The USA has rejected Trump.
The midterm election results are staggeringly good for the Democrats, and terrible for the Republicans.
As I write this, The New York Times is projecting that the Democrats will hold 55 of the 100 seats in the US Senate, with the Republicans becoming the minority party, with 45 seats.
In the House, the forecast is that the Democrats will hold 256 seats, with the Republicans at 178.
In both cases, the Democrats have overturned Republican majorities.
The swing to the Democrats appears to be over 13% of the popular vote.
The rejection of the Republicans is so strong that in Texas they now have a Democrat governor and senator, which is staggering in a state always known as a Republican stronghold, and the more so because the governor is Hispanic.
As astonishing as that is Kansas electing a Democrat senator for the first time in 92 years.
In the Michigan bellwether Senate election, where Abdul El-Sayed is the Democrat candidate who has been the focus of much attention and racist abuse from Donald Trump, it looks very likely that he will win, with an increase in their vote share.
The rejection of Trump is overwhelming.
The reasons for this are, of course, not hard to see. It was Trump's error of judgement that resulted in the war in Iran, and the increase in the cost of living, and in particular the price of road fuel and energy in the USA. People are making it clear how angry they are about that. They know that this conflict was not necessary. They know that Trump promised not to get involved in further wars, and did. They know that they are paying a heavy price for that. Their anger is clear.
Whether it can be said with certainty that the result would have been as clear if Trump had not made this catastrophic strategic mistake, at a cost to the USA and the world at large, is not so apparent, but the underlying disquiet is now clearly real.
Whatever the reason, the message is apparent.
Firstly, the tables have turned on Trump. With majorities in both houses, the Democrats can begin to investigate what they rightly feel to be his misdemeanours.
Secondly, although these majorities do not give the Democrats control over the war with Iran, they do give them significant control over the budget and so significant leverage on that issue.
Thirdly, with clear majorities, they can now pass legislation to reverse the abuses of the last two years. Trump can veto these as President, and has said he will, but in doing so he would lay the pathway for a Democrat president in 2028.
Fourthly, the likelihood of a Democrat clean sweep in 2028 would appear to be very high. The probability of Democrats reversing Republican vote rigging in the meantime also seems to be high.
And the good news is that during the course of the night Donald Trump told the New York Times that he would accept these election results, and so clear are they that it would seem very difficult indeed for him to do anything otherwise.
The USA has had the change of course it needed overnight. But it is important not to get overexcited. The Democrats remain a party dominated by corporate interests, and are profoundly neoliberal. What does matter now is the fight for the heart and soul of that party as the 2028 election looms, because what will be needed then is a presidential candidate willing to put people, not corporate power, first. This did not happen during the Clinton, Obama and Biden years. The coming presidential primary elections are where this battle is going to be fought, and where the chance for real change will be determined.
The Democrats can celebrate, and I can be delighted to see the USA turn it back on fascism, but the battle is not won yet. Whilst corporate money controls US politics, the decline of the country, its economy, and its influence will continue.
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And then there is Israel. Will there be a change in the solid Democrat support for Israel?
In the last 2 days trump has partially pivoted to blaming his upcoming defeat on Israel. The Republican party in 10 years is going to be different to that of today. And so Democrats need to be clear on their actual stance. Rather than hide behind vague statements and go along with what Republicans past and present have decided.
I agree.
There will be a video in the morning.
Israel is no longer a side issue to the US electorate but much more centre-stage, now the costs of unconditional support are hitting voters pockets. I think therefore that even die-hard Israel supporting Democrats will be much more circumspect in their willingness to assist Israel in its warmongering, particularly with Presidential elections only 2 years away.
Might America not be alone in needing to move towards a valid form of democracy?
