I have reviewed the last year, both from the perspective of this blog and from that of the political economy. But what of 2021? Knowing that 2020 proved how foolhardy any form of production might be, what do I think 2021 might deliver?
The truth is, of course, that I do not know. What precisely will pan out cannot be known, but some over-arching narratives can be foretold, and that is what interests me. So let me get the obvious likelihoods out of the way and then consider the consequences.
First, there is Covid. It is here to stay for some time. Indeed, it is going to get a lot worse before anything gets better. And right now the government still seems intent on creating a disaster. A great many people are going to die unnecessarily as a result. The NHS will be stretched to its limits. Vaccines will only have a limited impact for some time. I strongly suspect that we will still have restrictions on behaviour in place when 2021 comes to a close. Whether that is because transmissibility still exists, or because anti-vaxers refuse to participate in immunisation programmes, or because of new variants, makes little difference; there will still be restrictions. Let's get used to it now and brace ourselves for the losses to come.
Brace ourselves too for NHS failure - through no fault of those involved but because of failure of leadership now and over the last decade.
And at the same time, those expecting economic recovery in 2021 should, I believe, think again. People living in jeopardy (and that is what 2021 is going to feel like) do not spend. Their ‘animal spirits' will be subdued, and the economy with them. Past evidence suggests that this will be the case for some time to come. In which case expect more job losses, more corporate failures, and more distress. What 2020 taught was that a summer relaxation of measures was a big mistake. I hope the same mistake will not be made again in 2021, and I know the price of that.
In that case, any idea that this will be the year when the government begins to plan for the post-Covid recovery are hopelessly misplaced. This will be a year of continuing substantial government deficits driven by low tax receipts, in particular, whilst demand on services will remain high, and will need to be met. Talk of austerity, tax increases and and such issue are all a long way from what will really be on he government agenda.
And Brexit will not go away. Talks on the many unresolved areas will drag on. The costs will become very apparent. Services will begin to appreciate how hard they are hit. Northern Ireland will realise that its supply chains now have to come from the south, and not from the rest of the UK. There will be recurring reports of jobs and investments lost as a result of Brexit related departures of business from the UK.
So, that's the background. What does this mean?
First, Covid, plus Brexit will mean very limited, if any economic recovery in the year. The OBR suggested that growth might be 5% or so assuming no Covid second wave. That now looks to be fanciful. Presuming we are in lockdown for several months from mid January onwards, as Covid deaths exceed 1,000 a day, the likelihood of any recovery is remote. Brexit simply adds to the likelihood.
Furlough will continue to April, but the gross unfairness of a scheme that provides considerable unemployment benefit if you happened to be in a particular type of employment at some point will become too unjust to maintain. Those who have lost their jobs, the self employed and others who fell through gaps, will demand change. I suspect Marcus Rashford will extend his demands to encompass this. Then reform will happen. The idea of some form of basic income may arrive in the UK sooner than anyone expected if tourism and hospitality have the year I expect.
Significant measures to support business will be required. Loans are now seen to be fraud ridden. So, apart from extended rates relief I also foresee compulsory rent reliefs, with landlords able to make partial recovery claims from the government.
With luck, strategically important businesses, large and small, will begin to get capital injections. But measures to prevent cronyism will be key. The stresses in the economy in 2021 are already potentially incendiary; it will not take much for anger to erupt. Failure to provide fairness will deliver it.
Second, the risk of cronyism will remain high. But the seeds of dissent will grow the longer it remains apparent. If it breaks out of the PPE sector I am not sure the anger will be contained.
Third, freeports will begin and be a feature of local government campaigns this May. Counter-arguments are essential, now. The freeports themselves will prove to be a damp squib.
Fourth, the change in relationships in Northern Ireland will be rapid. There is a real risk of stress as unionists realise just how badly they will think they have been treated by the UK. Ireland will continue careful diplomacy, backed by the EU.
Fifth, The SNP will win a landslide in Scotland in May. Johnson will still refuse a referendum. He will even refuse discussion on any real increase in devolved power, backed by Labour in Westminster. An intensely volatile situation will develop quite quickly. It may be a very tense summer. Scottish demands will not go away, and the SNP might have to grant what Westminster will seek to describe as an illegal referendum to keep the lid on stresses. A nation that has decided to be free, as Scotland almost certainly has, is not eventually stopped.
