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Invade Cayman?

06-Jan-09

David Cay Johnston has an article in Mother Jones in the US in which he says (amongst much else):

In 1983 just 10 percent of America’s corporate profits were funneled through places that charge little or no corporate income tax; today more than 25 percent of profits go through tax havens. The Obama administration could tell the Caymans-now fifth in the world in bank deposits-to repeal its bank secrecy laws or be invaded; since the island nation’s total armed forces consists of about 300 police officers, it shouldn’t be hard for technicians and auditors, accompanied by a few Marines, to fly in and seize all the records. Bermuda, which relies on the Royal Navy for its military, could be next, and so on. Long before we get to Switzerland and Luxembourg, their governments should have gotten the message.

Now even I don’t go that far! Actually, nor does he:

Barring gunboat diplomacy (tempting as it is), there is no reason we cannot pass laws to block financial transactions with tax havens or even, Cuba-style, make it a crime for Americans to visit or do business with them without special permission. Congress could declare the hiding of funds a threat to national security and require that anyone with offshore assets disclose them to the IRS within 30 days and pay taxes, interest, and penalties within 180 days. For the holdouts, temporary special teams in the IRS and Justice Department could speedily pursue civil or criminal charges.

The analogy with Cuba is interesting: Cayman is now much more dangerous to the US.

He also ignores things like country by country reporting. And he ignores the fact that international cooperation is essential to close the threat of tax havens, the US cannot do this one alone, but his understanding of the significance of the issue is spot on.

If the OECD is on the ball it will be calling all affected (by which I mean harmed) parties together on this issue very soon. Progress is essential.

PS I see that in Tax Notes he expands the idea….take a read….as he notes, the Cayman’s defence for what they do is pure hypocrisy

Worstall of the Adam Smith Institute admits markets don’t work

06-Jan-09

I thought I’d finished with Tim Worstall. But not quite as it turns out, for he left a comment on this blog yesterday which really does blow his whole position apart.

I’d said:

It is impossible to suppose that a man who can argue (as you did in the Guardian, very recently) that “Things in markets are worth what the markets say they are worth” is a true heir of [Adam] Smith

His response? This:

As I’ve said before, no one thinks that all markets all the time produces the optimal allocation of resources.

The argument is not over whether markets *always* produce either “just and moral” prices, as opposed to simply market prices, or whether they *always* produce an optimal allocation of resources. It’s over when and where do they and when and where do they not.

That’s fine Tim. I agree. But let’s be clear what you have conceded here. What you’re saying is:

1) Markets don’t necessarily produce the optimal allocation of resources;

2) We don’t know when they do, and when they don’t;

3) In that case the economics you espouse provides us with no useful information - we’re left making our own choices;

4) In that case you either can’t sustain your claim that economics is a rational science, or alternatively you can say it is, but the results it produces are of no use to anyone;

5) As a result economic decisions are always subjective;

6) The economic theory you espouse can never be used to justify intervention in the economy because it is clear that it cannot predict optimal outcomes, and we could not tell is those had been achieved in any event.

Put bluntly, this means you’re about as far away from objectivity as it is possible to get: you pretend you’re objective when you know you’re not. That’s not just a failure of objectivity and a lapse into subjectivity, it’s rank hypocrisy.

And it’s rank hypocrisy that you use for a particular purpose, which is always to favour markets when they suit the well off and to oppose regulation when it suits the least well off. This is readily apparent from your argument against the minimum wage recently where you said there was a moral argument for abolition because this interfered with market outcomes: market outcomes you now admit you cannot predict. The only morality on offer therefore was your own, designed in this case to harm the well-being of those on the lowest pay in our society.

At some points over the last couple of weeks I seriously wondered why I bothered to engage with you. Now I know two things: one you definitely do not know what you’re arguing, and second that all the arguments you and your ASI colleagues put forward for the supremacy of the market are pure bunkum: they’re simply a subjective argument for the endowment of favour on those you choose.

