I recorded for Alex Salmond's television programme earlier this week. The broadcast is out tonight. In it Peter Oborne and I discuss the current state of the political economy in the UK and the countries that make it up. One question Alex asked was what the threats to the Johnson government are now.
I suggested that I saw three major threats, all of which would be internalised by his party.
The first was angry students, and even angrier parents as the scale of Covid 19 lockdowns, and the real risk of widespread outbreaks in halls of residence, grows. Students are not naturally compliant. Patents required to pay a lot for what looks like a second rate deal are getting angry.
Then there is Brexit and the real risk that this will give rise to food shortages in January, which is a month when we are at maximum imported food exposure, with much of it coming via Calais and Dover, where chaos is widely expected. People will not forgive a political party that deliberately create food shortages, or that creates deliberate food price inflation, which is inevitable from January onwards. The anger of parents who have difficulty feeding their children will be hard to contain.
Third, there is a coming unemployment crisis. I find it very hard to believe that many of the 3 million also people still on furlough will have jobs by Christmas, most especially when so many very vulnerable sectors are now operating under restrictive measures again, with threats to business viability now being very high indeed. People who are out of work, and with no apparent prospect of securing it, and who are at threat of losing their homes as a consequence, have nothing more to lose. Governments need to be very worried about creating millions of such people.
My suggestion to Alex Salmond was that putting these three risks together into one melting pot to which the government was now applying more than gentle heat was going to be calamitous for the Johnson administration. Peter Oborne suggested that he could not see it surviving: his suggestion was that a national government under Keir Starmer is likely next year.
The agreement was that we are in for a very rough ride. I think that the programme should be worth watching.
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A national government headed by the leader of the opposition? Seems unlikely to me. Johnson may be toast, but there are plenty of others in his own party who’d like the job, and they have an 80 seat majority. Why would they need to bother reaching across the aisle? Change the leader, change course. Job done. I suspect he will declare Brexit as “done” (possibly with a cobbled together threadbare last minute deal of sorts with the EU) and resign due to his health and to spend more time with his family in January or February. Sunak already appears anointed as leader in waiting.
The question will be whether the Tories can persuade people to do what they want
All government is by consent at the end of the day
I’d very much like to see this program. What’s it called, on what channel and what time does it take place tonight? Hopefully it’s on Freeview as those are the only channels I can watch, when I bother watching television that is!
RT, later today
I will put the youtube up here
Double, double, toil and trouble,
Fire burn and caldron bubble,
In the caldron boil and bake;
Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.
You got my reference…
Yep, but I meant all of. You are the prophetic witches and “the king hereafter” is on the way to being toppled.
I hope so
It does feel possible
Perhaps. However, I remember my university days when a friend as a joke started an apathy society. To the few that turned up for the inaugural meeting, he handed out a note saying “Go away you are not apathetic enough”.
“…a national government under Keir Starmer is likely next year.”
I don’t see how that will come about. Surely it would require large numbers of Tory MPs to vote against their own party (or abstain) in a confidence vote. I can’t see them doing that; or is there another mechanism for ousting a failing government ?
I think we are living in extraordinary times
This is not my prediction but I see it as plausible
History repeats itself. This article in today’s Guardian adds weight to the thesis that a tide of rising anger will be one of the factors that “does this government in”, to coin a phrase….
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/30/hundreds-of-thousands-who-lost-jobs-in-pandemic-denied-universal-credit
Any changes in society are normally given shape in and by the class of people covered by the article, who, as is the nature of such things, are unaware of the inhumane design of our “social safety net”. It’s not the sort of thing that made for polite conversation.
Well, it does now!
I suppose another issue is whether Keir Starmer has it in him to be another Ramsey MacDonald.
Many people are going to get the shock of their lives
Whether any party has the understanding to get out of this is open to question
“ The first was angry students, and even angrier parents as the scale of Covid 19 lockdowns”
What do you want instead? Remote learning from home, where kids are stuck with their parents?.. or have no lockdown and see how it goes?.. or just delay all university life and pick it up in a year or so?
