Boris Johnson has been like a wrecking ball in the last week. His premiership is in tatters. His party is torn asunder. His majority has long gone. It looks as if his days are numbered. And still he has to get a deal if he is to avoid breaking the law, as he has long said he will do.
Bizarrely the complete mess he has made of things so far gives him that chance. Without any hope of a majority the DUP have no control over Johnson any more: their power base was entirely dependent upon providing the government with the votes it needs. Their votes now count for nothing when Johnson is so far from a majority any more.
But, that means Johnson could suggest the obvious solution, long favoured by the EU, to the Irish backstop question. That is to have a border down the Irish Sea. I know it divides Northern Ireland form the UK. But it is already. And not just physically. It has a separate legal system. And the differences are not just semantic: in some cases they have been fundamental, as the abortion issue proved. There are ample other examples.
Such a move will, of course, inflame the DUP. I am not unaware of the risks: they are real. But then, so too is the risk of an Irish border real, and maybe more so. There is no non-risky solution here. There is nothing about Brexit, anywhere, that does not require unnecessary and inappropriate risk to be taken. But of all the risks that it involves this one seems one of the more logical to take: that's the best that can be said for it.
It respects the Good Friday Agreement.
It reflects economic reality.
It reflects geographic reality.
It even reflects political reality if only Stormont was to get its act together.
I stress: it's far from optimal. But only revoking Article 50 delivers optimality.
But in a situation where no outcome is good Johnson could opt for a possible solution today. And if he did rather bizarrely I suspect he could get an EU deal done and through parliament well before the end of October.
That's not what I want, but I think it has to be noted as an option. And given that the Tories are no longer Conservative, why presume that they are Unionist either?
I suspect nothing like this will happen. But it has to be noted as existing as an agenda item.
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It’s the only feasible way forward to accommodate Brexit, as I see it.
IANAL, but I am convinced that no deal will result in the N.I. question being resolved in a courtroom, be it domestic or international. For that reason no deal is not a feasible option and those arguing for it are either being dishonest in not explaining that or they don’t understand it themselves.
I realise it is not an issue that most people worry about – but where shall the boundaries to and from the Isle of Man be sited and who will police them?
Being situated in the “Irish Sea” and geographically handy for Scotland, Wales, England. N Ireland, Eire and the rest of the IT world the location is potentially problematical and of course the IOM is not part of the UK nor the EU (even according to present constitutional arrangements).
And whilst the London government tried (not successfully) to stop the vast smuggling trade from the Island in 1765 ( and over subsequent years) it is no longer barrels of brandy or sacks of tea that defy the regulations but more likely to be electronically pulsed £billions.
Is there such a thing as an IT backstop?
mike dun says:
” — but where shall the boundaries to and from the Isle of Man be sited and who will police them?
…….I realise it is not an issue that most people worry about. ”
Well you are quite right about that. Hardly anybody gives a damn. Except perhaps Richard if there are interesting taxation issues. 🙂
I admit this is only an issue I am worried about to prevent abuse
If there is a cost to the IoM of whatever we do, so be it
What you are proposing is precisely what the UK Government was proposing prior to the EU Council meeting in December 2017. One phone call from Arlene Foster to Theresa May while the latter was dotting the is and crossing ts of an outline agreement with the Commission scuppered it. The Brexiteers were rabidly in support of the DUP. And the SNP also saw an opportunity to secure a special status within both the UK and the EU. The panicked government response was to include the entire UK within the customs union until the Irish land border issue was resolved. And so we are where we are.
Indeed the PM has doubled down on his support for the DUP by cunningly exploiting a key feature of the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement which requires consent in both communities for any political or status changes. He is now claiming that the backstop is anti-democratic as it opposed by a majority on the unionist side.
There is no doubt there’s a majority in NI for some sort of “both/and” arrangement that keeps NI in the UK and in the EU customs union and single market. It is not only SF, the SDLP, Alliance and the Greens who would support it; there are moderate unionists who also know on which side their bread is buttered. The entire Good Friday/Belfast Agreement and its subsequent St Andrews development are based on this nebulous-“both/and” approaches. But the DUP has dug itslf in to a position from which it can’t budge.