It was worth getting to this point. The argument with you has been won. I’m satisfied with that outcome. So please don’t bother me again: it’s now abundantly clear it’s not worth my time dealing with you or your like.

The Green New Deal: reconciling the dilemma across the political spectrum

06-Jan-09

From today’s Guardian editorial:

Voters are left with a choice, then, between Mr Brown’s shopping list of jobs for today, and Mr Cameron’s wishlist for a green tomorrow. Which sums up the tension in any green job-creation programme: is it about environmental sustainability (a long-haul game and about as structural as one gets), or about providing a cushion in a recession (usually a short-term, cyclical, fix)? The Green New Deal group (which includes this paper’s economics editor, Larry Elliott) has done some excellent thinking on how to reconcile the two, but in mainstream politics only the Liberal Democrats have come up with a plausible sounding plan for a green recession and a sustainable recovery.

Correct.

Breaking open a Swiss Bank

06-Jan-09

Lucy Komisar has an article in the Mail on Swiss bank Julius Baer. The article is prefaced:

As anger mounts about the global economic meltdown, Barack Obama and other leaders are promising a war on offshore tax avoidance. But as this investigation into Swiss bank Julius Baer reveals, it will be a huge challenge.

What follows is a description of the artificial structures banks pout in place in an effort to justify the relocation of their profits to places like Cayman. It’s well worth reading. It all seems entirely plausible.

So too are the comments. The first says:

Don’t they have enough to sort out without going after this lot, if you keep destroying the money makers, pretty soon nobody is going to be making anything. Joe public will not see a drop in our tax rates, so its just more money for the government to fritter away. Let the off shore boys keep it, it does then arrive in the economy somewhere and not direct to a CService pension fund

- Jon, Wiltshire

That’s full on Daily Mail prejudice for you. But it’s wrong. The second says:

Jon

Offshore makes nothing: let’s be clear about that. What it does is free-ride on those who do make real money - here in the UK, and in other major economies. What it does is let those with resources not pay the tax they rightly owe in the places where they really make their money, so undermining the rule of law, undermining democracy by denying resources to democratically elected governments to fulfil their mandate, undermining the regulation that protects us all from abuse, and in the process promoting secrecy that allows corruption to flourish.

But Lucy is wrong to be pessimistic: if we work on a case by case basis offshore will be hard to crack. That is why the real option is sanctions: hard economic sanctions to stop the economic warfare that these places wage on our state. And to stop these places providing ‘the get out of regulation free’ card that our banks are using.

Richard Murphy

Congratulations to Lucy for getting this out; it’s another useful case study.


Cameron loses the plot

05-Jan-09

David Cameron has announced his big new plan to tackle the recession. He’s going to increase the personal allowance for pensioners by £2,000 a year and make abolish basic rate tax on savings income

There’s only one good thing to say about this plan: the man has clearly shown his true colours.

The fact is that there is no way we can save our way out of a recession: we can only spend and work our way out of one. But Cameron clearly sees it otherwise. He wants to help savers and cut government spending, both moves guaranteed at this time to reduce economic activity and so deepen the recession and encourage deflation. as an economic policy it’s incompetent in the extreme.

It’s also inept social policy. It helps those who already have wealth, and not the jobless. It helps the tax avoidance industry. It helps bankers. And whilst it will help pensioners (to which I do not object) it does not help those in society suffering paying their mortgages, who candidly may be in much greater need. As a result it appeals to every Tory agenda: wealth, tax abuse, undermining the economy and increasing the gap between rich and poor. Fabulous.

And let’s just think for a moment about how this complicates the tax system. Can’t you just imagine the acres of legislation this will require? That’s also blown the tax simplification agenda apart, forever.

Not a good move David, not a good move at all.

Wostall, asking the wrong questions

05-Jan-09

Tim Worstall and his friends on the libertarian far right have had a fun time over Christmas. It would seem they have decided that I am to be their bogeyman, and the abuse has been flowing. Some has been blatantly offensive; when published on slightly more respectable sites such as the Spectator it has to be a little more polite.