“Corporate and ultra-wealthy money exerts significant, growing influence over UK politics, driven by structural legal frameworks, high donation levels and opaque lobbying networks. Reports from research groups describe this influence as a form of “structural corruption” where institutions gradually adapt to serve concentrated wealth rather than broad public interest.” (From AI Overview)
The UK Independent reported and summed up the situation the best of all news outlets I have read this morning:
“The talk on a brilliant day yesterday as America went to the polls was would this be a blue puddle, would it be a Democrat blue ripple, or would it be an amazing blue wave. It was none of the above; it was a flipping tsunami. With flipping being the operative word.”
Do not know enough to comment on Israel at this point but REAL help and support is on its way to Ukraine.
🙂
“… REAL help and support is on its way to Ukraine”.
Oh, great. They’ve not even taken their seats and here comes yet another “forever war”!
The existencial need of the US blues, to reverse whatever the reds have done (and vice-versa), regardless of cost, in lives, infrastructure and financial-cost, shall not end any wars; current or future, proxy or hot.
The military industrial complex has already won. Again.
It would be nice to think Trump’s administration will be forced to stop siding with Putin and give Ukraine the military help and assistance it deserves but I have my doubts. It is entirely possible that a furious and increasingly (if that’s possible) deranged Trump will redouble his efforts trying to force Ukraine to accept a Russian ‘peace plan’ aka surrender. It’s even possible he’ll contemplate a nuclear attack on Iran, given his innate inability to accept he’s ever wrong or been bested by anyone else. Or perhaps not, who knows?
The war in Ukraine need not be a forever war, if Putin is forced to accept defeat by a Ukraine properly backed by a united West. The Russians are not invincible, but brutal, incompetent, corrupt, and totally unscrupulous in their exploitation of democracies’ weaknesses.
Can you please create a video that talks about how mmt can work for a country that is a net importer and how foreign trade and exchange rates would work ?
With my naive uneducated thinking, I envisioned that if not a critical mass of economies adopt mmt, the remaining neoliberal economies can cripplingly isolate or punish it by depleting its foreign currency reserves or forcing its currency to severely depreciate, which for a net importer translated to sharp inflation which would fuel unrest and returning “back In line”.
You mean the UK? I have done that. Search the channel.
Like many I was pleased at the rejection of the authoritarian and fascist approach in the US. Would it make the childishness worse? Or, fearing apparent failure, would the narcissist try to claim some credit in restoring the economy before the new Democrats assume office (fairly quick wins on oil and tariffs are possible). I wasn’t overboard in my enthusiasm – but was mildly pleased this morning when I woke to the news (even thought I know there’s a lot wrong with so much of the pseudo centre/left of US politics).
I shared thoughts with a friend – who was much more negative than I was. He pointed out that ‘every American president who has lost power at a mid-term becomes and International Hawk’. We call these alpha males ‘lame ducks’ – they are in their gilded (literally in Trump’s case) cages and they are told they have no power — except they are still Commander in Chief. What do they do – they bomb stuff.
Now, support to Ukraine would be welcome — but these petulant bullies are blaming Iran for the mid-term election. That could make them respond in a way that could even make things worse.
So, I’m even less sanguine about the mid-term outcome now. Hope he’s wrong. But he’s got a point.
I share some of your fears. Markets have been excessively sanguine today.
Perhaps what I read about in Montana is relevant here with respect to comments about money and corporate power during US elections?
The following quote is from https://www.americanprogress.org/press/statement-cap-praises-montana-passage-of-measure-to-undo-effects-of-citizens-united/
“The people of Montana have taken a historic step toward ending the scourge of corporate and dark money in politics. Montana is now the second state after Hawaii to redefine corporate law so that corporations are no longer granted the power to spend in the state’s politics. These pioneering states are setting a bold example for other states to follow suit, sending a powerful message that we don’t have to give corporations unlimited power. The more states that follow this innovative approach, the more we can make Citizens United irrelevant. I am delighted that the Center for American Progress helped spark the campaign that the Transparent Election Initiative carried to victory”
48 to go.
Thank you.