Sixth, the NHS will have a ghastly year. It will be overwhelmed by COVID. That is now almost unavoidable. Staff will suffer, considerably. It will be stressed beyond limits. The demand from the right that it must be broken up will becoming very strong. Labour will be left floundering, triangulating as ever. And the rise of new political sentiment around a revived commitment to public service is entirely possible. I cannot predict how that will happen. I think that a desire to support the NHS, care and education will underpin it when the essential nature of all three, and the lack of existing political support for them, becomes apparent.
Seventh, this concern will align with that on climate. COP 26 might happen, but what will be apparent is that it will be a cop out: the chance that business as normal will prevail in the face of the need for fundamental change will become very obvious. After the extended period of changed behaviour Covid will have already delivered many people will be open to new ways of thinking, and will appreciate that whatever there had been is no longer the answer to where we will be. It is just possible that this will be the year for the demand for real environmental change to become apparent. Increasing weather issues will fuel that. I expect flooding.
Eighth, the mainstream right wing media will do all it can to fight the NHS, teachers, care workers, the unemployed and those who want environmental change. The mantra that change will be unaffordable will echo around the country, and world. But the reality that money has been created for cronyism, the folly of Brexit and the gross mismanagement of PPE will make it clear that is not true. This will be the year for new economic narratives. These will not be called MMT. That is too hard to explain. Green and social QE will be what is demanded. That is, the money will not just be created now: its use will also be directed. The need to maintain economic discipline in a changed environment, and to tackle rising inequality will, in any case, demand this.
Ninth, although this will be the year of the delivery van, it will also be a year for new and local business as people consciously seek to support their communities.
And tenth? I think the threat of disruption in society will be so great that measures to tackle inequality will have to be taken by a government seeking to keep control when the risk of it losing it will be high.
In summary, this is going to be a year if very high political tension. The media will demand suppression. I very much doubt that will be possible when the reality of the next wave of Covid and all that follows from it is appreciated. Containment is the best this government can hope for, having failed to control the virus over the next few months. And that containment may not be possible. The idea that Covid was just a blip will disappear in 2021. The reality that Covid will change everything will arrive. And the politics of that are unknown, but presuming fascism can be prevented (and it is an ever present risk) then the foundations for real change may be laid.
2021 may go down in history.
And I could, of course, be completely wrong.
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This all looks pretty reasonable.
You mention COVID related restrictions still by the end of 2021 but I can’t see that happening to much of a degree. Any restrictions by then will be either completely toothless or will be the self imposed type restrictions.
It’s been hard enough to get the Tory libertarian psychopaths to vote for restrictions this year even when the death toll was clear to see. As soon as every clinically vulnerable, 70+ and possibly 60+ year old person that is going to get the vaccine has had it restrictions will disappear along with things like furlough.
Then the situation will get worse…
“Marcus Ashfield” – do you mean Marcus Rashford?
I do, of course
I missed the autocorrect
Sorry
Thanks Richard for all the useful information and views you have provided over the last year. All the best to you and your family during 2021. Keep up the good work.
I think us Scots will be following Calum’s example and doing it ourselves.
https://youtu.be/niTLH9VaKc4
Of course Covid is not the only pandemic the world is suffering from there has been a very long standing one going back thousands of years that only affects the brain.
This is not understanding the money process — “Money Covid”.
It’s not understanding it’s a double process of “advancing” money, bringing it from the future, and “retiring” it in the future from income streams whether it be government retirement in the shape of taxes and charges or repaying private sector bank loans.
It’s not understanding that in order to satisfy the desire to save and invest from savings in assets there’s only one source that allows this which is not fully retiring government advances.
Finally, it’s not understanding that for real prosperity it’s necessary to relinquish our unreasoned ideological obsession with reducing government deficits, recognising it’s the economy and not the government budget that needs balancing in terms of the demand for and supply of assets.
Here’s an addendum to the ancient pandemic of Money Covid. Given that most believe government’s should balance their books yet at any point in time a past fiscal deficit is money that hasn’t yet been taxed away there’s a question to be asked. Will voters be prepared to sell their homes for example, or re-mortgage them, to release that part of this asset that came from that past government deficit and enable a balancing of government books?
