This is the last day of the election campaign.
Tomorrow we vote. My only recommendation is that you do so.
On Friday, unless something extraordinary happens, we will have a new prime minister and government, and five years of Labour Party rule to face.
Simultaneously, the most commonly asked political question that day will be what does an ex-Tory MP do? There will, after all, be almost nothing more to say about Labour than there has been for a long time, which is very little.
There will also be remarkably little to celebrate, unless, perhaps, the Tories really do as badly as some polls predict. This country would be well rid of them, their corrupt politics, their racism, gerrymandering, and failed ideology, forever. Maybe, just maybe, the end of their road might be in sight on Friday. Anything less than 100 seats and that is likely.
If Reform fail to get more than a seat or two that would also be good.
Locally, I will be delighted if my vote helps secure the political demise of Lucy Fraser. A dismal MP, and even worse minister, seeing her lose would definitely be good news as far as I am concerned .
The trouble is, to achieve this goal I will vote LibDem, and like millions of people in this country tomorrow, I will do so not out of conviction but because, pragmatically, I wish to be rid of the current MP and all that she stands for.
What is worth recalling this week (and further the next five years) is that even if Keir Starmer gets a landslide victory, he is likely to secure less support in this election than Jeremy Corbyn managed in his campaigns.
Starmer will also enter Downing Street as the least popular new prime minister ever.
It could, quite reasonably be argued that he will take office without a mandate, so weak is the support for him, his party, and its very apparent desire to do almost nothing for the people of this country.
In that context, it is worth noting that during the campaign it has been obvious that the only parties with real ideas have been the nationalist in Scotland and Wales, the Greens in England and Wales, and maybe (and I emphasise that word) the LibDems, who have at least been more honest than the Tories and Labour, although that is setting a very low bar.
The good news is that there are political ideas on the agenda from smaller parties. In the right place I would undoubtedly support them, making clear that choice would be locationally determined.
The bad news is the majority of the population who choose to vote will still put their cross against the name of a party intent on harming the well-being of the people of this country whilst almost wholly ignoring the need to tackle global heating.
That said, the proportion doing so is likely to be the smallest ever . Some hope has to be taken from that.
One other encouraging outcome of this dismal campaign is that it is likely that every single political party in Parliament will, after this election, believe in proportional representation. If the Tory result is as badly as I expect, their conversion to the cause is almost inevitable. And we should not forget that the Labour Party's membership overwhelmingly passed a resolution in favour of PR at a recent conference. It is only the party leadership, and Keir Starmer in particular, who held out against it.
Perversely, Keir Starmer will become Prime Minister as the ultimate anti-democrat, and the person most profoundly dedicated to governing contrary to the will of the people of this country.
On that depressing thought, the speculation is coming to an end. The opposition to the dire consequences of the neoliberal domination of UK politics that has harmed the people of the four nations that make up that existing country, and which has shackled them to it, has not though. That will go on.
Labour will offer something very little different to that which the Tories did. Things will not get better as a result. But they could, and that will remain the aim.
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Change but little hope with the majority of the nation voting for failed dogma sums it up!
I’m going to make a testable prediction. These are 23 Labour MPs and their % vote at the last general election
Diane Abbott 70.3
Rushanara Ali 72.7
Richard Burgon 49.8
Dawn Butler 64.7
Sarah Champion 41.3
Neil Coyle 54.1
Clive Efford 47
Louise Haigh 50.3
Rupa Huq 51.3
Imran Hussain 63
David Lammy 76
Clive Lewis 53.7
Rebecca Long-Bailey 56.8
John McDonnell 55.8
Grahame Morris 45.5
Chi Onwurah 57.6
Kate Osamor 65
Tulip Siddiq 48.9
Cat Smith 46.8
Gareth Thomas 52.4
Emily Thornberry 56.3
Jon Trickett 37.5
Catherine West 57.5
Average 55.4. What they have in common is they all voted to put Corbyn on the ballot for Labour leadership in 2015 and are standing tomorrow to be MPs in the same constituencies or nearest match following boundary adjustments.
There will be a national swing to Labour, but if the % swing to the Corbynistas is greater than that it could tell us something about just how popular socialism is in the UK.
The total turnout in 2019 was 67.3% of a total registered electorate of 47,567,752
It will be interesting to see how 2024 compares.
The bar for comparison with JC’s performance is really set at 10,269,051 votes as that is what Labour managed in 2019.
Of course, the 2017 HWM for Corbyn was 12,877,918, before the anti-Corbyn campaign got into gear, both internally and externally.
