I have published this video this morning. In it, I argue that Trump might win the US presidency again. It might be the biggest shock to the world order in the lifetime of most people now on the planet.
The audio version of this video is here:
The transcript is:
What happens if Trump wins the US election and becomes president of the United States again?
It scares me rigid to think about that possibility.
I found it almost absurd that he won in 2016, and his four years in office were a disaster: a disaster for ordinary people, a disaster for the state of the US economy, a disaster for the state of US debt, because he gave so much money to the rich at cost to borrowing from markets.
And now it's going to be so much worse.
Trump arrived in office in 2016 wholly unprepared for the fact he was going to be president and relying on a range of supporters who were, well, crazy is the nicest possible description.
But this time he's arriving in office with the support of, well, people who are crazy but a lot more competent about their craziness.
There are around 25 far-right wing think tanks in the States, led by the Heritage Foundation - with whom I have crossed swords over many years on tax haven issues, because they support them and I never have - and they are leading the campaign for Trump and deciding how he will run the presidency from 2025 onwards.
Project 2025 is deeply ominous.
It is about US isolation in the world.
It's about backing away from Ukraine, supporting Israel more than ever, backing away from Europe, backing away from NATO, backing away from any international responsibility to maintain a stable international economic order, backing away from tax deals, which might make sure that international corporations are taxed fairly, and attacking China.
Attacking other countries too, including the whole of Europe on economic issues through tariff wars, creating instability, and of course, domestically, attacking every minority in the USA: attacking women and their rights, including that to abortion, attacking migrants and threatening that they will be sent out of the country. 11 million are supposedly at threat, with the army supposedly being deployed to deliver this, and the U. S. Army is never deployed domestically.
This is a clear fascist agenda. Fascism is all about the idea that a strong man, which is what Trump thinks he is, who will lead the country against an imagined “other” - the “other” being migrants and frankly, everyone outside the USA, to deliver salvation for the people of that country.
Although, in practice, the only people who will gain will be the ultra-wealthy, and they, of course, are the people in whose interest Trump is really acting.
So, we face an absolute disaster. If Trump is to win that will have massive implications for the world at large and it will create economic instability in the UK.
What do we do about it? There's nothing we can do about it. But we can pray that the Democrats might look very hard at themselves and ask the question whether Biden is really good enough to take on this man? And should they change tack even now and back somebody who has a chance of holding fascism at bay in the USA? Because that is literally what we're looking at.
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You’re asking the wrong question. Whilst I too would have preferred a younger candidate, we are where we are. Biden seems competent, and he’s certainly surrounded by very competent people. Surely you of all people, Richard, should be advocating voting for policies not personalities.
Biden is obviously suffering serious mental decline
I really don’t think this is about personality
It will be about competence soon, if not already
” And should they change tack even now and back somebody who has a chance of holding fascism at bay in the USA? Because that is literally what we’re looking at.”
There is no other candidate willing to run and take on Trump which is basically the same thing.
Also, there has been no major swing in the poles with regards to voting (not what one thinks of a particular candidate). There was no major swing after Trump was convicted on 24 counts and no major swing after Biden’s debate performance with regards to voting. The election is not until 5 November 2024 and much can happen between now and November.
I note that…..
I fear he will be president even if he loses the election. Next year they will have learned from the past failed attempt to overturn the result. It could get grisley.
As for Biden, that could have been just a bad night. Unlikely but it’s possible. There is still a chance that the Democrats could get someone else in before he is confirmed as their candidate, but that could be as much of a risk as letting Biden stand.
It is worrying.
“but that could be as much of a risk as letting Biden stand.”
Yes it would.
Biden has to be on top of the game for four more years. I don’t think he can.
If he goes now, some dignity can be rescued. Better than failing and being forced out in the next four years.
He chose a Vice-President whose views I agree with and she seems competent. But part of the reason for her selection, like most Vice-Presidents, is to pitch at the vote which wouldn’t go the Presidential candidate. Thus Kennedy, a liberal New Englander chose Johnson who was a Southern Democrat. Biden pitched chose a woman of colour. I suspect not enough Americans are ready to vote for someone of that background. Maybe in a few years.
In a parliamentary system, it would be an easier task. Even Margaret Thatcher was removed. But in 1974 senior Republicans told Nixon his time was up. The Democrats need to realise it is not just about their party, or even the US but their responsibilities to the wider world.
I don’t think Biden will be forced out if he wins the election. If he becomes unable to cope with being president, it is much more likely he will become a mere figurehead with the actual power being wealded by other senior Democrats.
I don’t disagree at all with your assessment of how terrible it will be if Trump wins in November but I’d strong suggest that you and all your followers watch this piece of rational analysis from MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell, one of the foremost commentators on US politics.
https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/lawrence-we-live-in-a-country-where-most-commentators-declared-the-liar-the-debate-winner-213936197668
Thanks
Worth watching
I can believe Trump is so ignorant about tariffs but his top team will know that is just nonsense. Yet they are not calling it out. If they do tell him, he is ignoring it. The whole movement behind him are corrupt. Trump will go at some point. What about the movement? IMHO Trump is more of a symptom than the disease afflicting America.
To slightly misquote Einstein:
Only two things are infinite, the universe and the extent of Trump’s ignorance, and I’m not sure about the universe.
I suggest that the next amendment to the US Constitution needs to be an age limit for the president at the start of their first term in office.
I suggest 60
65 might be fairer
In this opinion piece in the Guardian Robert Reiche reflects on the difficulties of replacing Biden
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/30/should-democrats-replace-biden
It seems to me, that every argument ‘against’ replacing Biden, is an argument ‘for’. The longer the delay, the more difficult it will be for any potential replacement to find their feet, the harder it will be for the Democratic Party machinery to change gears, and the more likely Biden will deteriorate further. We are in damage-limitation territory here. There is no time for delay.
Doing medical diagnoses over tv isn’t without its problems. Various US medical experts have given their opinion, recognising the difficulty of doing so without administering actual tests, and while several have said Trump shows signs of dementia, or at least serious cognitive impairment, those that I’ve read suggest that Biden’s apparent decline is nothing out of the ordinary for a person of his age.
One would hope that Biden has a team around him who will exercise “a duty of care” (like a power of attorney). Trump on the other hand …..
Bonnie Greer writing in Byline Times thinks Biden will handover to Harris sometime during his presidency.
Here’s one such neurological discussion https://www.msn.com/en-ca/health/other/neuroscientist-explains-how-trump-and-bidens-cognitive-impairments-are-different-opinion/ar-BB1ojUpS
Did the last sentence of the transcript sneak in by mistake?
Yes, that was an editing request!
Sorry