A majority of 230 says it all.
Three thoughts. First, if anyone harms democracy it is Tory MPs who voted against their party and leader tonight and will say they have confidence in May tomorrow.
Second, once a no confidence motion is over and done with the next job of Parliament is to pass legislation to prevent a no deal departure from the EU on 29 March. The EU Withdrawal Act has to be amended to ensure that parliament does get its wish on this.
Third, next parliament has to postpone Article 50 notice on the grounds that we need time to hold an election or a referendum, which not being known as yet.
Those are the only real courses of action that can be taken immediately. Then there is time for a little more consideration. That is essential. And that has to happen without the clock ticking too loudly.
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Entirely agree – but thats the sensible course
Unfortunately May is looking more and more like a Mugabe, clinging to power and pursuing the same course regardless of the consequences, Its just a question of when the even nastier elements in her own party turn on her.
No Robin , they’ve already been through the motions of a leadership spill that they all knew would fail and now, according to the Tory’s own rules, she’s locked in for another year. She would have to leave voluntarily, on principle, and doesn’t seem inclined to do that.
Sadly Marco I fear that you are right. Though we are in a period where rules and precedents may be broken
I’m going to say it even though it will make no difference.
‘The People’ did not vote for BREXIT. 48 % voted to remain, 52% to leave. The turnout was about 66%?
The truth is that some people voted for in and others, out. It was not an overwhelming victory.
And then there is the basis of the vote. Was it an honest, fair and transparent exercise as befitting one of the world’s oldest democracies? Bollocks.
All May did in her riposte to tonight’s vote was aggrandise herself with the leave voter/just fed up contingent yet again and thus effectively undermined the sovereignty of Parliament – for which BTW she should be disciplined or spend a night in The Tower.
There are too many doubts to proceed on this basis. The ‘peoples will’ is unsafe and unsound and is no will at all.
Parliament needs to say so.
I think that our constitution (such as it is) has now ran out of crash test dummies.
Pitiful.
I’ve written to my MP Jeremy Hunt more than a few times and every time that is that is the basis of his reply – ‘will of the people’, ‘respecting democracy’ and the rest of that dishonest rubbish.
The shame is that it is so rarely challenged in the media. Though it was refreshing to see Krishnan GM taking on Greased Moggy and Sammy Wilson after the vote when they were spouting rubbish about WTO being a piece of cake.
Channel4 way ahead in the reporting stakes of the BBC
I could not watch the BBC with Andrew Neil
As soon as I heard Neil’s name mentioned I knew that I was not going there!!
72% -but not the largest ever turnout, the postwar elections saw a higher percentage voting.
That’s our glorious “first past the post mentality” in action. It’s been bred into our system for centuries and the last LibCon referendum showed that sadly there is little appetite for a true representative democracy by PR in the U.K.
When Majors government faced a confidence motion virtually once a fortnight the MPs, that voted against the primary legislation preceeding it, all changed their votes. I don’t understand what the DUP think they can achieve by proping up TM longer. As a politics watcher I cannot say what the DUP actually want brexit to look like anyway.
DUP want a no deal don’t they? Thy want the Good Friday agreement demolished.
The DUP are the weirdest part of the puzzle. They are probably the only ones that actually want a no-deal outcome and don’t actually know that they can’t get one.
Might a customs union command a majority in the house and perhaps be acceptable to the EU? I fear a 2nd referendum would give the same result as the first unless a practal leave deal was on the table?
That is a real risk….
Really? I can’t see that risk, I really can’t. Check this out for example:
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/12/11/1544504400000/The-only-Brexit-chart-you-need-to-see/
The immigration ‘invasion’ fear that drove the 2016 result has largely passed and the no-deal crisis/ border chaos realisation has taken over. Furthermore, the Remainer complacency (thinking that they were going to win anyway) from 2016, that factor has gone as well. The youth who felt slighted by the 2016 outcome are also a lot more motivated now and virtually none of them voted Leave. Of course the polls clearly indicate a good result for the 2nd referendum and yes, they let us down last time but that’s not the only factor I’m looking at.
Unless I am missing something I can’t objectively see any factors that would indicate a 2nd win for Leave.
Did I suggest that?
David Penn said that “I fear a 2nd referendum would give the same result as the first” I got the impression that you were agreeing by saying “that is a real risk”. Perhaps I misunderstood.
There is no appetite for a referendum as witnessed by May being 6 points ahead of Corbyn. No one believes Labour has a solution. Theresa May is stronger now than at any point in her reign because she has attempted the impossible..that is to reconcile the disparate groups in Parliament. Ironically her bargaining position is now stronger to achieve “concessions” from the EU. There will be considerable pressure from German industry to achieve a deal.. they want to continue to export BMWs etc. We are indeed at the point where a compromise deal is most likely. Theresa May isn’t the ideal broker but that’s what we’ve got.
