough soaking rain to settle the dust and let the green shoots of progressive thought give life.
It is the hope that gets you in the end.
I’ll offer my opinion on why now –
First it’s to satisfy the fairytale that we have a democracy and choice – the changing of the guard, the two party state model that somehow means that fake choice .. which pretty much long ago disappeared with the invention of NuLabour.
Delayed by 7 years due to the miracle of Corbynite Old Labour, which had to have a stake put through its heart to make it safe for the ‘uniparty’ to ply the pantomime ‘change’ now. Having neutered the recent non-blairites and retaken control of the local party machinery so that only ‘safe’ candidates will be chosen for the safe seats.
Second and much more seriously,
it’s geopolitical.
We are at a crossroads where the Collective West either admits defeat of its unipolar Rules based world order or, more likely does what it has always done – double down, our masters have never shown they have a reverse gear or are willing to perform a u-turn.
This selection of arch neocon Blairite appointee Starmer is aimed at the worst sentiments of warmongering – supremacism.
The World is to be split into Us the Golden Billion and Them, the majority of Humanity.
Our Masters can’t live in a multipolar Law based order with a polycentric system of respect for other civilisations and their mores.
It means giving up everything, the centuries of imperialism through which our modern world and our wealth by theft exists.
It is unraveling daily faster from oceans to oceans. From the EurAsian steppes to the disputed rivers and seas. Africa and the Pacific Islands and even the long conquered South Americas and the Sub Continent. If as it seems India follows Pakistan in aligning with that new reality – there is no need for all the fake multiculturalism that barely covers the cracks of inbuilt systemic racism of the AngloEuropean people’s entitlement to set agendas and dictate behaviours.
I doubt much of that will even form an electoral discussion agenda as we escalate our military industrial behemoths product usage daily now. Blinded by our controlled media narratives.
My prediction – a massive landslide for the Great Knight Dope, with a high turnout bolstered by an exceptional number of postal votes, even at the height of summer.
If Blair himself reappears on the worlds stage (I fear same for the US) then we can be certain that We have chosen the worst possible path.
What should people vote? A genuine anti war pro multipolar independents.
Failing that option, a methodical spoilt vote, which still is counted! Implying None Of The Above, and will serve to add to the improbable ‘turnout’.
Enjoy the summer folks anyway, if the sun ever comes out and warms the air up along with our aging bones.
“And the SNP is in a mess. Let’s not pretend otherwise. The most effective alternative political force in UK politics lost its way because of the comfort of its leadership in playing politics in Holyrood where, ultimately, all the odds are stacked against it. ”
Well, the SNP is certainly being portrayed in the unionist media as ‘a mess.’ (And we all know how truthful and unbiased the media always is, when it comes to Scotland’s independence.) Unionists know that if they can weaken SNP support by making it look shambolic, they weaken the likelihood of Scotland’s independence. So that’s what they do. Make the SNP look Baaaad. “It’s lost its way,” yadda yadda yadda.
Time will tell if this ploy has worked or not.
The SNP has been entrusted with the governance of Scotland at Holyrood, ever since 2007, and in the teeth of overwhelming opposition, obstacles, a tsunami of hysterical anti-SNP media stories, a shortening of funds, a power grab when we were forced out of the EU, etc …they have STILL managed to make Scotland the most prosperous part of the UK, while managing to put the welfare of the people of Scotland first. Not to mention taken a stand against Israel’s hammering of Palestine, offered refugee room to the victims of the war in Ukraine and other places, have retained free education through university, have the best performing NHS in the UK, have gone a long way to mitigating the austerity imposed by Westminster, maintained free prescriptions, etc etc. The SNP’s intentions for Scotland are exactly what so many sane people in the rUK have been hoping their own parties would adopt.
As the First Minister of Scotland, the SNP leader is obliged to do the ‘day job’ as well as work for independence as SNP party leader. Making a success of Holyrood is hardly working against Scotland’s best interests! In fact, it’s showing Scots, Westminster, and the rest of the world what Scotland’s priorities are, and how they can be made to work—even in the teeth of overwhelming legal and financial opposition and political ridicule.
Westminster and its pet media have everything to lose if Scotland votes for independence. Scotland is the cash cow they can’t afford to lose. So they will do everything they can in the meantime to prevent that from happening, including portraying the SNP as a ‘mess.’
You want to look at a mess? Look at the rest of the UK.
Read my article in The National today…..
Interesting discussion with James Schneider on Politics Theory Other dropped this morning.
https://www.patreon.com/poltheoryother. (usually for subscribers only but this seems to be open)
If I understood correctly, he thinks that 6 to 18 months into a do nothing Labour government, disillusion will be such that it could provide the potential for an alternative political party or coalition to form.
On two party democracies, he says: “Either you have two broad factions of capital with their different coalitions that compete with each other as you see in the United States , or you see, more like in Britain, where one runs themselves into the ground and then the machinery of the state is handed over to the other one to take over for a bit until the A team has patched itself back together and can take over again.”
That has happened in Australia – a switch to Labor after the Scott Morrison clown show; in NZ (despite proportional representation) from the do “nearly nothing” Labour Party of the much lauded Jacinda Adern … and now the UK after “only” 14 years.
I buy that
Interesting post, Richard.
I note that you haven’t made any reference to Workers Party GB, which seems to represent the interests of the working population.
What do you think of their prospects?
Not a hope, I suspect