2024 begins. I am, at last, Covid-free. However, having had it over the whole holiday period, I feel in need of a break. I will be taking it quietly this week: I am hoping to avoid the curse of long-Covid, which lasted for eight months last time and think it is worth taking it easy for a few days to assist that goal.
Saying that, this is going to be a busy year.
On this blog, the fact that we will have an election campaign running for some time from now on guarantees that. Labour saying something about what it intends might help that campaign build constructively. I am not, however, expecting any such thing to happen. I think Starmer is too frightened to say anything about his plans and is instead wholly dependent on Sunak losing rather than Labour winning the contest to come. It's a pathetic spectacle and indicates an extraordinary aversion to ideas and accountability. I would love to be wrong, but if I am not, will keep saying so.
The need for new ideas remains a priority. Reading the FT annual survey of economists this morning this morning serval things stood out:
- Climate hardly got a mention, except for my Green New Deal colleague Andrew Simms, and Lydia Prieg from the New Economics Foundation. That was staggering and deeply worrying.
- The gloom is nearly universal. Growth is not going to happen. Living standards will have fallen during this parliament, which is unprecedented. And few see much prospect for change but for those on the lowest pay and pensioners. Those with mortgages are universally accepted as being sacrificed on the altar of the Bank of England. Many think it is being overly aggressive with its policies. Almost all agree it is the cause of recession.
- There is a massive need for new state investment, more even than private investment - and there is a shortage of that as well. Few seem to have any idea about how that will be delivered, but some mention tax increases on wealth and maybe land. None talk about turning savings into the national capital that we need to rebuild the economy. It's as if the entire economics profession has completely forgotten that there is any link at all between savings and investment.
- There is a longing for some political stability that the Tories have so dismally failed to supply but only Andrew Simms mentioned electoral reform. It's as if economics exists in a world entirely distinct distinct from the world of politics according to most of the respondents - almost none of whom seem able to connect the real world and the economy. It's as if they think political economy does not exist. No wonder we're in a mess.
- Only a few respondents mentioned the idea that there might be a strategy to challenge our weaknesses. There seems to be little awareness of the role of government in making choices for our collective benefit amongst those 90-odd economists questioned. Without realising it, they reveal their belief that markets will decide when what they document is market failure to do so.
I would love to write a book called 'The Plan' explaining what is required. This would, in summary, be an attack on fiscal rules and would stress instead the need for investment plans because that is what we so obviously require. I have no idea if I will have time to do so. There is also the problem that publishers take forever to get books out.
Finishing the Taxing Wealth Report has a higher immediate priority. That is work for January. It might still happen. There is a lot in progress, but my intention to do some work on this last week disappeared with Covid.
Then there is other work. I have four academic papers in some stage of completion at present, from one being subject to revisions right now, to two in early drafts and one in between, getting close to submission. Getting some of them out would be good.
Perhaps more important for me, academically, is the Accounting Streams project on reforming accounting education in universities. I did not expect this to creep onto my agenda last summer - but it did and now it has I am committed to it. There will be a lot to do on it - including contributions to at least one textbook with more to follow.
In summary - 2024 is going to be a year where I have to write a great many words, which is exactly what I would choose for any year.
But first of all, I need to get fit again, and am not there yet. If anyone tells you Covid is like a cold, politely tell them to stop being stupid. It is not, which does beg the question as to why a) I was given a vaccine last September that the government knew was out of date and ineffective and b) they are ignoring all World Health Organisation warnings on Covid now. We are living in a pandemic and are pretending otherwise, which just about summarises the entire problem that we face when it comes to tackling politics at present. Reality has ceased to inform political thinking. Only dogma does. As a result, improvements in well-being do not matter to our politicians; only dogmatic point scoring does. No wonder we're far up the creek without a paddle.
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Glad you are on the mend and that you plan to take it a bit easy.
As for your analysis, can I add that, not only are we up the creek without a paddle, the idiots reject all the paddles that you offer them! Keep up the good work; you offer us hope that things could change.
Thanks
Starmer’s failure is not just Starmer’s failure. The poor understanding of the financing of the British Government by the electorate (a function of a blind spot in education – probably because it is ‘political’), and the public exploitation of this weakness by Governments, Treasury and even the BoE is after all central to your monumental efforts here to explore and reveal the core issues. The fact that the purposes of the Commissioners for the Reduction of the National Debt are still paramount in politics and even for our Central Bank (an 18th century obsession grounded in part in the catastrophic long term fallout caused by an absurd attempt to privatise the national debt – by an early 18th century Tory Government) eloquently makes the case.
…..”the need for (Govt) investment plans”….. The ‘challenge’ is that the Govt seems uncertain exactly what to invest in to grow the economy. We missed the electronics, computing, solar, wind & software opportunities and despite efforts around aerospace, AI , nuclear, new materials, medicine & gaming seem to be struggling to find high value-adding profitable niches. The economic ‘gaps’ that I see as an employer are in vocational, engineering & technical skills.
We have produced (thank you Tony Blair) thousands of students heavily in debt with 5th rate degrees of little value in the workplace.