Respectfully, what a lot of nonsense
I suggest you have a great deal to learn about the nature of negotiating strength
And politics
I don’t for one minute think she is best suited for this role and she faces a near impossible task..but her position is stronger now than at any point, as witnessed by her survival and the opposition not laying a glove on her – this says more about their hopelessness than anything else..my key point is that in the eyes of Europe we are prepared to crash out and I don’t believe they want this – Britain is too valuable to German industry – and I don’t think the EU negotiators at any point thought this stage would be reached. So I believe they will be under pressure to offer concessions to reach a compromise agreement. Concessions they would not have offered earlier in the negotiations..
The EU will let us leave rather than compromise
I promise you – their concessions will be the square root of diddly squat
Do you at least think Germany is putting pressure on EU negotiators? If not then the crash out will not be as bad as we are led to believe as German industy needs Britain
This is simple nonsense
And I am bored by hearing it
Dan says:
“We are indeed at the point where a compromise deal is most likely.”
I don’t see it like that.
It seems to me we are grinding towards a position where we have an increasingly binary choice. Either we have a totally impracticable ‘no deal’ withdrawal the consequences of which will be ….well beyond bad…..and probably chaotic bordering on catastrophic. Or we accept that that Brexit is not deliverable, it was only ever a protest fantasy after all, never a considered policy; and we rescind Article 50 and put it down to experience.
If there was any sort of compromise to be achieved I think there ought to be some idea what it might be. Two years or more of argey bargey haven’t shown it up yet. And to be worth pursuing it would need to offer better prospects than the membership we had in the first place. In the short, medium and longterm.
Every compromise being proposed seems to offer no more than damage limitation.
Dan says: “There is no appetite for a referendum”
lol. You wish!
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/06/britons-would-now-vote-to-stay-in-eu-want-second-referendum—poll.html
The UK now has a government that is unable to govern. We have a prime minister, mrs theresa may (she assuredly does not deserve the honour of initial capital letters) who holds the office but cannot and will not perform the duties that go with that office. She refuses to give up the job, yet refuses to admit that she cannot do the job. Is it not time that someone told her to give up? Is it not time that someone deprived her of the position she occupies so ineffectively and impotently? Isn’t it time she was booted out so that someone more capable could be found to govern? My understanding of the British “constitution” is that only one person has the power and authority to do that: a little old lady in her 90s who took a sacred oath bck in 1953 that she would work for the wellbeing and safety and prosperity of this country, and to guarrantee that justice would prevail in the land. Is it far fetched to imagine a time in the near future when an Emergency Government of National Unity is appointed by Elizabeth Windsor?
Brilliantly, in the worst sense, the fixed term parliament act prevents the Queen from intervening. I heard.
We have to have a second referendum because the first one is invalid.
Leave voters who are annoyed about this should complain to “vote leave” and “leave.eu”.
We are the UK we abide by the rules.
Fundementally the politicians have a “get out of jail free card” if they want to use it, because of the electoral law breaches. (I suspect they don’t want to use it as they don’t want to admit they can’t even run a fair vote anymore).
The same result might happen again but that is democracy.
The Labour Party should back remain again.
They should say, “we believe some people voted leave as they were being left behind by politicians and austerity and we challenge any individuals who did this to switch to remain and we will do everything in our power to make your voice heard and get austerity stopped.”
Let David Lammy lead the remain campaign.
Must be worth a try?
It’s one of the options…
Caroline Lucas’ speech opening the Convention last Friday expresses this magnificently.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/caroline-lucas/how-do-we-ensure-that-project-hope-overcomes-project-fear
Very good
I’ve said this myself before – the BREXIT vote is actually a vote against our own domestic Government so I’m pleased that I’m not the only one who interpreted things this way.
I wrote to a Canadian cousin:
You at least appear to have a functioning government and a reasonably representative form of democracy. I could compare and contrast with the benighted dictatorship of the Disunited Kingdom where the largest ever defeat has been inflicted on our sub-prime minister and her response is that there are no grounds for her to resign and she will continue to work tirelessly to get her deal accepted. I suspect that her strategy now is to bore the pants off everyone in disUK and Europe to the point we all say “f*ck it, we’re off to the pub, do what you want – we’ve lost the will to live.”
I watched the late night news tonight and witnessed a succession of Tories talking about business as usual. There is the over-powering stench of entitlement about everything they say and do. One of them, Transport Secretary (pro tem) Chris Grayling embodied this perfectly when asked “where does this go next?” His response of “we need to go and talk to all the parties and find out what they really want” took my breath away. FFS, these are the people who, throughout the last 2 years, repeatedly refused to discuss Brexit terms and aims with anyone else, particularly the governments of the devolved nations in the UK. Likewise, the EU has repeatedly said “we know what you don’t want, please tell us what you DO want.” So 2 precious years have been wasted by the Tories’ high-handed presumptions of superiority and now, with 73 days to go to the “final bell”, they think the rest of us should tell them what we want so they can rescue victory and glory from the jaws of defeat and ignominy! Well I’ve got news for them: the people they ignored and disparaged would quite like to see them all rot in hell, but not before they’re subjected to a degrading humiliation followed by a thorough roasting over a slow fire and ritual disembowelling before being hanged, drawn and quartered and their heads and limbs displayed in public places around the disUK as a warning to Conservatives everywhere that they’re not wanted here. It might sound a bit mediaeval, but does anyone have any reserves of patience or tolerance left?