Take this blog on the Spectator site written anonymously, but I am sure by Worstall, which he starts by saying:

“I rag on Richard Murphy a great deal. I think he’s extraordinarily wrong headed but that’s not normally enough to get my dander up. The unfortunate fact is that he’s also get a certain amount of power in our current political system. He writes reports for the TUC, he gives evidence to Commons committees and the like. His pamphlets are approvingly noted by such luminaries as Nick Cohen, Michael Meacher, Polly Toynbee….and such luminaries they are.”

He then proceeds to quote at length a blog, also written anonymously - these guys have such considerable belief in their arguments that this is their normal chosen modus operandi - in response to mine on the nature of the audit failures associated with the Madoff affair. The quoted blog is somewhat less polite - as is usual at this end of the political spectrum - but what is really interesting is that the supposed analysis of this blog apparently proves that “Richard Murphy’s inability to master some of the most basic concepts of his profession” requires Worstall to ask “why does someone so spectacularly wrong on his supposed subject of expertise have such power and influence in our political system?”

Well, it’s an interesting question, and it is kind of him to suggest I have rather more power and influence that I am aware of. Of course the question he asks may not be as interesting as asking why he is so obsessed with me if he thinks I am so wrong, but let’s for a moment address the issues in these blogs that seek to question my professional ability.

They do so, if I summarise the considerable diatribe that Worstall offers to his reader, by saying that under current auditing regulations the audits of the feeder funds to the Madoff hedge funds were properly conducted. And, in between the abuse, they go on to argue that if that is the case then there is no audit issue to address with regard to the Madoff funds bar the apparent failure of the SEC to notice that the fund auditor was inappropriate for the task and not authorised to undertake it. As such Worstall and his crony argue that I entirely miss the point in my blog: there is no audit issue of concern here they say, it is a simple matter of regulatory failure which I have failed to point out, so showing I not only do not understand audits but also showing I do not understand regulation. I have probably saved you considerable time by summarising their argument in this way.

Except that this counter argument, in typical Worstall style, is constructed to suit his purpose and entirely misses the point. My argument was not that the feeder fund audits failed per se, but that over the last decade or so the combination of the introduction of almost universal mark to market accounting coupled with considerable revision to international auditing standards has meant that the checks and balances inherent in auditing before that change took place have been lost. My point was that when we had historic cost accounting and auditors were required to offer an opinion on the truth and fairness per se of the accounts on which they reported, rather than the truth and fairness in accordance with a specific set of rules - which is something entirely different - the auditor had to undertake two tasks when verifying the value attributed to an asset.

The first task was to determine the asset’s cost. The second was to determine if that remained a fair estimate of its value - for which a number of possible bases of calculation were available, which were by no means limited to current market worth. In the process the auditor was likely to undertake some due diligence on the asset in question - and if it was material, as it would appear many of the Madoff investments were to the funds in question - that audit work might require that the auditor of the feeder fund procure a copy of its accounts and at the very least scrutinise them to determine whether underlying value existed.

Now, Worstall (who is a chartered accountant) and his anonymous auditing blogging ally might have audited in a very different way from me. Maybe they also look at accounts in a very different way from me, but when I was recently lecturing to some journalists on how to interpret accounts they presented several sets of accounts to me during the seminar that I had not previously seen. And one of the first things I told them to look out for was the audit, and who the auditor was - in the example in question because the first thing I noted was that the auditor of one of the companies in question had recently and rather notoriously gone bust. An immediate question about the credibility of the accounts was the obvious concern I raised. And so would I have done if I had been the Madoff feeder fund auditor and I had seen that the accounts in question were audited by a firm I had never heard of, and which I might (I suspect easily) have found was not registered to undertake the task.

But this is not what is asked of an auditor now, and that was my point. I did not say as a result that the audits were per se wrong, the point I was making was that the audit system was at fault. I happen to think the biggest firms of accountants are responsible for that, and by chance audited these funds, but that does not change my assertion that this was not therefore a system error, but a systemic error. Now the difference is fundamental here, and I am certain Worstall is aware of the difference (because he tells me, often, that he is much cleverer than me).