As 80% of student loans are not repaid, it would be more sensible to spend this money on improving vocational training to produce generations skilled to work on a Green & Sustainable Revolution.
“Up the creek without a paddle”: there was a Guardian report [PA Media 31 Dec 2023.]: “Britain ‘considering airstrikes’ on Houthi rebels after Red Sea attacks. Defence secretary says UK would not hesitate to take ‘direct action’ after US sank boats targeting a container ship. ”
Huge numbers of British people believe that first, Israeli forces are committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza. Second, the Palestinians have been wronged by the Israeli settlers much more seriously than the other way round.
On May 14, 1948, the State of Israel was created on land that had been settled by Palestinians for generations. Neighbouring Arab states were outraged at the injustice of it. Arms were provided to the Zionist settlers by Britain and the USA, sparking the first Arab-Israeli War. Israel ‘won’, but 750,000 Palestinians were displaced. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/israeli-palestinian-conflict.
The last time that British forces got involved was in 1956, when the British, French and Israeli governments colluded to invade Egypt.
https://users.ox.ac.uk/~ssfc0005/The%20Protocol%20of%20Sevres%201956%20Anatomy%20of%20a%20War%20Plot.html. American President Eisenhower, however, “strongly opposed the military plan”. While the Israelis occupied the Egyptian territory of Sinai, the British and French invaders were humiliated. Prime Minister, Sir Anthony Eden, resigned. [I was 16 at the time and remember the deceit – the shame of it.]
In the last 70 or 80 years, Palestinians have been repeatedly attacked and driven from their homes. Prime Minister Netanyahu and others claim biblical authority for their ruthlessness and cruelty. I wish they would give attention to words of Moses:
Thou shalt not covet – thy neighbours’ land, thy neighbours’ crops, they neighbours’ water resources – or anything that is thy neighbours’ . Thou shalt not steal. Thou shalt not kill. Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbour.
It would, be morally wrong for the British government to get involved in extending the on-going Israeli genocide of Palestinian people by attacking Houtis.
Possible consequences of attacking the Houtis: World War 3 – with Britain widely considered to be on the ‘wrong’ (aggressive) side; climate catastrophe brought forward and accelerated; because of their genocidal behaviour, the Israelis will he hated by Arabs for a generation or two.
Nothing can now prevent that, but an attack on the Houtis might make the British similarly hated – and unsafe.
Extra short-term profits for the military-industrial complex. “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.” Farewell address by President Eisenhower (1961).
I remarked on Guardian CiF yesterday that we have had little opportunity to comment on the war in Gaza-and found the comment removed for not meeting standards.
Netanyahu is saying the war could go on for weeks and the humanitarian situation is beyond crisis already. Our party leaders say nothing. There is the old saying ‘silence implies consent’. IMO the West is throwing away whatever moral authority it has in the wider world.
Early in the conflict I went on the website of the Royal United Services Institute to find one analyst saying ‘not even Israeli generals believe they can eliminate Hamas.’ I am sure he is right. The Israelis have inflicted destitution, traumatisation, humiliation and casualties -which per capita are higher than the US experienced in WW2. They have are recruiting the next generation of enemies.
If the US decide not to back them -it pulled out of Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq-they will be on their own. And I would acknowledge many Israelis deplore Netanyahu’s polices.
It seems they are going for total eviction to me
Pople I know in the UN seem to think that is the case
Anne Pettifor is touching on some similar themes today https://annpettifor.substack.com/p/will-the-global-economic-system-be?publication_id=259111&post_id=139946314&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=cmfwm
Enjoy having a rest Richard it is well earned
Have you considered self publishing?
Maybe…
Please can you say more about this:
a) I was given a vaccine last September that the government knew was out of date and ineffective
Those who got the vaccine first were given out of date Pfizer vaccines that suited old versions of the virus. The government knew that. It is now well documented that this was the case.
When I had covid and ended up in hospital for three weeks on oxygen I had had two vaccinations. The women on the ward who died of covid had not had any vaccinations.
Surely it’s better to have vaccinations than no vaccinations.
We both know where we caught covid, but I believe the doctors who told me that if I hadn’t been vaccinated I would have died.
I prefer to be positive about vaccinations.
I am nit saying it did it help.
I am saying that the government knowingly gave me a suboptimal vaccine when a better one was available.
So glad that your health improves, doubtless with expert support!
To what extent do you reckon the current negativism is the responsibility of the mainstream media, including the B. B.C.?
Which power groups do you think are influencing/controlling the mainstream media?
Big, far-right money via the Mail, GB News, etc
Richard, take care of yourself, please!
Choose one of your projects (the one you have most joy in contemplating) and concentrate on that. Others can deal with the remainder.
There is only one Richard Murphy, and we want him to remain with us!
I can never work on one project at once.
I did quite a lot of railway modelling over Christmas (joining Rod Stewart and Jools Holland in the activity, although they don’t know that) and was working on up to 4 projects simultaneously – because that weary I do more.
Please take some time for yourself Richard. You are a valued source of political and economic analysis for many like me, but health is key.
I am increasingly aware that my health is key to working for as long as possible
Get on a bike, or get down to a gym and get on a rowing machine or cycling machine is my advice and just start slowly – 20 minutes a day.