The afore-mentioned Chris Grayling, hard though it is to believe, has held ministerial posts throughout this benighted government and was memorably described as “the unflushable turd!”
There was one light moment for me last night however.
The reporter on Midlands Today was there talking excitedly about what was happening and a white bus with ‘Bollocks to BREXIT’ emblazoned on it drove by behind him and past Parliament. Priceless!
I was fascinated with the exchanges from Anna Soubray on CH4. She had voted down the deal but would support her leader against the no confidence vote although voting down the deal is really a no confidence vote anyway of sorts. It’s bizarre.
As we know, May is an obdurate person – an extremist herself, so this will go on and on under the ‘I am just a strong woman’ guise.
Jon Snow’s interview with the constitutional expert (I forget his name) was amazing too.
But the best interviewee was the wee lassie from the SNP who made the DUP rep look from another age and Rees Mogg looked tongue tied and a bit out of it.
But I was also struck by how much the HoC seemed like just another place to work to those who are in it and how focussed they were on their own established internal processes.
There is the a capacity therefore for all sides to work together but to many seem to want to work towards a BREXIT deal of some kind and go with the referendum result which to me is just populist in flavour and not what they are here for.
The Parliamentarians are not here to ratify emotion. They are legislators and they must rule and ratify for all. If they cannot do that, then we need a new system.
Joanna Chery MP is not someone I would call a wee lassy
She has, without a doubt, one of the best brains in parliament
Well, let me say then that she is small in size but big in stature? She came across as a pocket battleship of politician to me – that is what I was trying get over.
I wish she was my MP – that’s for sure. Rees-Mogg was left to have a go at the presenter.
Last night we actually talked about moving to Scotland. Honestly.
And why not?
My wife has discussed it with me – and said she would happily go if I did
The Soubry contradiction shows how Corbyn is as bad as May in their inability to reach out to MPs and members of other parties. Or come to that, all the MPs and members of their own parties.
Richard,
“…if anyone harms democracy it is Tory MPs who voted against their party and leader tonight and will say they have confidence in May tomorrow.”
I’m certainly no Tory supporter but you are not being fair here.
This Brexit impasse is highly unusual – it isn’t at all the same situation as a PM bringing strictly UK based legislation to parliament and getting heavily defeated thanks to huge numbers of the governing party’s MPs voting against. Obviously that should result in a GE – no question.
The reality here is that the government is acting as a middleman negotiating Brexit, on behalf of the British people, with the representatives of the various nations of the EU. The British public were promised that parliament would honour the outcome of the 2016 referendum and so normal parliamentary sovereignty cannot practically be exercised on the subject of Brexit without risking a very significant public backlash.
So Tory MPs can absolutely vote against the PM’s proposed deal with the EU and still have confidence in the PM and still want to leave the EU. Pretending the situation is exactly the same as normal parliamentary business in order to claim our democracy is broken is incredibly partisan and exactly the sort of thing that will break British democracy.
Personally I’d accept whatever Brexit outcome is most likely to avoid a catastrophic collapse in public support for democracy. That’s a big part of the reason I favour Brexit (and at this point that pretty much means no-deal).
I think our cohesion as a nation and our continuing belief in democracy and our political system is far more important than Brexit. My biggest bugbear with the whole process is the vast numbers of intelligent people with public platforms who have taken extremely partisan positions and given no quarter in public discussion. This has greatly advanced the polarising effect of Brexit, contributed to the current deadlock and risks a very serious political dislocation in this country.
Parliament voted for a non-binding referendum
That is what we had
And the Leave campaign was illegally conducted
The premises of your argument all fail
Richard,
My argument is not based on the premise that the referendum was legally binding. It is based on the premise that the perception was created in the minds of the electorate that the government would act according to the results of the referendum and so leavers will be angry and despairing of democracy if parliament unilaterally blocks brexit.
My argument is not based upon the premise that the Leave Campaign was morally beyond reproach. It is based on the premise that the British public are now very seriously divided on the issue of EU membership and that the strange occurrences in parliament are partly a reflection of parliamentarians’ attempts to balance that reality with their other competing loyalties.
Our disagreement is here: you think the risks arising from Brexit outweigh the risks arising from increasing political polarisation in the UK whereas I think the opposite.
I think the political situation is now such that we will most likely not be leaving the EU. Therefore it’ll be my fear of civil unrest, demagoguery and the collapse of our democracy that will be put to the test. As such I sincerely hope that you are proved correct.
Only time will tell
Adam Sawyer says:
“[…..]…….risks a very serious political dislocation in this country.”
I think we’ve had that for quite some while. I think we’ve had four decades of it. That’s why every time one of our politicians whines about ‘the Will of the people’ having been expressed in the Brexit referendum I want to scream. It is such an empty phrase.
Andy,
Please don’t mistake my position of genuine concern for our peace and democracy for the self serving and manipulative protestations of certain politicians.
I’m well aware neoliberalism has been shitty for most over the last 40 years. However there are some “isms” possible in our futures – I just don’t know now how best to avoid them.