This looks to me like a disaster foretold. It is the result of a large opinion poll for the Telegraph, published yesterday:
Why might this outcome be a disaster?
Because there is no evidence that Labour is competent to govern.
In contrast there is a great deal of evidence that it will be at least as bad as the Tories. It is as dedicated to neoliberal austerity as they are, and as for ideas, it appears to have none
But there is more to this than that.
Where will the Opposition be in a parliament like this?
How will scrutiny of government legislation happen - except in the Lords?
How, even, can the House of Commons committee system operate with so few MPs?
Democracy depends upon accountability, opposition and the reconciliation of differing ideas. That will be absent in a parliament with a result such as this.
In itself that paves the way, when Labour fails, as it inevitably will given its current plans, for fascism.
And yes, I do so the forthcoming Labiur government crashing and then burning just as Boris Johnson's did.
I am very, very worried about the risk to democracy, effective government and the need for alternative opinion in this country if an outcome like this were to happen.
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The Telegraph’s pollsters don’t seem to care what happens in Northern Ireland – haven’t even included them in “other”.
Undoubtedly Labour and the LibDems will pick up many seats, and the Conservatives lose many. I still think enough “shy Tories” will emerge to make the meltdown less severe than the polling suggests. And do we think it is realistic that the SNP will lose 42 seats?
Andrew asks “…do we think it is realistic that the SNP will lose 42 seats?” The answer is a definite ‘no’: this is the Telegraph’s knowledge-free wish-list of Scottish votes. Half of the front page of its Scotland edition today was taken up with a map showing SNP seats in only a small area of Highland Scotland. The rest was awash with red and blue. Which poll do they base their conclusions on? Clearly not ones that know that c55% of the Scottish electorate want Independence, and, given that, why would they vote Tory or Labour, who both wish to wind down devolution and centralise power in their hands in Westminster?
The political oscillations – seem to be increasing. First the Tories fronted by a liar, now LINO fronted by a liar. I’m not using the word liar subjectively – it is objectivce – all the evidence is there to see. However, the media seem to be happy, as per, to ignore these realities, ditto the great & good – this in the letter in the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/19/labour-is-offering-a-credible-plan-to-address-britains-economic-problems
On reading it I burst out laughing whilst thinking that little by little Mazzucato is eroding her reputation (The Big Con – a recent book was packed to the rafters with errors of fact – she does need to employ a better class of intern!). Moving back to the core point, HoC packed with a select crew of Starmerites & the population with no means to express their unhappiness. One wonders when (not if) an articulate and credible person emerges to rally the masses and lead them to the promised land (it would be preferable if they did not btw). On a related note, if this does happen, Hayek will be able to say: see told you, socilaism does lead to fascism.
The opposition is going to come mainly from Labour’s own back benches. Starmer knows that, which is why he has been at great pains to deselect as many left-wingers as possible.
It appeared yesterday that the socialist independents are adopting the umbrella ‘The Collective’. While this may be a coalescing point for a new party, as my wife exclaimed “why the hell couldn’t they do this months ago?”
This is Labour in name only, most of the socialists have been sidelined or deselected.They have tailored themselves to be palatable to businesses and disgruntled Tory voters. My only hope is that enough Scottish people see through them to stop the election of them to the Scottish Parliament. Their history in Scottish government is worse than the Tories. Thanks.