At 4.30am it is apparent that something quite extraordinary has happened in the general election.
I recognise the reality that the Tories have won 44 per cent of the UK popular vote.
It is clear that the SNP has had a bad night in Scotland but overall won the election north of the border.
But against all expectation Jeremy Corbyn has to be seen as the biggest winner in this election. Labour's result is excellent, with wins in many parts of the country, including in Scotland.
What seems very likely is that Theresa May's gamble has failed very badly indeed. She may lead the largest party but she will not have a majority. With DUP support she may just be able to govern with maybe an effective 328 seats under her effective control. That is important to remember: with Sinn Fein not taking their seats it seems likely that no Progressive Alliance could rule with any confidence.
What does this mean? First, it means that the political momentum is with Labour. Only they will go to the Commons confident with their result.
Second, May's future has to be in doubt, although who might want to succeed her or could plausibly do so (with Boris Johnson an impossibility because of his unacceptability to Europe) is open to question. Rudd may not have a seat; Davis is surely not realistic. Is Philip Hammond the safe pair of hands? Osborne must regret not being there.
Third, I cannot see Labour trying to form a government. The maths makes that look like an impossibility.
Fourth, Brexit negotiations are bound to be in turmoil. It would seem nigh on impossible for meaningful negotiation to take place. But will the EU agree to put anything in hold? The law does not allow it and Article 50 has been triggered. Is the biggest question of all whether it should be withdrawn now?
And does that mean another election is very likely as soon as October to determine just what should happen in the Brexit negotiations? How else can this be resolved?
And if that were to happen is it plausible that the Tories could bounce back?
I have no answers as yet this morning. But the fact that the Tories have had such a bad night is very good news for this country which desperately needed an end to the disastrous rule of the Conservative party.
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I know it great, it great night excellent for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour and bad night the Blairites.
I know it great, it’s an excellent night for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour and a bad night for the Blairites.
Deafening silence from Blair…and Mandelson!
Fifth, The Corbyn leadership has been confirmed and vindicated despite everything that has been thrown at it. The doubters, traitors and naysayers on the Labour side must now eat a piece of humble pie and adjust to the new reality.
Sixth, Blairism ist kaputt, at the very least, Blairites can no longer bore us with the assumption that theirs is the only “electable” alternative. Progressive socialism is back in the mainstream.
Seventh, Neoliberalism has copped another decisive, historic blow. I don’t think that we’ll be seeing a lot of support for austerity economics from now on.
Eighth, Opinion polls are largely rubbish these days. Aren’t they?
At the risk of drawing a slightly long bow its starting to look like the Tories’ hopes have become dependent on some nationalist mistakes in Scotland (where the Conservatives took a few seats from the SNP). If the Tory govt. manages to hang on it will be amusing to think that their continued survival may depend on Scottish votes. I can’t imagine anything more precarious for them than that.
An incredible performance, just look at all those in the party and parliament and elsehwere who were crying out for him to be replaced now shamelessly sucking up to him now and sniffing for jobs. I hope he blows them all out.
I hope he is more broad minded than that
I think that we will be.
He won’t mind having the moral high ground but I can’t see him being blatantly vindictive.
Those that are honest about misjudging him in the past will fare better.
I was going to go to bed last night but as I picked up the exit poll at 22:00 I just had to stay up and did so to 01:00.
I think that this is a fantastic result but also a very problematical one as the country is clearly divided. And it is divided by lies – which makes this fact even worse.
It was so worrying seeing swings to the Tories where there had been a strong leave vote even when Labour won. This mad passion for hating Europe is a very worrying trend. That Labour voters ignored the harshness of the Tories in favour of expressing their disdain for Europe? Bizarre and self-defeating. But based on lies.
To me this result is yet again one of the biggest indicators of Tory misrule of this country. First we get BREXIT by accident and now we get a hung parliament with BREXIT negotiations 11 days away. Tory miscalculation all along the way.
They are not fit for office.
And then there is Labour and Corbyn.
