I have to admit serious Brexit chaos has arrived sooner than I expected.
Empty super market shelves are happening.
Exporters quite literally cannot export.
Delivery companies have cut services into and out of the UK because legal compliance is too hard, and too expensive to deliver.
It seems that multiple load hauliers, carrying pallets from a number of sources are being especially hard hit.
Now there is suggestion that UK and French customs systems are incompatible and we have only found out now as we did not complete ours in time to trial it.
Northern Ireland is especially hard hit, and in potential real trouble.
And amidst all that, it is now clear musicians lost their right to tour on a single visa because the government chose not to ask for it.
What is apparent is that those who thought that the problems we would face would be at the ports are wrong. The simple fact is that systems are so bad that the ports are simply ceasing to function. Trade is not failing to get through, by and large. It's simply not happening.
Nor is this a problem that it can be suggested has been created by small companies. If John Lewis and M&S can't see a way to viably export now there is a systemic cause to this.
It's easy to say Brexit is that systemic cause. And at one level that is, of course, right.
But Brexit need not have been like this. We could have stayed in the single market. We could have concluded a deal very much earlier and actually trialled how it might work. We could have agreed a deal on Northern Ireland and worked through the consequences.
We could have done Brexit and still had a functioning economy. But we chose to prevaricate and delay. And chaos is the result.
Will it get better? Of course it will. But not without large numbers of business failures, and lost jobs on the way. Business is already facing a Covid crisis. Now some companies face this as well. And cash flows will not survive the double whammy, which is something no one in government seems to understand.
I have accepted the inevitability of Brexit for now. But nothing requires the degree of incompetence that requires failure on the scale now being witnessed. We are facing wholly unnecessary economic risks and the only people to blame are the government.
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This BBC news article doesn’t paint the same picture. Maybe they are part of the “conspiracy”?
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/55573772
What is bizarre is that you think you make your case
The pictures show no freight moving
Which is exactly what is happening
But you ignore that evidence
I will leave it to others to decide upon your objectivity
I have no case to make you do. I am just pointing out a BBC news article which is at odds to your claim..
But it is not at odds with my claim
It supports it
I said the disruption is not at the ports
Jayne, have a read of this link on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ColdChainShane/status/1347885420823130114
This is written by someone who is grappling with the logistics of cold-chain distribution. Anyone with a quorum of brain cells could see this would happen, how can it not?
The only reference to ‘conspiracy’ anywhere in this Blog that I can find is your comment. Your BBC source is baldly if impudently presented as if it somehow it supports your criticism. It doesn’t. Among the plethora of bullet-point export/import problems highlighted by reputable independent sources in the BBC article is this: “The Federation of Small Businesses says a lot of UK firms have temporarily suspended EU imports and exports to see how new changes bed in before deciding on next steps.” Notice they hesitate to claim it will ever be satisfactorily resolved; clearly the best they can hope for is to wait, and see. That is not a solution. So much for free market neoliberalism serving the small businessman.
There is something about your whole approach that reminds me of what has become standard in our current lives and our politics. Facts that do not stand up. Quotes nobody can find. Objections that are mere prejudices. All of it presented under a veil of anonymity. The problem here is that your comment is forcefully presented with the righteous bluster of now conventional, implicit Trumpesque neoliberalism. It is a kind of vacuous bullying, offered from behind a keyboard.
If you have an arguable case, argue it; stop bleating.
“which is something no one in government seems to understand”
The govt has an army of people who know exactly how to get things done.
Another army is available from outside the structure of govt.
Despite decades of failure in IT systems, the govt keeps giving IT contracts to the same companies that failed in the past.
In both brexit and covid, the same people seem to be getting rich out of the govts failure to understand.
Maybe they do understand, how to make money for themselves and friends?
@JohnM and Richard
I have to say that I am wary of conspiracy theories, but it really does seem possible to me that the whole nonsensical BREXIT dance macabre is the product of a group of people intent on creating a combination of disaster capitalism (Ã la Naomi Klein) and creative destruction (Ã la Cummings), all with the intent of massive enrichment of a few beneficiaries.
The links between the noxious Steve Bannon, Trump, Farage, Aaron Banks etc. as regards the deeply flawed Referendum process are plain to see, and it seems to me that BREXIT is only the UK part of a much wider attempt to significantly alter global politics.
Bannon and Cummings were both believers in creative destruction, aiming to produce, in Bannon’s case a white supremacist hegemony. We’ve seen how that has worked out in poor, benighted America, with far too much success for Bannon’s objectives.