I bet (if I bet, that is) that Starmer falls short….
I bet (if I bet, hat is) that Starmer falls short….
I’ll make a prediction – it depends on what you mean by “socialism” – do tell us Ozzy
If you think your Lucy Foster is poor, try our Miriam (conversion therapy) Cates for size. Her expected defeat will indeed be good riddance of bad – and dangerous – rubbish.
Agreed
Relatively I am well off
But that is really not much comfort
I have already voted, a postal vote, and like you, I did not vote for something that I am politically aligned with, but I voted to get rid of something.
I voted Labour, because in my constituency they have the best chance of beating the Tory, in a seat that has traditionally been what I would call a safe FPTP “gravy train” seat for them.
I’ve had enough of wasted votes, and at this election, the tactical vote is a legitimate weapon to end the Tory menace.
And I know all the limitations of Starmer, and what is on offer, but I am going to take what the system is offering me, a chance for real change, and that is not the election of a Labour Govt with an undemocratic FPTP super majority, it is what happens elsewhere.
Imagine what will happen if on Friday morning we wake up and the Lib Dems are the official opposition. Not the Tories, but the Lib Dems. I believe that changes the game.
1) It means the Lib Dems will get the bulk of parliamentary time as the official opposition.
2) The media will have to respect that and give the Lib Dems the time that the Tories now get. The Tories, in third place, should get what the Lib Dems are getting now-very little coverage. Now, I know that there is the problem of the Tory press, and Tory mainstream media. So, the ultimate answer there is media reform. That is a different issue, but a very important one. We could start by ending foreign ownership of UK political media.
3) This is the most important point. If the Lib Dems are the official opposition, for the first time in history, one of the two major parties in Parliament will have as their policy, PR. It will be on the agenda. Those in Labour that support it, and there are many, will have the official opposition supporting them. I know from day one of a Labour Government, there are many in Labour who will be working for electoral reform. You don’t get that with the Tories.
So, I would say to anyone who is in a seat where the LibDems are best positioned to beat the Tory, the tactical vote is the best choice if you want real change at some point in the future. In those seats, if I traditionally voted Labour or Green, I’d vote Lib Dem. Get the Tory out.
If we had PR now, and the policies of all the parties were the same, I’d vote Green, knowing that my vote would count. We don’t have PR, and the Greens may win 1 to 3 FPTP seats, while getting 5-8% of the vote. It benefits the Greens long term, if the Lib Dems are the official opposition on Friday.
To find out who can beat the Tory.
https://stopthetories.vote/
Once the election is over, and if my constituency returns a Labour MP, I plan to email him telling him the exact reasons why I lent him my vote. I will make it clear that he got a tactical vote, which could easily be lost next time if all Labour deliver is Tory lite. I suggest that everyone who votes tactically does the same. Email the new MP, let them know that the support has nothing to do with Labour policies, it was to get rid of the Tories, and that they need to be different.
And I will also mention PR. I will try to find out where the new MP stands on the issue.
So, despite all the neoliberal doom and gloom talk, I do think that if the progressive vote takes the right option on Thursday, there is the chance to put in motion steps to real change.
I really believe that as long as we have FPTP, nothing much will change. Ultimately, the Tories get back in, and resume their destructive ways. Tomorrow, we can do something to make that less likely, even if it means a Starmer undemocratic super majority.
Thanks
And an LD opposition is certainly possible
Where I live Labour is the tactical vote recommended by stopthetories.vote. However, given Starmer’s stance on Gaza, I can’t bring myself to vote for them. I shall be voting Green.
I’ve had my first postal vote, posted last week. Lib dems, I’m in Ed’s area so two Ed’s are better than one as we say to each other when we bump into each other .
After fourteen years of Tory failure and misery , Thatcher privatised water companies polluting our waterways for the last forty years, the sewage party. Good riddance. Here’s to liberation.
I think it will be a rocky ride for Sir Keir! Massive majorities lead to rebellion in the ranks, and quite possibly on the front benches. I wonder whether there will be party indiscipline quite soon into the next government’s term. If their majority is very large, it reduces the possibility of proper and constructive opposition in Parliament from the benches on the other side; with the absence of PR that is constitutionally bad. I fear that the intercession in the 17th century language of its day in the Book of Common Prayer, ‘… that we may be godly and quietly governed’ may be a stretch.
