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It is but doesn’t matter as it is gaining far more from the centre ground and it is this which will get the party elected.
And they too are more than willing to leave it.
It’s strategy is very high risk
Thank you and well said, Richard.
Last week, some old family friends and mine gathered. The father and mine joined the RAF together from the colonies in the mid-1960s.
The family are lifelong Labour activists, but resigned en masse and in disgust soon after new year. They supported Starmer, competence and Corbynism plus a bit of Europeanism, as they likened it, much to our amazement.
On their way out, the Blairite local officials told them Starmer is aiming for a long-term centrist realignment and shaking off extremists, not fleas this time, and even EU enthusiasts.
Labour is obsessed with getting Tory and swing voters to support it, at the same time treating left wing voters with contempt if not positive dislike.
To piss off your ‘natural” supporters in favour of the wrongheaded Tory voters and ‘don’t know much’ swing voters is indeed very risky. And if labour really is so stupid as to try and stick to the fiscal rules nonsense when local government, the NHS, the armed forces, the civil service and failing privatised services desperately need substantial investment will lose these voters very quickly.
After all, however competent and accomplished these voters may be in their own lives when it comes to the wider national picture as represented by politics, they haven’t got a clue.
The vibe we are hearing is “tired of politics” want action e.g. want bloody potholes fixed (the e.g. list is very very long). Other vibe: LINO policyless and nobody thinks that the LINO narrative: “grow the economy” is in the least credible. Yes they might form gov, but given current narative, it will fail, tories moving to the right – fail. Fail,
As long as the main three parties are stuck in corner shop accounting land – applied to the country – there will be no change. None.
As Hemmingway said: bankruptcy happens slowly then quickly – state failure – 40 years in the making & now accelerating.
I wouldn’t even rule out the possibility of Labour being removed before a single term is up. This country is a lot less forgiving of Labour govts than Conservative ones. If all they’ve done after 4 years is slow down our national decline slightly (as is likely, given their fiscal straitjacket), people of left, right and centre will lose patience with them.
God almighty Colonel, does labour now class those who opposed the Brexit lunacy/lie as extremists? Are those who want failed privatisations dealt with extremists? Like Alan Bates for example whose taken in the disgusting PO management over the Horizon debacle?
I suppose peaceful climate emergency protesters are extremists now?
Thank you.
Yes. With regard to the EU, it’s ironic as many of the Blairites based (public) opposition to Corbyn on Brexit. It was a scam then and is a scam now.
I should have added that New New Labour is keen for its ethnic minority activists to leave. They dilute the message, image etc.
Thanks Richard – clear, crisp, succinct and to the point.
I largely wholeheartedly agree.
However, I will say (and it’s a point I’ve said here before), that as voting Tory is very heavily skewed towards the retired old, with the under 55’s overwhelmingly voting Labour/Lib Dem/Green (Tory wins are on the back of the old), that the changing demographics (and this is quite a recent phenomenon as old and young voted Labour or Tory in far less concentrated ways in the past) will be even stronger in 2029.
Phil Burton-Cartledge in his book ‘The Party’s Over’ (published by Verso) emphasises that the working age population who back Labour election after election, and especially the young, priced out of the housing market, will not likely vote Tory – unless the Tories change into a party: that builds more houses, invests more in public services, is genuinely socially liberal, is green and is more internationalist and pro-European. I.e. the Tory party will have to change into a Macmillanite ‘Christian Democrat’ style party. That doesn’t seem likely in the medium term, and it also seems what Labour should be like!
Therefore, a likely Tory lurch to the right will pose great difficulties for the Tories going forward.
Phil Burton-Cartledge’s book is very well worth reading!
Fair point…but I am not completely persuaded. The swing voter definitely exists.
As does the youthful Tory supporter – check out University Conservative parties, check the number of young disenchanted with democracy and favouring a “strong leader”.
@Duncan MacInnes
The long term decline in Tory voter base doesn’t necessarily mean long term Labour renewal. If too little changes under the next Labour govt (and it ain’t looking good), the young will simply lose faith in electoral politics as a means of change.
The Starmer Party are poisoning democracy! For the young having to pay increasingly large amounts out of their income for renting a roof over their head they’ll look at the failure of the Blair/Brown governments to do anything substantive to stop this and adopt an attitude of “once bitten twice shy”!
Slightly off topic, but amused me.
I have just received the electoral addresses booklet for the North East Mayoral election. There are 6 candidates. The Reform and The Green Party candidates chose not to write an address for inclusion, or pay the £3.500 required to be paid towards the cost of the booklet.