Like hell they will!
That’s why Money Covid is a form of madness affecting the brain!
You have pointed out the main indicators for future health, economic, social and environmental factors for 2021 and well beyond. The conjunction of all these enormous problems are probably unprecedented except for the world wars and previous plagues.
Whether the right -wing will even appreciate the enormity of what we face or continue to pretend that everything is fine and minor tweaking is all that is needed. Further mutations of Covid will increased as the virus spreads more so total lockdowns for months must happen to contain let alone suppress it. As you point out the population at large is not going to take all this calmly and any social unrest could soon run riot as the 2011 disturbances showed, starting in North London and spreading to most major cities showed. The institutions of social control are already weakened and the ruling class, totally divorced from the realities of ordinary life of most people are completely at a loss. our political system of first past the post is totally inadequate to reflect the needs and priorities for our very survival. There probably is a lot of “new thinking” going on to find ways out of this mess but the dominance of the right-wing is preventing any sort of discussion of progressive policies which is restricted at the moment to a few “fringe” groups that are discounted by the traditional establishment. True, we need to be positive and constructive but there is a huge mpountain to climb.
This is pretty good. It will be a watershed year globally.
Move to Scotland or Ireland. England is on course for some dark days.
“Fourth, the change in relationships in Northern Ireland will be rapid. There is a real risk of stress as unionists realise just how badly they will think they have been treated by the UK. Ireland will continue careful diplomacy, backed by the EU.”
Has some very interesting polticial implications – united Ireland will probably lead to a Sein fein government in Dublin and finally the irish will get some socialisim. The mob with the sashes will grind their teeth and make a decision on DUP in Dublin or merge with FF or FG and the political aspects of the 1000 year war (English elites vs ireland) draw to a close. The only puzzling part is that the DUP are surprised by their treatment by the English elites – who have been screwing the Irish in interesting ways for centuries – and thus why change now?
Not only the Irish being screwed by English elites hotel workers too:-
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/31/home-grown-hotels-one-of-138-rogue-employers-fined-over-minimum-wage
The message clearly is it helps to be a sociopath if you want to join the English elite.
Yes I do agree 2021 will see a sizeable change in society Especially the sociopathic Tory government We will see massive job losses A rise in anger against Furlough As many people will be resentful Against them for getting wages Whilst they had to work Throughout the Pandemic Social injustice will be the big player in 2021
A depressing summary to chill a New Year’s Eve but it’s Marcus Rashford.
Edited now. That was autocorrect at work
You’re far too upbeat for me, Richard.
2021 will see the authoritarian tendencies of Johnson, Gove and most of the rest of the Tory government (and party) run riot under the guise of: a/ delivering on the Brexit Bill and building a post Brexit Britain, and, b/battling Covid and the aftermath of Covid.
I’m pushed for time today to run through all the ways in which this will manifest itself, but amongst many expect the outlawing of a variety of ‘protest’ groups (Extinction Rebellion is just a taster); legislation to further limit the ability of any organisation with charitable status to say (publish, campaign, etc) anything on any issue deemed political by the Government); and legislation to terminate the Scots and Welsh parliament/assembly. Various excuses/reasons will be promoted for doing this – some of which have already been well rehearsed by various members of the Government – but I’ve no doubt that any move by the SNP to call a further vote on independence will be used as the final straw: the point beyond which no UK PM could tolerate the threat to the UK and thus the journey to the sunny uplands of post Brexit Britain which (it will be foghorned by the Government and right wing English press) the devolved administrations are working against.
My use of Britain rather than UK above is deliberate, as I’d also suggest that the Government has no further interest in keeping NI as a part of the UK and will quietly encourage the Irish government to assimilate the North until we have a united Ireland in all but name.
Of course, to ensure all this goes relatively smoothly there’ll be above inflation pay increases for the police and armed forces (where have we seen that before?) and major contracts for the providers of ‘private’ policing. As tensions within Britain rise – perhaps once it becomes apparent that the Cov19 vaccination programme is not moving as quickly and extensively as many people expect (and let’s not forget that to vaccinate the 60% – minimum – we need to get to a point of any effective ‘herd immunity at one million per week will take until at least November 2021), expect the Tory faithful (Johnson’s base) to be called on to form local militias to enforce whatever the dear leader and his government ask them to enforce.