The Leader and the Party now need to conduct themselves very carefully and keep their feet on the ground and make friends where possible. Yes – they have been treated terribly by the media and by each other but now that must end. And they must be measured in their approach. Let’s not get carried away here.
The biggest pleasure for me though has been the turnout and the what looks like engagement from younger people that has contributed to it. If that is the case long may that continue.
And well done Corbyn. You have made a point. Copying the Tories does not work these days. Many of us feel that they have got their party back.
It’s the yoof wot dunnit! Congratulations to the younger, new voters who seem to have made a positive difference. Canterbury, with an increasingly younger demographic, hasn’t had a Labour MP since its inception in 1918. The same ‘young voter effect’ applied in Battersea with Marsha de Cordova’s fantastic win. Turnouts appear to have been above averagely high which also favours the LP. I got my 20 year-old grandson interested and he’s now asking all the right questions. He’ll be thrilled his local Labour MP was re-elected with an increased majority. Amusing to hear all the Tory spin this morning. The big question now is ‘can May stay?’.
Yes, they deserve congratulations. I hope that they are further encouraged by seeing the difference that they have made.
Could not Sinn Fein be persuaded to participate in a Coalition? With the carrot of a referendum for a reunified Ireland?
Its times like these that Sinn Fein’s non-participation is particularly frustrating.
I agree
Very frustrating
The SNP did not have a bad night in Scotland – in spite of the usual media onslaught they won a MAJORITY of seats, which is more than any party did down South of the border, and in any other circumstances would be considered remarkable.
Agreed
Incidentally, triggering an election just after firing the starting pistol on Article 50 must surely go down in history as one of the most unprincipled, deceitful decisions ever made by a UK government (and that’s in the face of strong competition for the top spot).
The Tories won an election partly with an EU referendum as one of their main policies, then reneged on their responsibility to carry through the result of that referendum.
Yes, what a night! I had an hour’s sleep, busy night as an election agent. And fun at the Count ousting a Tory or two 🙂
This binary election has left many excellent candidates losing their deposits, Libs, Plaid Cymru, UKip and Greens. Greens do not have BIG money backing; it is funded through individual small donations and often personal upfront deposit payments. How does the current model promote democracy? Labour candidates are starting to see the benefits of proportional representation, perhaps Single Transferable Vote (STV) and a fair funding model for electioneering, especially in light of massive funding of propaganda via the out of control MSM and internet. Tories have enough backing for elections when and where they decide, let’s push to change this out of date and out of touch system, and engage even more new voters left aside.
My belief in electoral reform is unshaken
I wish I could believe Labour might deliver it
Australia has preferential voting and the Australian Greens get 10 to 17% of the vote at every election.
Australia does not have proportional representation so the Greens miss out on seats in the Federal House of Representatives where they have just one reliable seat. They do,nonetheless, have a large presence in the Senate where a sort of proportional representation holds sway. They often hold the balance of power in the Senate and as such hold a lot of power and influence in Australian politics as a progressive 3rd party force.
The Australian Greens’ large vote is a consequence of preferential voting. Labor usually preferences The Greens and vice-versa, so progressive voters can feel free to vote Green knowing that they won’t be disadvantaging Labor or inadvertently assisting the conservative parties.
Won’t the Troy very slim majority (with DUP help) be reduced more due to ongoing corruption charges for Craig McKinlay if he goes to court?
That would be good..
Well, where to start with this result!?
Taking aspirin for the hangover headache I’ve got as a result of staying up to 4.30 drinking brandy and soda whilst watching Labour do far better than I thought?
Schadenfreude over how the Tories are feeling now?
Feeling enormous admiration for Corbyn, and Momentum when, only a few weeks ago, I’d thought his decision not to block this election in Parliament would end in disaster?
I’ll settle for giving myself a few pats on the back for responding to Labour appeals for donations to book space on the web, targeted at key marginal. YES!
And feeling delighted that May’s arrogance and cynical opportunism in calling this election has well and truly rebounded on her.