I’m probably stretching the conspiracy idea too far to see Cummings’s eugenicist version of creative destruction at work here in the UK, but the disaster capitalism aspect is certainly a component in our current situation, when we have a government plainly led by Johnson, someone who really has no care or concern for anyone but himself, totally lacking in empathy, and possibly sociopathic, as is also Trump, and manifestly so.
I have previously proposed that the Right have been pushing, with ever growing intensity since 1979, when the UK first entered the cul-de- sac called neo-liberalism, to implement what I have long called neo-feudalism.
Under neo-feudalism, the 1% will eventually have ALL the rights, and NONE of the duties, with feudal seigneury not mainly over land, as in medieval feudalism, but over government revenue and funding streams (Tory corruption over PPE contracts a CLASSIC example), and where the 99% will eventually have ALL the duties (including tax, from which the 1% will eventually be exempt), and ALL the duties (including paying for all the services that used to be free, under collective provision).
The conspiracy theory may be untenable, but the moves towards neo-feudalism here in the UK, and white supremacist hegemony in the USA, are both plain to see, and must both be fought and defeated.
Richard has asked for a society based on care and concern. I couldn’t – I’m sure we all couldn’t – agree more. And it seems to me that we are back in a sort of Battle of Cable Street situation, but one in which those threatening a society based on care and concern are not as visible as Cable Street’s Blackshirts, but are equally toxic, but also, alas, far more entrenched in positions of power.
So, we need a politics motivated by care and concern, but also well aware of the threats posed to it, and so willing to fight back hard.
With that in mind, I sincerely hope a whole raft of indictments against the practisers of sedition are issued the day after President Biden takes office.
Here in the UK I would hope an organisation such as Jolyon Maugham’s Good Law Project (see
https://goodlawproject.org/)
would seriously consider reviving the law of impeachment (see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_in_the_United_Kingdom)
against Johnson and his whole Cabinet.
Thanks Andrew
Andrew I think you right to see a conspiracy, only it is not secret. Cambridge Analytical was shown to have links to the American billionaire Robert Mercer. Aaron Banks was in the photo with Trump and Farage at the golden tower. The penny dropped for me when I saw Daniel Hannon’s website Institute for Free Trade and its many board members such as the Australian PM Abott. The list of association organisations included the Tax Payes Aliance, the Cato Institute and the US heritage Foundation which claimed to have written two thirds of Trump’s legislative program. Despite the claim of Trump and the Brexit crew to be against globalism, the associates and program was one of deregulation and perks for the corporations and seriously rich. Brexit and Trump were both masterclasses in distracting the so-called ‘left behind’ from the true causes of their situation. Just after the referendum I checked out Breibart to see what it was about and the lead was Farge thanking Breibart and Bannon fir their help. The real point of Brexit was to impose a “free market” style economy on us without putting it to us in an election, where I think it would be rejected.
Andrew,
In addition to the various threats you identify there is also the subversion of the UK Parliament: law changes by Gov’t diktat without parliamentary scrutiny, lengthy postponement of crucial committee investigation/findings, attempted prorogation etc. Democracy is nullified if a government can act with impunity and without the inconvenience of debate or scrutiny. Small wonder then that the UK Union is under existential threat: what right-minded person would choose to live in such an exploitative state?
Indeed
Andrew Dickie,s comments hit the bull’s eye. In particular, the irony of Boris & Co is that live in a bubble of making Britain Great again while losing an important anchor in USA.
Thanks to those who have commented on my post – favourably, I’m relieved to find. I’d only like to add these, briefer, comments.
First, I entirely agree with Ian Stevenson’s comment about everything being “hidden in plain sight”.
Secondly, I entirely agree with Ken Mathieson’s comments about the subversion of democracy – which is implicit in the concept of neo-feudalism.
Thirdly, as Vikash Tandon says, it’s ironic – actually, grimly amusing – that Johnson’s rag-tag Party (a political Fred Kano’s army, IMO) has backed the wrong horse. And how! As someone on Facebook noted, Jo Biden is a Catholic of Irish descent!! He’s already made it plain that the UK (if it then exists!) will have to “fight its way to the table”!
Fourthly, and I hope I am not taking conspiracy theories too far, but one has to wonder whether this was the unstated game-plan from 1979 onwards, in a project that was clearly going to take a generation to implement, given then the whole game-plan is implicitly contained in the thinking of Nobel Laureate, James Buchanan, influence by the Mt Pelerin society, as set out in this chilling article by Lynn Parramore of the Institute for New Economic Thinking:
https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/meet-the-economist-behind-the-one-percents-stealth-takeover-of-america?s=03
About that “other army”:
“It has cost £375 million to employ private sector consultants since the inception of Test and Trace in the early months of the Coronavirus pandemic in 2020”
https://bylinetimes.com/2021/01/05/government-total-number-private-sector-test-and-trace-consultants/
That’s just petty cash as far as Test and [not] Trace total cost, which is up in the tens of £billions (and suffering from many people not wanting to isolate for ten days if notified they passed someone in the street with covid, so not installing the app (those with phones))
Profitably incompetent?