We all face restrictions and constraints on our life, especially the older generation. Of course any individual student had the choice to delay entry for a year if they wish. I suggest students make best of what is a bad situation for everyone and get on with it.
You can suggest what you like
That will not change the fact that many students and their parents seem to be pretty angry right now
I don’t think they are a tipping point: they do add to the brew that will deliver one
Is it on the RT channel? I seem to remember that Alex Salmond has a show on that channel.
Regards,
Craig
It is – but I will put the Youtube up here
Alex Salmond is a Marmite Figure. I for one admire him greatly, even more since his RT shows. If you can’t stand him, shut your eyes and listen as he lets his guests speak openly and without interruption unlike other presenters and interviewers.
His show on 26 March 2020 with the leaders of the DUP and UUP was so illuminating.
You are right about him as an interviewer
He actually respects his guests
And I am also aware that, as he says, he is no saint.
Morning Richard
I take no joy from the fact that what you were predicting back in March/April is now being reported by a number of individuals/organisations.
Could you please give me the details of how I could watch your broadcast tonight? Many thanks
It is on RT
I will put the Youtube up when I have it
The history of revolt, uprising, dissent in the British Isles is not a happy one. Sometimes the State give a little but ensures it retains power where it matters (hence FPTP), but more often it uses force. Thatcher’s miners’ strike, for example.
The channel — available on Freeview — is Russia Today, in case “RE” puzzles folk.
Thanks
RE was an auto correct
Grrrrrr…..
I was reading Tim Morgans latest post
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/10/01/182-the-castaways-dilemma-part-two/
He made a very interesting point here
All of this changes when you introduce the futurity of leverage into the equation. Whether it’s a household, a business or an economy, a significant part of future income is now earmarked for debt service. In this way, financialization of the economy takes away resilience. A person or a business with debt to service loses the ability to cope with static or declining income, primarily because the financial system discounts a future wholly predicated on the assumption of perpetual expansion…………..
Now, if millions are plunged into unemployment that means millions of loans, mortgages & rents falling into arrears in an over extended financial system.
There is of course a massive question to be addressed about the level of ‘non state’ debt in the economy
What then?
He is right
Jubilee.
This not a new problem and the answer from 4 thousand years ago still has relevance today – debt forgiveness/cancellation
In some areas this has to be on the agenda
But surely Alex Salmond was found guilty by the high court judges of BBC Scotland – Kirsty Wark and Sarah Smith?
https://t.co/GvFnAIsU3q?amp=1
I think this should give a link to the Alex Salmond show. I enjoyed Richard’s appearance on it. I watch it every week. Last weeks episode about covid was also very informative. I find RT quite good as its nice to get away from the overwhelming UK propaganda.
Clicking it, I get a Youtube premiere at 2100 (BST) (on 2020-10-01) of the Alex Salmon show ‘Can Boris Survive’… back later to watch
Live now….
Sorry Richard that’s an incorrect link.
Apologies
But I can’t even see it now to correct it
If you will let me be allowed to be accused of a bit of hyperbolism.
A GNU has been the plan for quite some time. I did posit it some time ago. It has been talked about since the failure to hand the baton to a NuLabInc administration to follow through on a hard brexit and finally dismantle the NHS that was created by post war Labour. A historical betrayal that could then not be blamed on the Tories but a Labour Party, that invented it.
The GNU was only delayed until the Corbynites were ousted.
Now it is all systems go. Bozo will have earmed his seat by delivering the hard BrexShit that May couldn’t. The chaos will be used as his mea culpa, and excuse to escape to his payoff just as Cameron and co did with the delivery of tge vote. Leaving it to others to run the next leg! The chaos is planned and part of the grand plan A, from Day 1. A Hard BrexShit.
Starmer and the GNU will implement it, in its full glory! With full approval of all ‘voters’ and Media.
The episode on RT
https://www.rt.com/shows/alex-salmond-show/502149-boris-johnson-lockdown-measures/
The episode on YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEGRuuj5ypo
Try this
https://www.rt.com/shows/alex-salmond-show
The big risk – and believe you me it will be promoted behind the scenes – is that society will start to look sideways for blame rather then upwards.
That is where the fracture lines will be.