So, 2021 looks like being a watershed year, I agree, but in a much darker way than even you assume.
Happy New Year!
Ivan
I think they will find that there is only so far that they can push people
I do nit think the police or forces want to get that extreme
And the level of protest will be uncontainable
I may be wrong of course. But I think they might think I am right
Either way, best for 2021
Richard
I wouldn’t be too sure about Sinn Fein getting into government in Ireland soon. They will only get there in a coalition, so the question is who would go into government with them. The FF-FG-Green coalition is in power until 2025 and I think there will be a fierce determination to make sure it runs its course in order to see off SF. The collapse of power sharing – I’m not saying I want it to happen – in the North would suit FF and FG politically in the Republic, as it would allow them to say that SF are incapable of governing.
It is extraordinary , that given what seems to be widespread support for NHS,Social Care, teachers,key workers, an apparent majority now regretting Brexit, and supporting Rashford’s feed the children etc that there is such a political vacuum, where opposition ought to be.
I thought that Starmer – while not an inspirational figure himself , was bright enough to try to pull together people of ideas inside and outide Labour, (Richard etc) and mobilise some kind of coalition of believable ideas to begin to inflict some significant damage to the ‘ruling ascendancy’.
Even the latter understands the need to create money – they have created it!- , to spout Green stuff, ‘build better’, and all the other vacuus sound bites’.
It ought to be childs play to come up with an entirely practical popular programme for this year, and the next five which actually does what they say they will do – and which can be used to ridicule their every soundbite.
Richard – can;t you (we?) get this started – sound out potential participants – including contacting Starmer’s entourage whoever they are?
Happy New Year – and thanks for this stimulating blog. How you have time to do it, cant imagine.
It is notoriously hard to break through
I promise you I use the contacts I have
I admit I do not advertise it – otherwise the contacts disappear
The Guardian today reports on a number of large, well known companies being fined for underpaying minimum wage employees. One hotel company caught up in this is a hotel company whose majority shareholder is Sir James Retcliffe. The company defence is the inadvertence of the error, due to the complexity of the legislation, especially interpreting it in the hospitality industry.
I understand that, although it is scant compensation for the underpaid, already badly paid employees (the errors happened in 2018). The Guardian reports an expert accountant’s opinion: “Jeni Morris, head of the national minimum wage team at accountants EY, added: ‘In my experience, most employers do not deliberately flout the NMW rules, but are inadvertently caught out by a number of technicalities in the complex legislation.'”
All fair enough, but as someone who was in business I have a simple question; how often and how much did these same companies err by overpaying employees, and how many employees had been overpaid over the same period? What management processes for constant review and oversight of payment accuracy all these erring companies since implemented, how widespread have the regulators ensured such processes are universal, and how often do the regulators audit the outcomes?
Oddly, I never faced any such risk when employing people
That’s because I always allowed more than a generous margin for error
And paying over the odds always paid anyway
It’s mainly executives, like Ocado’s Tim Steiner who are overpaid (in his case around 2600 times average employee) or board members of financial firms, such as Lloyds BG, who have deserved an overpayment, sorry, increase of around 80% since 2009, which in the case of Non-Execs is politely termed part-time work. But I don’t think much of it is due to “inadvertent error”. (all reported in this month’s Guardian)
Actually I was thinking of ‘overpayment’, inadvertently of minimum wage employees. The point I was attempting to make was one of ‘mindset’; the payment error does not need to be deliberate, but the ‘mindset’ of the management information system may be framed to examine overpayment more carefully than underpayment, especially at the lower, operational level. If there was both overpayment and underpayment of minimum wage employees, then this may merely represent a ‘random walk’ of the data in the management system, suggesting a broad and loose application of management scrutiny; if it is skewed one-way (say to ensure costs are not over budget), then without being deliberate this may lead to costs below budget (underpayments) not being scrutinised as closely, and represent instead something of the thematic ‘mind-set’ of management; what sort of thing it is more likely to examine closely.