“We could have concluded a deal very much earlier”
How, exactly? By caving in to all EU demands? Some negotiator you would have made.
As someone who has fallen out with just about every organisation you have ever worked with, then thrown your toys out the pram and stomped off, what weight should we give to your views on negotiation?
We always knew what the EU’s demands would be
They were always obvious
And as Theresa May pointed out, all we did by delaying was cave in (as you would out it) to more of them
Except there was no caving in: the EU set out its terms and we have no choice but agree them as a price of leaving
Your belief that we won anything is very bizarre
And for the record, I have been paid many time in my career to act as a negotiator, because I am quite good at it
You are aware that electricity was traded for fishing rights?
We’re currently drawing/buying 2GW from France, and the UK grid is running at near maximum with a grid load of 45GW. We’ve even got the remaining coal-fuelled stations running at maximum now….if the wind units were not providing 6.6GW, we’d have problems.
In 2026 we’ll have even more problems…
https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-deal-eu-energy-fishing-rights-take-back-control-812197
Never forgetting that we import nearly half of the gas we use to heat, and produce electricity with, and that the price used to be stable across the entire EU. Which we are no longer in.
My brother (the Irish based lorry driver) contacted me last night to say the chaos is getting worse. Now people have cottoned on to travelling further in the UK to Fishguard in Wales to access Ireland because the ferries running directly to Ireland from Europe are excessively busy. But costs are also rising – particularly fuel as journey times lengthen. Also, time away from home for these lorry drivers is increasing and for those with families that’s not good.
You know, I know so many mis-led people who said this wouldn’t happen – and it is. I don’t know what to say to them but they are also telling me that it is not true – just like the Covid deniers.
I can only explain this lack of preparedness by what I know about the market for credit default swaps – that some in the City of London are betting on the collapse of certain companies because of the BREXIT chaos.
Add in British arrogance, years of cross party anti-European sentiment and jingoism and we now have got a perfect storm. I can see it getting worse when the free ports open too.
It’s arrogance that has caused this fiasco. ‘We’re better than the rest of the world’ arrogance. ‘We won the war’ arrogance. Nationalism cloaked in false patriotism, plus simple stupidity.
UK net cost of EU membership in 2018: £9 billion
Population: 67.5 million
Cost per head per week: £2.56
The cost of a coffee in the high street to sit at the head table of the biggest and most successful trading bloc in the history of the world and the world’s principal civilian power. Beneficial trading arrangements with 77 countries, food security, energy security, food standards, product safety, consumer protection, clean beaches, freedom of travel, shared criminal justice, increased security, enhanced international influence. People who voted to give this up are not patriots, or if they are their only excuse is that they were lied to, and it’s about time they woke up.
I agree with you, Richard, though not that it’s only the government to blame. The blame goes wider than that, not least Farage, and when it comes down to it it, all of us – we who voted against Brexit who didn’t argue well enough, those who couldn’t even be bothered to pick up a pencil and vote, and all who were led by the nose. What a sorry state of affairs. Eventually it must dawn on people.
Thanks
“Oh look there’s a giant iceberg ahead should we give it a name?”
“Yes, how about “Double Whammy Chumocracy”?”
“Why Chumocracy?”
“It’s the Eton way!”
Speaking to a customs clearance manager in Calais yesterday (yes the French do work over the weekend while having a most civilised attitude to lunch), the biggest problem is with consolidated loads and differing paperwork. Also mentioned English “attitude”. Oh well.
It is both interesting and instructive to compare this report from BBC Scotland, with the one linked by Jayne, above:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-55584500
And further information on the unfolding situation is found here:
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87847
Both links were originally posted by the excellent Yves Smith.
These are early days, but on the strength of these, there is a really rough ride bearing down at great speed.
I am certain your conclusion is right
All sorts of things seem to be going wrong – one ferry was double booked according to my brother and around 40 lorries had to park up somewhere for the night at one port.
He reckons that customs checks have put him back 8 hours. However, once the learning sets in, things might improve. People are doing their best to make it work but there’s a lot of hassle.
He has been running full loads from Ireland to the UK/France whereas before he might be picking up trailers dropped off for him at certain points in the journey by other drivers.
He attributes this to a sudden drop off in driver numbers – some have had enough already – there seems to be a shortage of them.