I like that
And I hope you are right – but this lot have been chosen to be quiet
The anticipated result will be spun as a Labour winning by a landslide, but it would be more accurate to say it is the Tories sinking into the quicksand, quicksand of their own making. The Tories richly deserve to lose but the extent of Labour’s win will be more an artifact of our corrupt voting system, Labour being the next most favoured party, than any enthusiasm for Labour and its policies. These policies are largely unknown, but where they are known are hardly distinguishable from Tory policies and where they can be reasonably guessed seem designed to deliver a short term win but a long term disaster.
I look forward to the end of this campaign, which has been the most boring and predictable I can remember since 1964. I do not look forward to the deluge that will follow, especially as I have seen much of it before. Remember that Farage will have 5 years to court the disaffected naturally Tory voting voters who will have given Labour their unprecedented majority and if, or maybe when, Labour fails he will be their knight in shining armour riding in to save the day.
I have the luxury of choice as I live in a north east constituency which, even with the boundary changes will return a Labour MP. She has a 5,500 odd majority over the Conservatives in 2019, the Brexit party came third. So I postal-voted Green with a clear conscience.
The reality is that the Labour party can win a huge number of seats but with a reduced majority in every one that they hold. I do so hope that will happen.
If Labour get 400 plus MPs than half the parliamentary party will be new MPs (a few having been MPs before)
They will know that many of them will not be returned next time and most will not be given office.
I suspect that there will be a lot of resistance to further privatisation of the NHS, PFI deals and subservience to the City.
They will have nothing to lose.
Some posted about West German MPs having to vote with their conscience. And in theory, Members are independent but choose to take the whip.
Things could rapidly because ‘interesting’.
They will be whipped into line
They will all hope to survive, and will be foolish enough to believe that they can
Agreed! Given that foolishness seems to be the chief qualification for being a candidate for either of the main two parties.
quite probably, Richard, but as Supermac -Harold MacMillan-observed ‘events, dear boy, events.’
Only three years ago some were saying-what do they -the Tories-have to do before people stop voting for them?’
The Liberals said that in 1922…
BECOME interesting
There are a number of independent candidates who Labour treated particularly badly, that I am hoping will beat Labour at the polls tomorrow.
Most of all, I hope Starmer loses his seat.
I would like to see Starmer lose his seat too. Not merely because he will be eliminated from UK politics until he worms his way back in, as he will, but also because, given his stance on Gaza, losing to Feinstein would be deeply symbolic.
As you and many others have said Labour will do very little in power so I give them 2 years before the electorate starts to lose patience. Then you’ll see Labour turning right as they scramble to out do the Tories. So after this election groups like yours and those parties who want to see real change should get together to form a new movement.
Two years?
It may be less…
Turning right? How can they get further right without becoming Reform?
According to todays Ipsos MRP poll for Ely and East Cambridgeshire
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/general-election-2024-ipsos-poll-reuslts-for-cambridge-peterborough-and-other-cambridgeshire-areas/ar-BB1ov2AW
you are more likely to get rid of your Tory (34%) by voting Labour (29%) rather than than LibDem (19% ) .
(They are suggesting 11% for Reform.)
Tricky decision Richard?
No one around here believes that
They have not a single council seat
The LDs are very close in council terms. That poll is, I think, very wrong. And, traditionally this is a Liberal seat.
It’s certainly been a peculiar election Richard, of that there’s no doubt. Hopeful, in seeing these appalling tories gone, fairly hopeless in what will succeed them. There’s certainly little enthusiasm visible away from the online sphere. I’ve seen more England flags than party posters. A smattering of LD’s and Labour and one for the tories, on a field owned by my partner’s very wealthy landlords. Although, amusingly, that’s now disappeared!
What we can hope for is, as MarP says, that they’ll be pushed into 3rd place by the LD’s by massive tactical voting , Reform splitting the vote, and their general unpopularity.
And that Reform get no, or very few seats. And the Greens get as many seats as possible. And perhaps the influence of independents hacked off with labour will reduce the labour majority.
Personally, I couldn’t bring myself to vote tactically for labour as advised by the tactical voting websites, we put in our green votes by post a week ago. I was up for a vote swap arrangement arranged by Compass where I would in effect have been voting fot the Greens in a constituency they are seriuosly competing for, and voting labour here as an anti tory vote, but it fell through.
TBH, if labour can’t take this seat now when everything has gone wrong for the tories, they never will. So I don’t think our 2 votes were needed anyway. We shall see.
My attitude is that Labour are going to win by a landslide anyway, so why would I give them a vote they don’t need when there is a perfectly good Green candidate I can vote for?