Of the remaining 4 candidates:
1 has ‘Labour and Co-operative’ on their address
1 has ‘An Independent’ on their address
1 has ‘Liberal Democrats on their address
1 has written their address on different shades of blue, with a union jack on the photo of the candidate. The list of Candidates shows that he is a Consrvative candidate but the word ‘Conservative’ appears nowhere on the address.
Do you think the Tories are trying to pretend they aren’t?
Yes, in a word
They know that they are toxic
Doesn’t the Labour mayoral candidate have a union flag on the address or in a photo or logo?!
Ah… I’ve heard of local Labour groups not liking the new new Labour branding.
As the parties become narrower and not ‘broad church consensus based’, disillusion with UK FPTP electoral politics will grow; and we’ll get more minority, fringe, extreme and ‘independent’ candidates (The Yorkshire Party, The Heritage Party,…) and MPs elected with decreasing actual vote shares; probably from declining turnouts. And some will seek extra-parliamentary means; or become single-issue (sometimes big-issue…) activists and pressure groups. Which may have positive outcomes or could be part of the mix of public and political disorder on the road to fascism.
No union jack on the Labour pages, just the Labour red rose. We don’t put up with that southern softie new new labour sh**e up here!
The left vote is already starting to move away from Labour. My link with Labour after 45 years as a party member has now been broken and like thousands of other people I doubt very much I could be persuaded to return because of the right wing policies they now espouse. The Labour Party now looks to what they term “hero voters” the ones who swing directly from Tory to Labour, the profile of these voters is Brexit-supporting and socially conservative. Those on the left who have stood shoulder to shoulder with Labour and articulate the need for a fairer society are now told they are no longer welcome, the outcome is the Labour party membership is now shrinking and no longer have the people to go out and campaign for a society based on fairness and equality. I anticipate in five years time the Labour Party being a shell of what it is today and once those “hero voters” who have swung between the established parties realise they both have no answer to the problems ordinary people face I sense they will move to a more right wing authoritarian party who will sell them false promises based upon blaming ‘others’ for why society is failing them.
Peter, you may have seen some of my comments etc.
You may have worked out that I am trying to organise independent candidates. it would be nice if you felt you could join us. I am very happy to tell you what we are about. If you are interested – just let Richard know & I will contact you. We need a change of direction – but we need people to drive that change.
I suggest that a change in the law is needed so candidates need to state their Party
They do have to state their party on the ballot paper and on any list of candidates. Just not on their election address!
Superb as ever, Richard.
I hope readers won’t mind if I summarise at some length an example I find illuminating (from Mark E. Thomas) of how Labour’s obsession with wooing Tory voters could spell disaster once they gain power, namely the large-scale insulation of our leaky homes:
‘The government lets HMT [the Treasury] shape the stimulus so that the government cannot act on the supply-side – that is left to the market;
‘The stimulus does drive demand, initially up to the level of capacity – which means that business happily meets that demand – and then beyond it. CEOs will hire already-skilled people for demand they can see, but after 16 years of false dawns, will be reluctant to make a major investment in training and developing new capacity for the future. They raise prices while they wait to be convinced that the demand will be sustained;
‘The Home Office does not allow immigration of ‘semi-skilled’ people, only those whose salary exceeds the threshold;
‘So inflation takes hold, and the BoE raises interest rates;
‘The OBR [Office of Budget Responsibility] notes the combination of higher stimulus spending and higher interest rates and warns of ‘serious risks’ to the nation’s debt sustainability;
‘The media react hysterically, talking of the government ‘bankrupting the country’ and ‘economic Armageddon.’
‘[And so] the government will, at best, suffer a huge loss of public confidence and at worst be forced to abandon its plan for green transition before it has made a significant impact.’
And of course there’s every reason to think that this scenario could be repeated across the board.
Thanks
Well, no council elections for me on May 2nd, but I have got our ballot papers for the Plice and Crime Commissioner for Herts police area. So, 4 candidates, a tory, a green, labour and LD.
I don’t know how valid or useful these Police Commissioner elections are, and in Herts the tory usually romps home (although only about 10% of the electorate even bother voting for this position), but that’s 2 votes for the green candidate.
Labour may not win. Many active members left or were expelled. Remaining members are contributing fewer donations and are less likely to actively campaign. Many constituencies will
have alternative leftwing candidates, parties or independants, that will take votes from Labour. Labour’s lack of support re Gaza will take a lot of votes away.
If Labour wins the left will try to agitate via unions for pay rises and socialist policies.
MMT is sadly never mentioned by Labour.
We need a lot of leftwing education to involve more folk.
It’s very depressing.