A good brain needs a good blood supply you will find.
Glad that you are on the road to recovery.
The best exercise is walking – by far. Bikes and rowing are not as good for overall well being so I will be walking and stretching – both essential when n8in your 60s and beyond.
I am taking it seriously. I got back top 3k yesterday – which is my usual daily minimum.
A mix of walking & t’ai chi keeps me going, with a bit of gentle resistance work (“press ups” against a wall, and squats).
But for the t’ai chi you need the right teacher, & I’ve been lucky.
Had you thought of talking to Byline Times about publishing a book? Although they’re busy trying to extend into the US atm, they might be interested, and they’re a bit more nimble than the average publisher.
I like that idea
I suppose it is a case of each to their own.
I walk a lot myself and the gym I go to at my local rugby club is in a beautiful rural location surrounded by green hills.
I’ve found from my early 50’s that rowing has increased my upper body strength and is a good cardiac work out for coping with stress at work. The cycling is good too for leg strength and maintaining musculature around aging joints. The key is not to over-do it – get the pulse racing a little, get the blood moving around.
But these activities are also a good to time to think – to use the brain. I’ve seen quite a few cases of vascular dementia amongst family and friends. The old saying ‘use it or lose it’ is quite apt.
I find walking does that for me
Enough walking + exercises to practice mobility and basic core strength are key. For example, more than 50% of people over 55 in the U.K. cannot get up from a dining style chair without using their arms. Being able to do so is a really good indicator of survival rates.
Gosh – 50% of over 55’s can’t get up from a dining table without using their arms?
Thanks for sharing that – that is not me and now more than ever I will keep doing what I’ve been doing to try to make sure it won’t be.
The world full of uncertainty and economists as a whole seem especially poor at predictions about the world (….the markets) in which they are emerged and dependant. The financial world seeks certainty and the economist can be paid well to provide some. Models are necessarily limited and the world infinitely complex.
It was intriguing to learn that The Economist named Greece as the it country of the year 2023 (which economists saw that coming?) and this last year the USA has challenged the long-time economic model linking interest rates with inflation and the idea that defeating high inflation would require sharply higher unemployment.
https://greekcitytimes.com/2023/12/21/mitsotakis-the-economist-year/
I’ve heard Labour will spend some of their green ‘investment’ subsidising people to green their drives.
It seems that many individuals and even councils who are fanatical about there being a climate emergency and more must be done are not yet being serious and doing this or pushing this themselves. Therefore they need a financial push.
Where did you hear that from? A news outlet that dislikes labour?
You can’t come out with a statement like that and not give a source.
Slight rewording of your concise sentence together with an item in today’s Guardian tells us I think that dogma’s driver is moral rot in the chief institution of the country – Parliament.
“Reality and its consequences has ceased to inform political thinking. Only dogma does. As a result, improvements in well-being do not matter to our politicians; only dogmatic point scoring does. No wonder we’re far up the creek without a paddle.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/02/champagne-worth-90000-bought-in-house-of-lords-last-year-foi-data-shows
£90,000 on champagne?
I don’t even like the stuff
Argument for Job Guarantee now linked to nebulous argument for central banks to use NAIRU (Natural Rate of Unemployment) to jack up interest rates.
https://njfac.org/index.php/2023/12/22/review-of-the-case-for-a-job-guarantee-by-pavlina-r-tcherneva-polity-press-2020/
Sorting the wood from the chaff clearly an important matter here!
Might it be that our citizenry is being “gaslit” by prominent politicians and orthodox economists in conjunction with the main stream media?
Yes
My local authority starts the year warning the Government that its finances are dire yet is still losing 2 homes a month to Right To Buy (24 homes a year lost to the market).
We are purchasing/completing only 78 new homes this year. Those 24 we are losing per year mean it eats into our surplus in the Housing Revenue Account which we should be using to reinvest and build or buy, not prop up service levels and jobs.
You don’t have to be Einstein to see where this going and the cynical logic of the design of Tory defunding that has been rampant since 2010.
We need relief from austerity and relief from the purposeful destruction of our public services. I don’t see any on the horizon at all.
……………”losing 2 homes a month to Right To Buy (24 homes a year lost…….”
They are not ‘lost’, surely they are still homes with people living in them ?
I wonder if Starmer (assuming he actually wins GE) will actually build 300,000 new affordable homes a year & where the money to buy land/construction costs etc will come from?
But they are no longer available as social housing, are they?
‘Reality has ceased to inform political thinking. Only dogma does.’
Very much so Richard.
But there is a lively opposition to the post Reagan/Thatcher consensus . Students demanding different economics courses and a phalanx of economic thinking – Pettifor, Murphy, Sikka, Blanchflower,Raworth,Mazzucato, Mellor. Varoufakis, Sissoko , Stiglizt, Krugman, Piketty etc etc – while not agreeing on everything – showing much of whats wrong with current conventional wisdom .
It may need such a phalanx of alternative thinkers to get politicians to understand they are up the creek without a paddle – and to save them from themselves.
So we keep on going on…..
Subcontract some of your obligations.
Save yourself for the most important.