It’s mainly executives, like Ocado’s Tim Steiner who are overpaid (in his case around 2600 times average employee) or board members of financial firms, such as Lloyds BG, who have deserved an overpayment, sorry, increase of around 80% since 2009, which in the case of Non-Execs is politely termed part-time work. But I don’t think much of it is due to “inadvertent error”. (all reported in this month’s Guardian)
What I dont understand is………….
1. Why not require Companies to have a Director with specific responsibility for NMW Compliance in the same way that there is one for Health & Safety., and
2. In the case of deliberate non compliance with not only Minimum Wage but Immigration, Tax & possibly some other legislation to withdraw Alcohol & Food licences as clearly if Companies dont comply with these rules that cant be treated as competent to deal with other safety critical areas.
It’s going to be another crazy year, that’s for sure.
Let’s hope that compassion and the common good prevails.
The Tories always get away with it, if they can keep 35% of the population “sweet’.
They may struggle to keep their electoral coalition together.
Larry Elliott says why all the doom and gloom a more prosperous Britain is in sight after the Tories Brexit Deal:-
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/31/the-left-brexit-economic-uk
No mention of Sunak trying to balance the government’s books I note!
I think Larry and I need to disagree over lunch
His optimism is misplaced
I went through the Larry Elliott article carefully trying to see what it is that we could do out of the EU that we could not do in the EU. There was nothing that Larry suggested that we could not do while still being in the EU. Am I missing something?
Perhaps when you have lunch you could ask him what specifically could we do out of the EU that we could not do in the EU.
I am still not sure what Larry’s argument is
I read this and was going to comment here, but I thought it must be a spoof, or Hogmanay had started early.
Wouldn’t surprise me if Wales tries to leave UK too. There seems to be a growing call for getting out and ruling themselves. In which case I hope Liverpool joins Wales! We’re mainly remainers here, though Wales weren’t I think they now realise what a crock of rubbish they were sold.
The vaccination programme is getting messed up already (quite apart from the change to the second jab). Husband had appointment for 5 Jan, got a call from NHS this morning to cancel. They told him they were having problems getting the vaccine. Will be back in touch when they have more.
I am not convinced Wales is ready to go as yet
And like it or not, it is not as strong an economy
There are big issues in its case
I really hope we can get past covid a.s.a.p.. so that we can concentrate on the far more serious pandemic, the existential threat to all mankind that, left unaddressed, will kill more people than Covid, Spanish Flu, Cholera, Typhoid, Hitler, Stalin, Hirohito, Mao, Smallpox and Ghengiz Khan put together, the climate emergency.
No other issue, brexit, tax justice, populist adulation of ignorance etc., comes even close and no significant political, religious or business leader is currently treating this issue with the urgency and importance that is required.
Campaigning, protesting or just getting generally upset about any other issue is to fiddle whilst Rome burns.
With apologies to Thunderclap Newman: “Call up the instigators because there’s something in the air”. Let 2021 be the year that the transformation starts.
PS: 2021 is 43×47 (both prime). What does that mean?
“so that we can concentrate on the far more serious pandemic, the existential threat to all mankind that, left unaddressed, will kill more people than Covid [and the rest…] put together, the climate emergency.
No other issue … comes even close and no significant political, religious or business leader is currently treating this issue with the urgency and importance that is required.”
Some have been uplifted by the stunningly beautiful firework displays. But children’s faces are beautiful yet we are destroying their lives and their chances.
In Greta Thunberg’s video a couple of days ago she says ‘The world has 7 YEARS’ CO2 BUDGET at the current rate’ …’the world’ — not just the UK or the rich nations. We need to act fast. I am a (retired) physics teacher and I am convinced that Greta has understood the science better than all but a few MPs, journalists and billionaires — including those who bombard us with adverts for goods designed to fail after a short while.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/29/we-cannot-make-it-without-science-greta-thunberg-says-climate-experts-are-being-ignored
Up to the end of 2020, humankind has: Increased atmospheric CO2 by 40% – Destroyed 80% of mammals, 50% plants and 15% of fish by biomass – Caused extinction rates to increase by a factor of nearly 1000.
My suggestions are that, to perpetuate the possibility of abundant human joy, It would be wise to campaign for:
(1) No fireworks anywhere for anything in 2022 (and ever after) — and start the ban now!
(2) No lights for anything other than necessary work, safety and security — campaign starts now. Not only for the saving of emissions but making unmistakeably visible that THERE IS AN EMERGENCY.