The fact is though that Worstall and his like are committed to their vision of ‘free markets’. The whole ‘fair value’ approach to accounting coupled with the lax regulatory environment for auditing which international auditing standards have permitted is key to his vision of unaccountable capital. And so he is desperate to prove that Madoff is simply a rogue, a one off, a bad apple, and all the other descriptions used of Enron in the past. More than that, because he hates government with a vengeance, believing it can only do wrong, he wants to prove that the failure was the fault of the US government through the SEC (no doubt in turn to ensure government will be liable for compensating the investors, which I am sure he thinks is the only fair use of taxpayer money).

I on the other hand am saying that the failure is a systemic one resulting from the self-regulation of the accounting and auditing professions which have meant that they have failed to act in the pubic interest, and that this is simple demonstration of that fact.

Now does that prove I’m dim, as Worstall’s source would argue, or does it maybe prove that I have asked a question which frightens the wits out of Worstall and which he knows he must challenge if his perception of unfettered capitalism is to survive?

And does it maybe prove that rather than tackle the issues of importance he does instead resort to his usual line of attack - which is to offer abuse in the hope that no one else will be so unwise as to join me in challenging him because of the rather nasty line in argument which he and his colleagues deliberately use; an approach which, I am sure, is used with the deliberate intent of frightening reasonable people out of the debate?

And is that maybe he answers his own question - because it seems to me that I and the few colleagues brave enough to join me in this debate, such as Prem Sikka, Francine McKenna, Dennis Howlett, and on tax John Christensen, have attracted so much notice because we have been willing to stand up against the thugs and bullies like Worstall who are more than willing to do the profession’s dirty work, and raise the vital questions that must be placed before the accounting, auditing and tax professions.

That Tim is why I have the power you attribute to me. That’s also, I suggest Tim, why you spend so much time seeking to argue with me despite your claim that I am so deeply ignorant that I am beneath your contempt. It’s because you’re deeply rattled because your whole world is (rightly) falling apart around your ears as society appreciates just how anti-social and dangerous the views you hold are, and that you are terrified that some more from the profession will stand up with us and say that it really is wearing no clothes.

Trouble is Tim, you’ve picked the wrong targets. There may not be many of us on our side, but the power of our arguments, and the courage with which we have presented them, are the precise reasons why we are listened to. And the exact reasons why you, your fellow libertarians and the Adam Smith Institute are heading for a very long spell in the wilderness.

You’ve got to start asking why tax havens exist, and cause so much abuse, why the accountancy profession so clearly mis-stated the results of our major companies, why auditors failed in their duty to protect shareholders, why the income distribution in our society is so clearly unjust, why Africa continues to get a bad deal and why the Washington consensus so clearly failed it, and more if you are to be listened to Tim. And you’ve got to provide answers that appeal to people’s sense of justice if you are to have any chance of seeing your ideas implemented. Do that and you’re in the debate. Right now it seems to me and others who have followed what you have written that you’re just shouting abuse from the back of the stands, and not even from the sidelines. Which is why I’m going to be ignoring you until you have something useful to say.

PS For more on Worstall’s inability to argue, see here.

Adam Smith Institute get it very, very wrong

05-Jan-09

My attention has been drawn to an Adam Smith Institute (ASI) report of 24 November in which they suggested the personal allowance for all people in the UK should be raised to £12,000. I’m not sure which tax year they propose the change in: I’ll assume 2009/10 when the allowance will be £6,475 as opposed to £6,035 this year. They said this “would take 7 million low-paid workers out of the income tax net altogether. People earning the minimum wage or less would pay no income tax at all.”

There are some considerable problems with that claim. For a start national insurance is for all practical purposes a tax on income. I note they took no measure to stop this highly regressive tax being charged on people in that income bracket, which is odd. And there are other very odd elements to this plan. Take this summary of its consequences as a start point:

This tax cut would put almost £19bn per year back in people’s pockets, allowing considerable additional spending and investment in the productive, private sector economy. This is the key to overcoming recession and restoring economic growth.

