I read two articles on Brexit last night from which, I felt, elements might be combined. The first was from the always excellent Flip Chart Fairy Tales blog (which I strongly recommend) where it was argued that:
There are essentially 3 reasons why customs borders exist:
- To impose tariffs and quotas;
- To confirm the imports' countries of origin;
- To ensure compliance with regulations and standards.
A free trade agreement with the EU would only get us over the first of these. To avoid the second would require continued membership of the EU Customs Union (or the negotiation of something similar). To avoid the third we would need to stay in the European Economic Area and abide by the rules of the single market.
This gives the government a problem. If it is serious about its guarantee of no border checks, it can't fulfil its stated aim of leaving the Single Market and Customs Union. Yet, almost every day, a government minister repeats that the UK will do just that. The problem with this is that the moment the UK leaves the customs union, there have to be border checks. There is really no getting around this.
There is no high-tech solution to make the border disappear. The idea that border checks will take place somewhere discreet, far away from the border, is also nonsense. The law-abiding would comply but the point of border checks is to discourage the would-be law breakers. As officials from Norway and Switzerland explained to MPs in November, even the most technologically advanced countries with the most friendly relationships with their neighbours still have border checks. When you move from one customs regime to another, there is a visible border.
I agree with this. But my conclusion comes from a Guardian editorial:
As Mrs May put it on Monday, Britain is committed to uphold the Belfast/Good Friday agreement, to maintain the common travel area with Ireland and, crucially, to avoid a hard border in Ireland. But these goals — all massively desirable — are not compatible with the UK's departure from the single market and customs union, to which Mrs May remains committed. Any future regulatory divergence between the UK and the EU — between the UK and Ireland — can only create a dangerous situation on the Northern Ireland border with the republic.
It is hard to know which is worse: that Mrs May knows this and does not mind such an outcome, or that she knows it and is pretending to parliament and the public that it is not a problem. Either way, this is the politics of impossibilism and of circle-squaring. Either way, British politics is crying out for truth not fantasy on Brexit. But Mrs May will not and cannot provide it.
Those last two sentences say it all. The reality is known, But we have politicians who are either ignorant of it, or are in denial. Either or both are deeply dangerous. At least some consensus on that is now beginning to emerge.
But Labour still will not say it.
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I agree with you on this unless May is playing a awaiting game of sorts. But what is she waiting for?
I still put it down to a Tory Party tradition – a tradition that comes from the financial sector that sustains it and that tradition is the creation of economic chaos and destruction in order capitalise and profiteer from the resulting melee.
Under the Tories, the British government becomes a bull dozer for the financial system and opportunists seeking to suck out value. Yes some in the financial sector do not favour BREXIT, but others will see rich pickings.
Such destruction is an exercise in power to the Tories and considered a normal part of life. A courageous state would use its power differently of course.
I’d think May’s waiting for us to be declared effectively a colony of America, with their military stationed here in useful quantity, and their insurance companies exploiting the sick and the unemployed.
Yes Bill – I agree that ‘inward investment’ from the US is going to be talked of in glowing terms by the BREXITERs.
Labour is probably more deeply split than the Tories. I reckon Larry Elliott of the Guardian, a leading Lexiteer, is probably closest to the position of the current Labour high command. The former members of the high command, a number now chairing, or participating effectively in, Commons Committees are deeply conflicted. And it is fear of providing an opportunity for the current Labour high command to form a government that is maintaining the flimsy vestiges of Tory unity – and imposing a tiny modicum of discipline on the rabid Tory press. If Corbyn weren’t surrounded by a praetorian guard of tankies the not insignificant number of sensible Tories would have brought this government down by now.
Spot on.
Regardless of Brexit outcome, what if the UK simply refuses to place a customs post at the Republic of Ireland/NI border, and just allows any EU goods into the UK/NI tariff free?
if the EU wants to impose import tariffs on UK exports, then it will be *they/RoI*, and not the UK, who will have to set up a hard border/customs post, in breach of the Good Friday Agreement.
There’s nothing to say the UK *has* to impose import tariffs on EU exports, post Brexit, is there??
Under WTO rules we do not have that option
As the post from Flip Chart Fairy Tales makes clear nothing lets us ignore the other obligations arising on borders to check origin and quality
You also then ignore the fact that the tariffs we do collect now – and they are significant – will all be evaded in this way, leaving us wide open to Chinese dumping
Is that what you really want?
Your comments here are becoming steadily more ridiculous when once they made a lot of sense
Educate yourself https://brianmlucey.wordpress.com/2017/11/22/brexit-whos-going-to-build-the-border/
A very good link. The problem is for many of the more… err… mentally challenged brexiters – it is all too difficult – they canot handle the detail & only think in terms of end-19th century, rule Britannia etc. They would love to go back to more simpler days – sadly that ain’t on offer.
The Guardian Brussels correspondent had a meeting with Michel Barnier and tweeted the very clear diagram that he had produced showing how the red lines identified by the UK government pushed us to a Canada-style agreement (and of course a border in Ireland) –
https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/943037113406238720
Can we imagine anyone in the UK government being able to see things so clearly? 🙂
Now blogged
Many thanks
Happy to help!
Actually Labour are playing a waiting game also. There are a large number of Labour constituencies in the North and Midlands that had “Leave” majorities. As time passes and the impossibilism of Brexit becomes more apparent opinion may start to move in those areas. If I am right then Labour will start to move, by gentle stages, more and more in the direction of being anti Brexit as time passes and the negotiations in Brussels make the problems absolutely clear…
There can’t be that many
Labour voters are 78% Remain now
Richard
thanks. “Flip Chart Rick” and SWR’s Blog are ones I definitely keep an eye on and of course the Government’s position is full of contradictions. It seems HMG is back in full “cake and eat it” or unicorn mode, kicking the can down the road.
Northern Ireland in reality is more a liability than an asset I understand there is considerable resentment of the DUP in the Tory ranks, not least because of embarrassing May last week. I still think an Irish Sea border is likely; there are few that DUP is scared of more than a Corbyn led Government which might implement a border poll (might even entice SF back to Westminster with the promise of one). Indeed the opinion polls are rapidly moving towards a United Ireland. If I were a NI Unionist I would be very worried (but many live in a constant state of paranoia so nothing new there).
The “south” is less and less keen however, whereas there is a romantic attachment to NI, economically it is a “basket case” and the prospect of 0.5m DUP voting “white supremacists” who believe they are “God’s Chosen People” is scary. In many ways also the DUPs paramilitary links are even more insidious than SF and have elements which would quite happily implement “ethnic cleansing” if they felt they could get away with it in the modern world.
I think your analysis is probably right
Cromwell has a lot to answer for
I have just penned a letter to the Guardian in response to this article – about the land border – will have to wait till tomorrow to see if it is printed – where I quoted from a 1983 HM Customs and Excise staff magazine which noted 8 Customs officers had been killed on the border since 1969 and most Customs posts bombed and pointing out that Mrs May seems unaware of the dangers of going back to those days due to her living in the fantasy of leaving the Customs union apparently without being aware of the potential consequences of that policy for the border
I hope it gets in
But if they have not called you it probably won’t – because that’s what they usually do
The way to square the circle is to fudge it. The Tories will be trying to put in place any sort of arrangement so they can claim we’ve left – but in reality we’ll have for all intents and purposes remained. Unfortunately this possibly means they’ll cling onto power until 2022 as Labour can’t oppose the Tories on this as there’s nothing tangible to oppose. Same old lie as Tories saying they want to limit immigration, but really not caring two hoots. Corbyn’s got it right to not join in the lies on top of lies debates, and fight on his own agenda instead.