(3) No flights for anything other than necessary work, safety and security — campaign starts now…
(4) No use of private cars for anything other than necessary work, safety and security but … allow for a little leisure use.
Difficult? Yes — but I like children and I want to perpetuate the possibility of abundant human joy.
Jason Hickel’s “Less is More” spells out the futility of relying on believing that ‘negative emissions technolgies’ can have more than a marginal effect even if one is shown to work a bit, and where are the silver, copper and rare metals to come from without further destrying the ecosphere?
The persuit of ‘growth’ is folly.
To think about…..
“Labour In Exile” group now formed:-
https://skwawkbox.org/2020/12/29/purged-members-form-labour-in-exile-network-to-fight-reign-of-terror/
Opportunity to talk about MMT’s understanding of fiat money.
A little hope:
http://www.progressivepulse.org/brexit/happy-new-year-2
And if it doesn’t sound too hollow – it does – all the best to everyone for 2021…
All the best Peter
Agree with your sentiments Peter. This is no time to give up. Work to do to challenge every effort by the government to continue to blame what will be the UKs ever worsening problems on the EU, whilst they try to introduce ever more right wing policies. Public services and regulations will be under particular threat.
That means building the kind of progressive message and policies that will bring back a majority of voters. As long as the left fights with itself that will not happen – a progressive alliance of some kind will be needed.
As for Larry Elliot, I read his piece in some disbelief. He’d fit onto that boat with Hoey and Farage these days.
I’ll start with wishes of a Happy New Year everyone.
Now my tuppence:
We are in a war time economy.
With wartime levels of daily deaths – the several plane loads / ship full levels.
If it was ‘hero’s’ we’d be complaining l.
Plus many more uncounted casualties.
This is why we see wartime levels of profiteering. And Spivs. Many dynasties rose from the blood money in WW2 as no doubt many are now.
The Scotland issue will be manoeuvred into that conflagration, giving Nicola her excuse not to push for it. Maybe even a seat in a GNU…
The NHS is now on the ski jump slope. No stopping it.
The hard stuff (no guaranteed profits, hard work and much liability medical needs will be left to the gutted NHS. The rest is going private. With graded insurance cover that will strip thousands of pounds from families annually.
I expect the cold calls from Kaiser Permanante to start at 11.01 pm from tonight.
Typically of sovereignty back – couldn’t even manage it at Midnight GMT.
Anyway as fireworks are going off and many a jingoistic ones will at 11pm , I’m settled down with my bottled ales, dinner and a bit of year end Club accounts …not that I am accountant, so taking a while.
Have a fine evening and the happiest new year everyone.
We are as humans resilient and do eventually say enough. And that is a hope to hang onto and encourage through public discourse. Such as in this forum. Thank you prof for having us and look forward to your output to rally around.
All the best
Wishing everyone of good-will a Happy New Year for 2021.
And I’m saying that Wales will be leaving the sinking ship that is England as soon as possible.
Its economy isn’t any weaker than other small countries in the Eurozone, and it has realised just how disastrous Brexit’s going to be.
Good luck!
I have little doubt Wales will one day be independent
Agree that we are facing the outcome of a failed state in England. So what happens when Northern Ireland and Scotland depart (no mention of Gibraltar which already seems to have done it)? Does the English state double down and circle the wagons as in a good John Wayne movie? Does this not lead to a further suppression of civil liberties and the use of the Hong Kong playbook?
Happy New Year and thanks to you (most of all) and contributors for a very interesting forum.
England has to decide its own fate now
“The mantra that change will be unaffordable will echo around the country, and world.”
Rishi Sunak needs to be told it was highly probable the dumb action of a king led to full throttle MMT and the subsequent take-off of the British Industrial Revolution. This was a genuine “world-beating” first!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop_of_the_Exchequer
https://justmoney.org/c-desan-the-power-of-paradigms-in-histories-of-economic-development/
[…] By Richard Murphy, a chartered accountant and a political economist. He has been described by the Guardian newspaper as an “anti-poverty campaigner and tax expert”. He is Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London and Director of Tax Research UK. He is a non-executive director of Cambridge Econometrics. He is a member of the Progressive Economy Forum. Originally published at Tax Research UK […]