Equally the EU finds it can’t budge. It has to defend the binding international treaties that underpin its functioning and the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement. The integrity of the customs union and the single market are absolutely fundamental to its existence. Its preference is for special status for NI until the Irish land border is sorted. The UK government chose to retain membership of the customs union. As Michel Barnier has pointed out: that was a British choice.
I agree. I’ve said the same myself, many times. Mr Johnson is off to Dublin today. He has no majority in the HoC. He no longer needs the DUP to keep his government running (or “rampaging” might be the more appropriate verb). He would be well advised to solve the Backstop problem simply by agreeing to a customs union border down the Irish Sea. The majority of voting in NI voted remain. All non Unionist NI parties are remainer oriented. The DUP and the Unionists is an albatross round the UK government’s neck. Mr Johnson has zero loyalty to friends, family, party, country, humanity. During the war, his hero and role model, W Churchill, was willing to hand over the six counties to De Valera if Ireland would allow Irish ports to be used as bases by the allies. He therefore may well be tempted to dump the DUP and go for a border down the Irish sea. DUMP the DUP. Problem solved.
This current right wing government are no longer one nation Tories so the Union breaking up might we’ll be their aim. We know Scotland is almost at the point of independence and they strongly favour remaining in the EU as do Northern Ireland. Are we seeing the end of the UK as we know it? It also fits well into the little Englander trope and the rise in English Nationalism. If the Union were to break up it would also leave the Tories with a permanent majority in Parliament
Historically they have not had a permanent majority in England…
Geoff Plant says:
“This current right wing government are no longer one nation Tories so the Union breaking up might we’ll be their aim. ”
I don’t think so. Not if they understand what the Scottish economy is worth to UK Plc HQ at Westminster. They may be prepared to lose Scotland as a matter of convenience (or sheer carelessness) but I’m pretty sure they will not have planned to do so. They can’t be that stupid….or can they….?
They can be…
I don’t believe the future wellbeing of anyone or anywhere is of any concern to the cabinet & PM. All they care about is how much money they can get from tearing the country apart and flogging it all off to the highest bidder. I assume what happens to us after they’ve acheived that is of no interest to them whatsoever.
Boris doesn’t want a deal though, does he? Being a disaster capitalist what he wants is a disaster, and a no deal Brexit, if constitutionally arrived at and accepted by the EU, would certainly fit the bill. He’ll be ignoring the obvious here, I’d imagine, with the profits to be made from practicing disaster capitalism in mind.
Does he though?
I think you have a higher opinion of Johnson than I do.
In fact, he has always been a dilettante. He wanted to be prime minister. Now he would like to stay on the horse as long as he can.
I think he will do whatever works for him.
If that means throwing the Ulsters under the bus so be it. I have scant sympathy for the DUP myself.
[…] Could Johnson take the initiative and solve the Irish backstop today? Richard Murphy (UserFriendly) […]
That seems to imply a cliff edge Brexit for the rest of GB at the end of 2020 unless we have new agreements with the EU to compensate. How likely is that? It could potentially be just as bad as no deal.
Colleen Jones says:
“That seems to imply a cliff edge Brexit for the rest of GB at the end of 2020 unless we have new agreements with the EU to compensate. How likely is that? It could potentially be just as bad as no deal.”
I don’t see how you come to that conclusion…… what would happen in 2020? Am I missing something?
No – it could very easily be me missing the point, and I hope I am! In the current WAB the transition period ends Dec 2020, then the backstop starts. If the transition period end doesn’t change, but the backstop becomes NI only, what does that mean for GB? In the absence of deals, it seems that end end of the transition period will be just like a no deal exit (GB only.) I’m highly sceptical of FTAs, mini deals ( if they even exist as a legal possibility under WTI) etc being in place by then.
An interesting ‘take’ on what a having a big enough minority would allow Johnson to do.
That’s delightfully counter intuitive.