If the higher rate threshold were kept at its current level, rather than raised in line with the personal allowance, this policy would cost the Exchequer just £18.9bn a year in lost revenue (it would cost £25bn if we raised the higher rate threshold too). Of course, this calculation is based on a static analysis, and because of the effects outlined above, the actual loss could turn out to be smaller.

Either way, I argue strongly against the government financing this tax cut with increased borrowing, suggesting they balance it by reducing public sector waste and cutting spending on non-essential programmes instead. The taxpayer already spends more than £30bn a year on servicing government debt, and we shouldn’t add to that burden when there is so much fat to be trimmed elsewhere.

The ASI and their supporters argue there is a fiscal stimulus in here. That’s completely untrue. First of all note they plan to cut government spending by an amount equal to the tax cut. That’s hard to interpret as a fiscal stimulus. At best it is neutral. I suggest even that is unlikely for whilst the ASI may not have noticed it, government spending does actually result in real economic activity in the UK economy. Cutting that spending will mean real loss of income which the tax cut need not make up. And contrary to the implicit ASI belief that cutting taxes creates growth because they believe the UK is on the downward sloping, post peak, part of the Laffer curve there is no evidence whatsoever to support that analysis.

Second, despite all their repeated claims of government waste I always note how hard it is for people who transfer from the private sector to actually find any to eliminate within the public sector. I also have watched with amusement the claim by Jersey made three or so years ago that it would cut just £20 million out of its government spending as a result of eliminating waste - and that they have so far (despite their right-wing stance) completely failed to do so, state spending having risen year on year. The net result is that this target of reduced spending will only be achieved by real spending cuts - probably hitting the poorest in our communities who have the highest spending ratios, and who will therefore contribute the most to ending recession.

Third, a significant part of the tax cut the ASI propose will go in large part to those on highest income - for someone earning from about £12,000 to £40,000 the saving will be worth £1,105 (£12,000 less £6,475 = £5,525, multiplied by the 20% tax rate = £1,105 a year - which makes the claim they will be £100 a month better off look slightly odd). The ASI ignore the fact that those on higher rate will enjoy a saving of double that - £2,210, which is odd, don’t you think?

Last, they also ignore the fact that there is in recession no evidence at all that extra cash is spent on “considerable additional spending and investment in the productive, private sector economy”. Maybe they haven’t noticed that the whole problem of the 1930s was that the private sector was entirely unable by itself to end the recession: the whole basis of Keynes’ work was to show how once in recession the private sector and the savings it generated were, if anything, likely to exacerbate its effects and the only way out was for the state to inject funds to kick start spending again. But the ASI policy is to do exactly the opposite. They want to give money to individuals who are highly likely to use it to save or repay debt - and so compound the fiscal deflator of the cut in government spending they propose and so compound the depth of the recession.

I am of course well aware that Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling have used VAT for a fiscal stimulus - a policy I oppose - but at least people have to spend to get the advantage of that. Under the ASI plan even that is not needed. Rarely have I seen a plan better designed to increase the impact of a recession.

Is that what they want? Or is ti just a matter of dogma before people?

Either way this is very, very misguided.







Tax Freedom Day for Goldman Sachs has already happened

05-Jan-09

Goldman Sachs paid tax at an effective rate of 0.6% in the year to 30 November 2008. If that is replicated this year that means that their tax freedom day fell on 2 January, but since most people weren’t around then, I thought I’d mention it now.

And yet the Adam Smith Institute argue that Tax Freedom Day is on June 2nd.

Why do they spread such misinformation which so obviously ignores the fact that the tax burden is spread so unfairly in society?

Brown unveils plan to create 100,000 jobs

04-Jan-09

Everyone else seems to be calling it the Green New Deal.

Why shouldn’t I?

It’s what we need.

My del.icio.us bookmarks for January 2nd

02-Jan-09

These are my links for January 2nd: